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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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25 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Encouraging signs from the 12z gfs.  One run I know but at least maybe an indication the west trends have peaked.

For Fla yes. For the Carolinas and SEVA, not so much.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

907.8 extrapolated pressure, so it seems that things have slowed a bit. Still getting an SFMR of 177kts and a FL wind of 161kts. 

That’s still down a bit compared to the last pass... going to have to wait for the dropsonde though. 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

That’s still down a bit compared to the last pass... going to have to wait for the dropsonde though. 

Yeah, I'm just talking about the rate of the pressure drop and general trend. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I'm just talking about the rate of the pressure drop and general trend. 

Given the high background pressure, that's an incredible reading all the same. I wonder what it would be if one were to correct for a more normal environment. <900mb would be my guess.

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17 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Just got these texts from my brother who lived in Hope Town for several years and still has friends in HT & MH

Just git a report from our closest friend. Their concrete roof has blown completely off and try are hiding in the stone generator room in the back yard now.

Friends in Marsh Harbour now in attic as surge is filling their house.


.

Praying for your friends and everyone in the Bahamas.. What's happening is almost unbelievable.

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177 kt unflagged SFMR.

16:27:00Z 26.650N 76.983W 699.4 mb
(~ 20.66 inHg)
2,606 meters
(~ 8,550 feet)
947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)
- From 71° at 147 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 169.2 mph)
9.4°C
(~ 48.9°F)
6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F)
155 knots
(~ 178.4 mph)
177 knots
(~ 203.7 mph)
32 mm/hr
(~ 1.26 in/hr)
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Put it this way, from a pressure altitude perspective you could fit the Burj Khalifa in Dorians "pressure well" from the eyewall to the center.  That's 2700 feet.

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SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

177 kt unflagged SFMR.

16:27:00Z 26.650N 76.983W 699.4 mb
(~ 20.66 inHg)
2,606 meters
(~ 8,550 feet)
947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)
- From 71° at 147 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 169.2 mph)
9.4°C
(~ 48.9°F)
6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F)
155 knots
(~ 178.4 mph)
177 knots
(~ 203.7 mph)
32 mm/hr
(~ 1.26 in/hr)

Yes, that's like the 4th or 5th unflagged 200mph SFMR I've seen.  May be inaccurate but if a dropsonde can get lucky and verify...

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Just now, JakkelWx said:
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

So it sped up (relatively speaking) from 7 mph back to 8 mph.

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

Sped up again to 8 and has barely a slightly N component to the storm.  Will need to monitor the movement degrees over the afternoon to see if the western envelope of solutions are still on the table (for FL).

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2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

Landfall official: Elbow Kay

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

Yes, that's like the 4th or 5th unflagged 200mph SFMR I've seen.  May be inaccurate but if a dropsonde can get lucky and verify...



There was already a surface drop that was 203 mph this morning. I think the FL winds and lowest 150m average (on the dropsondes) is what they're leaning on instead of SFMR and surface drop.

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1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

According to the models shouldn't Dorian start turning at least a little by now or in a few hours? It's still heading due west.

So you need to carefully look at the time scales of the official forecast and models.  It basically grinds to a halt and doesn't start turning for TWO days. 

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Here's the full statement

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents there should take
immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

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All along the high to the northeast has been under gauged. Just a modest 30.10 baro pressing  down is enough to keep this moving west.  29.90 a different matter and better pray this dramatic leap to the north actually does occur.

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the Few major models that completed recently all indicate Dorian starting a turn WNW starting around noon or earlier. That has not materialized according to radar. Which means next runs will likely see a further nudge to the West if not WSW

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...and the latest VDM

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 16:48Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 30 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 16:23:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.50N 76.93W
B. Center Fix Location: 104 statute miles (167 km) to the NNE (15°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,324m (7,625ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 18kts (From the W at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 171kts (196.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (131°) of center fix at 16:21:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 229° at 154kts (From the SW at 177.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (131°) of center fix at 16:21:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 177kts (203.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (341°) of center fix at 16:27:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 73° at 161kts (From the ENE at 185.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix at 16:27:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) from the flight level center at 16:27:30Z
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Landfall official: Elbow Kay

Yep. Even saw a little still grey spot through the eye on satellite. Must have been the island.

 

3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yes, that's like the 4th or 5th unflagged 200mph SFMR I've seen.  May be inaccurate but if a dropsonde can get lucky and verify...

Not surprised they only went with 185 mph instead of 190/200 based on what they're leaning on.

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