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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

How about complete and total obliteration. 

Yep. Like the Jarrett, TX tornado. Buildings, foundations, roads [the very pavement], just peeled away and disintegrated.

EF5 >200 >322 Incredible damage.

Strong-framed, well-built houses leveled off foundations and swept away; steel-reinforced concrete structures are critically damaged; tall buildings collapse or have severe structural deformations; cars, trucks, and trains can be thrown approximately 1 mile (1.6 km).

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I mean I can't recall ever seeing anything like it. Maybe Wilma?

Dorian has the fuel pettle down to the floor-board on some serious high octane oceanic heat content. The islands present some intriguing how is that going to interfere with the core curiosity, but if it doesn't stall until leaving them behind, it may hold its intensity at least. Will it continue intensifying though? Emperical observations and fascinations aside compared to the terrifying human impacts about to be experienced. Perspectives...

 

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16 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

ICON is east of 6z run not that anyone really cares but is riding up the coast about 25-50 miles offshore through hr 69

Its only the people have trouble opening to change that do not care.  The Icon and UK have been leading the way on this one.   This is a terrible run for SC to the DelMarVa.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Its only the people have trouble opening to change that do not care.  The Icon and UK have been leading the way on this one.   This is a terrible run for SC to the DelMarVa.  

Dude, its been making landfall in FLL to the Keys for days. It's off the florida coast now, with the other models. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's good, but if I lived on the FL shore, I'd be more concerned with watching what the storm is actually doing, at this point.

Sure, but im just point out its no longer making landfall in south Florida like it had been for days. For people that were hot on landfall, the ICON was one of the justifications. 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Dude, its been making landfall in FLL to the Keys for days. It's off the florida coast now, with the other models. 

The other models that have been touted as the leaders are WAY off the Florida coast.  The Icon has been consistent in a Florida landfall or close to one as it still stands at.  May be wrong but the Euro and GFS have fluctuated hundreds of miles in the last few days.  Some forecasters prefer consistency.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

The other models that have been touted as the leaders are WAY off the Florida coast.  The Icon has been consistent in a Florida landfall or close to one as it still stands at.  May be wrong but the Euro and GFS have fluctuated hundreds of miles in the last few days.  Some forecasters prefer consistency.  

lolz. Talk to the NHC and see why they don't even bother running verification scores on it. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Sure, but im just point out its no longer making landfall in south Florida like it had been for days. For people that were hot on landfall, the ICON was one of the justifications. 

Yea....I've always been more focused on the UK ens. I still think this at least kisses the coast...we'll see. That was good news.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's good, but if I lived on the FL shore, I'd be more concerned with watching what the storm is actually doing, at this point.

What's the best place to do that, please.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea....I've always been more focused on the UK ens. I still think this at least kisses the coast...we'll see. That was good news.

I don't really know enough about the UKMET ensembles to say they're good or bad either way. 

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Dorian's outer rainbands will be raking SE Florida in a few hours, as he proceeds west and presumably continues to expand and intensify.

[edit]: Model buzz aside, for those in SE Florida, your 'exit cutoff point' is rapidly approaching.

With Harvey in 2017 I had planned to stay with the boat as long as possible. Finally left and began the drive inland ~14 hours before first landfall. The rainbands, wind buffeting, and visibility were extreme. And I practically had the roads to myself, as it was ~0500h, the more prudent had already exited, and everybody else was hunkered down.

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The pattern of Dorian's convective cold cloud tops as they cool and fan outward in the CDO from the eyewall it is making a hurricane symbol pattern, with potential for the beginning of the process of dual outflow channels/jets in the poleward and equatorward directions.  Also, Dorian is clearing out his circular eye of 15 miles in width, no signs of EWRCs occurring or starting, radar imagery is maybe the finest I have ever seen this close to landfall.  GOM and Caribbean Hurricanes have lower environmental pressures which lead to lower pressures in the center, ie: Wilma 2005, 882mb, Rita 897mb, but Irma was 915mb at her peak 180mph winds, it seems like category five monsters in this region are stronger with winds.

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It looks like GOES-16 Meso 1 over Dorian was taken out of 30 second mode? At least via the imagery I'm looking at through GREarth. Seems an odd decision to go back to 1 min imagery during this period of intensification.

I had a few moments there where I thought Dorian had suddenly sped up. :)

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