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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

Josh..

 

1m

 

11:15 am. 978 mb & falling fast. Just outside eyewall, but winds will damaging. Holed up with six others in concrete room with chairs against the door. #DORIAN

With possible storm surge up to 23 feet, he can be a building that holds together but under water.

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6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Elbow cay getting the worst now, population 500, hope they evacuated.

I have stepfamily who live in Man-O-War Clay just north of there who didn’t evacuate... :o It looks like they’re about to get destroyed by the eyewall now.

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1 minute ago, winterymix said:

With possible storm surge up to 23 feet, he can be a building that holds together but under water.

He said it's up on a bit of a hill and it's a designated storm shelter.

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3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

With possible storm surge up to 23 feet, he can be a building that holds together but under water.

He had indicated he would be sheltering in a school on a hill.  Not sure how much elevation it has but I doubt 25’ asl 

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Grain of salt post but SFMR winds of 200.  And check out the eye temp differential

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 15:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 23

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 14:56:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.50N 76.75W
B. Center Fix Location: 107 statute miles (173 km) to the NNE (21°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,348m (7,703ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 915mb (27.02 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 21kts (From the SW at 24mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 176kts (202.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (38°) of center fix at 14:54:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 156kts (From the SE at 179.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (38°) of center fix at 14:54:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 172kts (197.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 15:02:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 288° at 150kts (From the WNW at 172.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix at 15:03:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 159kts (~ 183.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW (327°) from the flight level center at 13:16:00Z
 

General Note About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

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Curious if frictional interference with the islands will slow this rapid intensification. Esp if it passed long ways across Grand Bahama. Center could be over land but it's eyewall will still be over the insanely warm waters

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if frictional interference with the islands will slow this rapid intensification. Esp if it passed long ways across Grand Bahama. Center could be over land but it's eyewall will still be over the insanely warm waters

The shallow water will probably be more of a hindrance than the actual land. But yeah I'd expect it's peaking now. It's why I scrapped everything I had planned this morning and have been just watching dumbfounded like everyone else I'm sure.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if frictional interference with the islands will slow this rapid intensification. Esp if it passed long ways across Grand Bahama. Center could be over land but it's eyewall will still be over the insanely warm waters

As low terrain those islands are? Most will be buried under the waves from beng so flat

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if frictional interference with the islands will slow this rapid intensification. Esp if it passed long ways across Grand Bahama. Center could be over land but it's eyewall will still be over the insanely warm waters

The islands are not big enough or cover enough area for them to interfere with Dorian's intensification.  He will likely continue to intensify as the pressure continues to drop and the lightning continues inside the eyewall.  Dorian has a large circulation, he is taking air from 500 miles away and feeding himself with it.

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He had indicated he would be sheltering in a school on a hill.  Not sure how much elevation it has but I doubt 25’ asl 

There are hills well in excess of 25’ AML in that area and throughout the Bahamas actually 

7A0DEA16-D956-4FBE-AA84-FF0910FCE4D8.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

ICON caves...off the southern Florida coast. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh54_trend.gif

Thank God. Hopefully this foretells the end of westward model trend

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The islands are not big enough or cover enough area for them to interfere with Dorian's intensification.  He will likely continue to intensify as the pressure continues to drop and the lightning continues inside the eyewall.  Dorian has a large circulation, he is taking air from 500 miles away and feeding himself with it.

Then comes the deep,high OHC/OHI, yet warmer SST Gulf Stream... NHC went to the word "catastrophic" recently, not sure what word comes after that, may have to coin one. Like "Dorianic"?

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2 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Then comes the deep,high OHC/OHI, yet warmer SST Gulf Stream... NHC went to the word "catastrophic" recently, not sure what word comes after that, may have to coin one. Like "Dorianic"?

How about complete and total obliteration. 

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