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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

2016- Matthew (165mph)

2017- Irma (180mph), Maria (175mph)

2018- Michael (160mph)

2019- Dorian (185, T-2nd strongest Atlantic hurricane on record)

 

*Note: I only used Cat 5s, but we have had several more Cat 4s (like Joaquin, Harvey, and Jose) as well

There was a tweet of that with the eye images -

 

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3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Per GRLevelxx software since 20z to present (using markers) crawling, wobbling general movement is at 261 degrees.

With present storm nav parameters [  ] , if it holds that 261° heading it will LF ~24 miles south of West Palm Beach, wherever that might be, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale?

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6 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

With present storm nav parameters [  ] , if it holds that 261° heading it will LF ~24 miles south of West Palm Beach, wherever that might be, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale?

Not sure it's a good idea to put speculations on definitive landfalls...may confuse the lurking public!

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Three out of the last four years that South Carolina has had a hurricane evacuation. Matthew 2016, Florence 2018, Dorian this year. There hadn’t been one since Floyd in 1999.

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1 minute ago, sctvman said:

Three out of the last four years that South Carolina has had a hurricane evacuation. Matthew 2016, Florence 2018, Dorian this year. There hadn’t been one since Floyd in 1999.

I was stationed in SC for Floyd. They told us to leave and come back in 2 days...came back and there was no damage to the area at all. 

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2 minutes ago, sctvman said:

Three out of the last four years that South Carolina has had a hurricane evacuation. Matthew 2016, Florence 2018, Dorian this year. There hadn’t been one since Floyd in 1999.

Don't forget Irma in 2017. This is 4 in a row for Charleston.

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This storm is projected to move about a degree west and about a little less then a degree north in the next 36 hours. The speculation over a few radar loops is near dangerous considering we have a lot of lurkers who come on here for info. Let’s try to be careful in a storm thread...

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I've watched these so many times. Just watch it notch along for the next 24 hours. Assuming it survives, it's directly in the path of Dorian's eye.

You can also graph wind direction as it swings, this one, and LKWF1, 41009 have been tracking Dorian's effects too.

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas,  C-MAN WX station:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

 

 

plot_wind_pres (5).png

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Is this suggesting there is a more significant ridging still in place than suggested? 

He's saying the modeled forecast had 591 dm heights backed NE of Dorian @ this hour with a sub 590 dm weakness / trough breaking into the Tennessee Valley. But real time obs show 591 dm heights still over the southern TN Valley and Southeast. It doesn't mean the trough isn't decreasing heights however and the end result will inevitably still turn Dorian to the NW-NNW. But the key point and discussion is when? With heights falling slower, will that turn be delayed? Will it be after Dorian stalls? Will Dorian never stall and continue into a slower bend to the NW? Ramification of these scenarios for greater or less impact to the Florida coast and downstream up towards the Carolinas.

 

 

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NHC 10 pm update (heading/speed unchanged) -

Quote
493 
WTNT65 KNHC 020152
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN BEGINNING TO CROSS EASTERN
GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the northern portion of the island. Residents in
eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western portion of
the eyewall.  Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over,
as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of Grand
Bahama Island tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Josh been heard from?

Nothing since around noon when things appeared to start to get bad there, though I wouldn’t expect to hear anything for awhile given the situation.

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Had been looking for a source and found it!  Recent MW imagery of Dorian (you can see a bit of disruption as it passed over the first island) -
hurricane-dorian-microwave-1030pm-09012019.gif.d035f9a668ca6ee4160e06ab11e6f2ce.gif


This just substantiates my post earlier that when you have a strong Cat 5 that requires pristine conditions to maintain its structure, even a tiny bit of land interaction/disruption from the islands can have an effect.
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16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Had been looking for a source and found it!  Recent MW imagery of Dorian (you can see a bit of disruption as it passed over the first island) -

hurricane-dorian-microwave-1030pm-09012019.gif

Have to say that there was no such shift or wobble in the eye evident during the passage in the excellent satellite imagery offered by the College of DuPage here:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I believe it may be an artifact of this particular display, rather than a real phenomenon.

 

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4 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said:

There was just another wobble south looking at the visible satellite.  Very slight, but still noticeable.  

I think it briefly went due west but then resumed the 260 motion again soon after 

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