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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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25 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z GFS running.  Track looks about the same as the 12z run.  It is 10mb deeper at hr 48 but 2mb greater than the 12z prog at hr 72.

I've seen so many hallucination posts over the last several days but this time the gfs is actually west of last run. 

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Is this the 2nd or 3rd GFS run in a row that shows a landfall in NC? Beginning to see a trend.

ICON/GFS/Euro all landfall in NC now....still its 4 days or so out still so not getting to worried and it probably would be Cat 2 at best.....

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Outflow presentation on both sat and radar continues to be magnificent.  I don’t recall any TC other than Dorian that has not fluctuated or at least looked a little sloppy for some interval so many hours after gaining major storm status 

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Just now, Hotair said:

Latest HMON has it pegged at 891 by hour 3 !

 

I guess it's wrong at hour 3 then...

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

ICON/GFS/Euro all landfall in NC now....still its 4 days or so out still so not getting to worried and it probably would be Cat 2 at best.....

Hard to tell with Tropical Tidbits maps but it looks like the legacy gfs, which has been a NC landfall holdout, gets much closer to a landfall too. Seems like there’s a little consensus that may be trying to build there. 

You think there’d be a lot of evacuations if this came to fruition? Looks like a pretty fast mover and weaker.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hard to tell with Tropical Tidbits maps but it looks like the legacy gfs, which has been a NC landfall holdout, gets much closer to a landfall too. Seems like there’s a little consensus that may be trying to build there. 

You think there’d be a lot of evacuations if this came to fruition? Looks like a pretty fast mover and weaker.

It’s 4 days away. Don’t think there’s going to be any consensus this far out.

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s 4 days away. Don’t think there’s going to be any consensus this far out.

You forgot the 'snark' tag...

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Not sure what to make of this, but friends in Jacksonville Fl, whose condo is near the beach, have been told to evacuate.

 

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

18Z GFS has landfall near SC/NC coast.

NE of there.

 

Ok let's just put this to rest:

 

 

 

6cd523f4-4f94-4669-ad83-edbd1029065a.gif

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hard to tell with Tropical Tidbits maps but it looks like the legacy gfs, which has been a NC landfall holdout, gets much closer to a landfall too. Seems like there’s a little consensus that may be trying to build there. 

You think there’d be a lot of evacuations if this came to fruition? Looks like a pretty fast mover and weaker.

If its a Cat 1 or 2 they will run the tourist out for sure the locals will all stay, very few leave even with mandatory evac orders....those that do are the folks living in trailers etc..those tracks put the OBX and IBX in legit hurricane conditions and I imagine by then the wind field will be huge given the pressure the storm is at now and it relaxing its gradient as it spreads out heading north.....I wouldnt be surprised to see the storm still around 100-110 mph as it passes thru.

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Center of Dorian currently looks to be 160 miles off the Florida Coast.  Fascinating to think this storm is projected to stall and spin for up to 3 days without making landfall on the coast 

00133109-6827-491A-8493-21823F85B327.png

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I wouldn't trust the GFS or any computer model with this monster 2-3 days out. Errors of 70 miles every 24 hours out can make a huge difference 2-3 Days out. So any secondary landfalls other than the Bahamas is speculative at best until any true model consensus is agreed upon.

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I've seen so many hallucination posts over the last several days but this time the gfs is actually west of last run. 

I have skin in the game in this one.  I have family in Ormond Beach FL (near Daytona) and Morehead City, NC.  I have lost count of the number of times that model runs have shown direct hits on these communities over the past few days.

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6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s 4 days away. Don’t think there’s going to be any consensus this far out.

Consensus doesn’t mean right. 

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If its a Cat 1 or 2 they will run the tourist out for sure the locals will all stay, very few leave even with mandatory evac orders....those that do are the folks living in trailers etc..those tracks put the OBX and IBX in legit hurricane conditions and I imagine by then the wind field will be huge given the pressure the storm is at now and it relaxing its gradient as it spreads out heading north.....I wouldnt be surprised to see the storm still around 100-110 mph as it passes thru.

Thanks. Obviously a long way to go and y’all really don’t need another storm after Matthew and Florence. Wind field expansion is a great point. A lot of the models are in lockstep forecasting quite an expansion of the wind field.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

I have skin in the game in this one.  I have family in Ormond Beach FL (near Daytona) and Morehead City, NC.  I have lost count of the number of times that model runs have shown direct hits on these communities over the past few days.

I thin your family will be OK. Certainly nothing like what happened to the Bahamas today will occur to them that's for sure..

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3 minutes ago, Greg said:

I thin your family will be OK. Certainly nothing like what happened to the Bahamas today will occur to them that's for sure..

Florida yes - NC is still to be determined.

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Will Grand Bahama Island influence the track of Dorian? i.e. will it try to avoid it to the north or south? I know its not like there are mountains there or anything.

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5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

If the hair on your arms and head starts to tingle and stand up while inside that flying Faraday Cage, you may be about to be ....[word not allowed...].

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NHC just issued a 7pm update (Dorian is down to 5 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 012254
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...APPROACHING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the eastern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama will
begin to experience the western eyewall soon.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

Also - don't think this was posted earlier but NHC Storm Surge group tweeted this earlier today (I expect they will update with any new data) -

 

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1 minute ago, jesssean said:

 

How can you say Florida is in the clear with absolute certain you can’t

I was referring to a specific community there and no there is no absolute certainty with Dorian.

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