• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This thing is going to have to start the northerly turn in the next 12-18hrs so as to not put the eastern coast of Florida in the western eyewall.

That has been my concern all along....concern regarding proper modeling of the strength of the ridge to its north and any apparent weakness from an incoming trough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Just one - and he has already done it with a different storm... LOL

hehehe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 PM NHC update statement -

Quote
199 
WTNT65 KNHC 020053
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are
experiencing the western eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the
eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side
of the eye.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't see it posted, but Levi Cowan is suggesting the reason the HWRF is more west is because it's portraying a weaker storm than the GFS/ECMWF as a result of upwelling.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I went back and looked at the 12Z GFS forecast positions at 06Z and 12Z.  Neither one has much of any shot at this point to not be too far north.  In order to reach the forecast position at 12Z tomorrow from today’s 12Z GFS it would have to move something like 320 degrees from where it is now 

Could you please elaborate on that I’m a newbie and don’t quite understand thatCould you please elaborate on that I’m a newbie and don’t quite understand that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jesssean said:

Could you please elaborate on that I’m a newbie and don’t quite understand thatCould you please elaborate on that I’m a newbie and don’t quite understand that

It is going to be further west than the model has been showing... Point blank

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slowing down per latest update.  That should allow for the storm to drift more northerly as the storm would be more easily impacted by the upper air steering currents.

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Slowing down per latest update.  That should allow for the storm to drift more northerly as the storm would be more easily impacted by the upper air steering currents.

 

Time to down your hurricane outerwear. LMFAO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Slowing down per latest update.  That should allow for the storm to drift more northerly as the storm would be more easily impacted by the upper air steering currents.

 

It has been moving at 5mph the last several hours... So same motion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It is going to be further west than the model has been showing... Point blank

Thank you 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Slowing down per latest update.  That should allow for the storm to drift more northerly as the storm would be more easily impacted by the upper air steering currents.

 

It's been the same speed for the last 2 advisories (5mph)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Levi's analysis on tropical tidbits it's worth watching. Storm that weakens is not as tall in the atmosphere it is guided more by low-level flow. Low level flow in this instance is more easterly which could bring Dorian slightly further west than GFS or Euro are indicating. He explains it well in his analysis posted  last hour

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of implications downstream, the current wobble/heading looks really bad for Grand Bahama Island. 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Per GRLevelxx software since 20z to present (using markers) crawling, wobbling general movement is at 261 degrees.

Sniffing out the water on the south side of the island.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Per GRLevelxx software since 20z to present (using markers) crawling, wobbling general movement is at 261 degrees.

It's 262 degrees between the last 2 recon fixes. Slow wobbly spinning circle of death gonna wobble.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.