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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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4 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So you need to carefully look at the time scales of the official forecast and models.  It basically grinds to a halt and doesn't start turning for TWO days. 

Some of the models were showing a WNW motion starting by now that hasn't happened yet.

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I love how people are already making definitive statements when the Hurricane has literally been wobbling all over the place and the margin of error is zero.

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Stop and think for a moment that we have a 160 kt / 185 mph tropical cyclone over land. That in itself is incredible on a global historical note.

 

 

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

Some of the models were showing a WNW motion starting by now that hasn't happened yet.

People are extraordinarily mistaken if they think Dorian has blown straight through some Formula one Hairpin Turn that "the models" said it was supposed to do an hour ago. 

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More information from my brother (Mods please move or delete if this is the wrong thread).

Damn. Omg. We just got a sat phone report that houses are destroyed everywhere in the island.


.

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4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Honestly I didn’t think a weather station could remain reporting with those kinds of winds. 

The very best pro/met grade can, if properly sited and installed.

The more common consumer/prosumer ones not so much [one anemometer is supposed to be good for 200mph, most to 100-150mph] .

Top ones:  Vaisala, Young, Campbell Sci, etc.

 

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3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

HMON sliding a bit south and west again 

NN5LtjH.gif

 

Hurricanes have a way of humbling even the most experienced mets. This storm is far from figured out.

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3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

People are extraordinarily mistaken if they think Dorian has blown straight through some Formula one Hairpin Turn that "the models" said it was supposed to do an hour ago. 

I definitely don't think that. Looking at little changes like that are important I think. I was just saying that Dorian needs to start turning WNW sooner rather than later.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I love how people are already making definitive statements when the Hurricane has literally been wobbling all over the place and the margin of error is zero.

Sure...but the idea that both the gfs and euro would be this far off at this range would be extremely rare. 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I love how people are already making definitive statements when the Hurricane has literally been wobbling all over the place and the margin of error is zero.

Wobbling? This sucker has been on a rulers-edge course, relatively speaking compared to many others. There was one in the FL Panhandle that danced a jig for days.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wouldn't. The average track error at this range is 70 miles. They would need be a hair more "off" than average.

This is a really good point.  Wouldn't take an abnormally large model error to put an eyewall on the coast.

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15 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Anybody know how to save this image? Twitter won't let me save it...

 

twitter.gif

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Stop and think for a moment that we have a 160 kt / 185 mph tropical cyclone over land. That in itself is incredible on a global historical note.

 

 

And only 2 years after Irma.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168179768744800258

The strongest #hurricane landfalls in the Atlantic basin not in the continental US since 1985 are 180 mph landfalls by Hurricane Irma in 2017 on Barbuda, St. Martin and the British Virgin Islands. Unfortunately, it looks like #HurricaneDorian may join that infamous list shortly.

 

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HiRes Meso have a track toward the SW, stall commencing in a few hours then meandering just offshore a bit. Lumbering N'ward from there.
I know, I know different logarithms and physics.

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Seems unlikely to make a full landfall in Florida, however a partial eye wall landfall is not out of question... Especially further up the coastline near the space coast. Something I'm interested in down the line is how this SW trend in the short term plus the trend in weakening the 2nd trough mid-week will impact a potential NC landfall. We forget that portion of the forecast is a few days out and there is quite a bit more margin for error. My guess is this could result in a more NNE to NE recurve as opposed to total U-Turn ENE out to see. We shall see.

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Where in hell is Kermit going?  They're up in the panhandle.  Maybe start staging in Pensacola or Biloxi just in case?

Edit:  Will someone PLEASE pull the plug on that GFDL crack model replacement.  If i see one more HMON post gonna do more than throw my hands in the air :gun_bandana:

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NHC issued an 'update statement' at 1245EDT, kind of extreme, and likely still strengthening:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011644.shtml

WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents there should take
immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

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