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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Given the satellite appearance, I was expecting another drop in pressure, but apparently not.

Hopefully, he peaked for now and the Bahamas won't get wiped off the face of the earth.

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Still an absolute monster... perhaps Dorian has weakened a little bit, but don’t think one pass through the NW eyewall is enough to say for sure. Eric Blake mentioned something on twitter about radar out of the Bahamas showing what seemed like the definitive begins of an EWRC, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at recon data (due to absence of a double wind max).

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Dorian’s “way out” is now plainly evident on the 250-850mb Steering Product. Only problem? It’s still in the gulf region of LA/MS. Until it reaches the FL peninsula, we will see persistent westward movement. For how long is anybody’s guess. My untrained eye guesses it’s atleast 6-8 hours out. 

9507F053-A5D7-4E09-9DA4-069E6438B633.gif

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Not trying to be a weenie here but it does look like the eye loses a bit of latitude in the last hour or so on infrared. 

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3 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Dorian’s “way out” is now plainly evident on the 250-850mb Steering Product. Only problem? It’s still in the gulf region of LA/MS. Until it reaches the FL peninsula, we will see persistent westward movement. For how long is anybody’s guess. My untrained eye guesses it’s atleast 6-8 hours out. 

 

That’s where I fear the global models have it wrong; the steering layer you posted is for 940+mb but the storm is 914mb. Global models don’t forecast the central low correctly. If you look at the <940mb steering layer graphic from CIMSS the escape is even further west, over Texas.

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1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Not trying to be a weenie here but it does look like the eye loses a bit of latitude in the last hour or so on infrared. 

I'm not seeing that.  If anything the eye is looking like it wants to go directly over Freeport and Grand Bahama.   Its track could have gone just North of the Island or just South.  But nope, it seems insistent on causing the great people there terrible loss overnight.  

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18 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Land interaction likely knocked Dorian down a notch. I would expect interaction with Grand Bahama combined with slow movement to do the same.

This has been addressed several times today. The interaction with the Bahamas is likely extremely minimal. 

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3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Not trying to be a weenie here but it does look like the eye loses a bit of latitude in the last hour or so on infrared. 

Based on radar it appears a slight tick south (less than 2 degrees) of due west for the past few hours.

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8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

This has been addressed several times today. The interaction with the Bahamas is likely extremely minimal. 

Yes, but when you are talking about a strong Cat. 5 needing almost pristine conditions to maintain its intensity, even "extremely minimal" interactions can have an impact. We might be only talking 5mb or so, but it's something.

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11 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I'm not seeing that.  If anything the eye is looking like it wants to go directly over Freeport and Grand Bahama.   Its track could have gone just North of the Island or just South.  But nope, it seems insistent on causing the great people there terrible loss overnight.  

It actually is to a certain degree

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10 minutes ago, jasons said:

Yes, but when you are talking about a strong Cat. 5 needing almost pristine conditions to maintain its intensity, even "extremely minimal" interactions can have an impact. We might be only talking 5mb or so, but it's something.

But in terms of how destructive it can be...is 5mb that much of a difference? Lol

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8pm update up -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 012346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN POUNDING GREAT ABACO AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

WPC 8 pm update -

 

WPC-Dorian_rainfall-8pm-09012019.gif

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After days of strengthening with several periods of rapid intensification, I think Dorian finally hit the max. I expect from this point we will see it weaken gradually but with it being so high end cat 5 now, it's going to take a long time

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

After days of strengthening with several periods of rapid intensification, I think Dorian finally hit the max. I expect from this point we will see it weaken gradually but with it being so high end cat 5 now, it's going to take a long time

I would not count on much weakening in the next 48 hours.  I think we are just finally seeing a long over due EWR cycle and with the storm in its current structure it should happen fairly fast.  The sea temps are plenty warm enough to maintain strength.  Once it turns north I would expect it to start to wind down.

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Dorian had to be near maximum potential intensity for that area of the ocean. Most intense measured winds and lowest pressure for any storm of that latitude in the Atlantic. Also I believe Dorian is only the 5th tropical cyclone worldwide to made landfall at that wind speed or higher. Others being STY Haiyan (190 mph), and Labor Day 1935, STY Joan (1959) and Cyclone Winston at 185 mph.

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

After days of strengthening with several periods of rapid intensification, I think Dorian finally hit the max. I expect from this point we will see it weaken gradually but with it being so high end cat 5 now, it's going to take a long time

That’s the big take home, it’s going to take a long time to fill from such a low pressure. We will also see the wind field expand as this heads towards the Carolinas. 

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5 minutes ago, anemone said:

4PM ET Advisory: 26.6N

5PM ET Advisory: 26.6N

6PM ET Advisory: 26.6N

7PM ET Advisory: 26.6N

8PM ET Advisory: 26.6N

Same speed as well (5mph) since last advisory

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Should be noted for those paying close attention to the forward speed, that Dorian is not modeled to stall/slow down to a crawl until after Grand Bahama/Freeport.

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