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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

17 sustained with gust to 30 now in Stuart. First band about to move in 

Mike Seidel strapped on the harness for his live shot when that band came thru. Could barely stand 

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Should be noted for those paying close attention to the forward speed, that Dorian is not modeled to stall/slow down to a crawl until after Grand Bahama/Freeport.

Roughly how long till it makes it there?

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Mike Seidel strapped on the harness for his live shot when that band came thru. Could barely stand 

maybe i missed it earlier in this thread. but who is at what locations for The Weather Channel, Weather Nation, A-w 24/7, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox (Weather Network in Canada is a bonus)?

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4 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

maybe i missed it earlier in this thread. but who is at what locations for The Weather Channel, Weather Nation, A-w 24/7, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox (Weather Network in Canada is a bonus)?

The Weather Network (Canada) has three people in Vero Beach.  I'll PM you a link.

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The microwave animation showed in a recent post, showed that the process was occurring rather quickly, but why does IR imagery look like nothing is happening, but radar and microwave show something big happening?  There is a chance, Dorian will not weaken much with this cycle and could regain 185mph or intensify with a larger wind field in place.  He could actually deepen sub-900mb tomorrow afternoon, wind shear to the north is miscalculated on the CIMSS shear maps, most of that shear is caused by the monstrous anticyclonic flow aloft at 200mb, the outflow is pristine.

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Western eyewall reaching eastern end of Grand Bahama now. Only real populated area on that island is Freeport, IIRC, and any meaningful north component will keep them out of the eye wall, Of course if an ERC starts winds could get knocked down but by they could have longer duration event in larger eyewall. ERC will also broader wind field and result in more winds for Florida, even if the max winds are a bit weaker.

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14 minutes ago, Snowman99 said:

I think if this goes through an ERC it gets knocked down to a 4.  Perfect conditions are needed to sustain 5's. A little land and inner core workings should do a bit of a number on it.

That's definitely not happening. It isn't going to drop over 25mph from this EWRC. It's still very organized and in a low shear environment with very high SST's

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7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Updated 8pm cone finally available -

 

220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

A lot of new inlets and islands will be created from this storm. The shape of the smaller Abaco Islands will be altered big time. 

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

I know not to obsess over wobbles but I’m not the only one noticing that SW wobble right?

Looks like it’s actually turning around 

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18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Updated 8pm cone finally available -

 

 

The cone is updated four times a day at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. for each system in the tropics.

Only the initial plot of the storm changes on the intermediate updates.

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This thing is going to have to start the northerly turn in the next 12-18hrs so as to not put the eastern coast of Florida in the western eyewall.

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

The cone is updated four times a day at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. for each system in the tropics.

Only the initial plot of the storm changes on the intermediate updates.

They have been posting the cone graphics earlier (generally between 20 minutes before or around a normal update time).  They had provided a text update at both 7 pm and 8 pm.  Plus the storm position has changed between the 5 pm cone and the 8 pm cone, so the cones are not quite identical (i.e., the 8 pm is a "34A" version to align with the update text and storm position).

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5 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Has the UK ens solution of a retrograde to fort lauderdale been taken off of the table? 

Unlikely but no...Fort Lauderdale is under a TS watch and all interests in Florida need to keep a close watch until Dorian proceeds northward.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This thing is going to have to start the northerly turn in the next 12-18hrs so as to not put the eastern coast of Florida in the western eyewall.

I went back and looked at the 12Z GFS forecast positions at 06Z and 12Z.  Neither one has much of any shot at this point to not be too far north.  In order to reach the forecast position at 12Z tomorrow from today’s 12Z GFS it would have to move something like 320 degrees from where it is now 

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FYI:

At Dorian's current center latitude of 26.6° N, and at its' ~134 miles distance due west from West Palm Beach [from 2000h NHC Update], every storm heading/course change of 2° from its' present 270°/due west heading traverses a distance of ~5.4mi/4.68nm to the north or south at the Florida coastline 'destination' [ATT].

IOW, without a storm heading change, at 5mph forward speed, WPB has roughly 26.8 hours until landfall... other points N or S slightly more time. 

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7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

how many weenies does it take to will a southward turn???

Just one - and he has already done it with a different storm... LOL

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7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

how many weenies does it take to will a southward turn???

It did take a weeble wobble more south per sat if you really look at it,but yeah its still going west

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