• Member Statistics

    15,930
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    David
    Newest Member
    David
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s a tough call. When you have a deep system like this, any weakness aloft will cause a drift. You also have beta drift which naturally wants to tug north this side of equator. 

Scott, this is the most spectacular hurricane I have seen this side of the Atlantic Ocean, the exception of course Western Caribbean Sea and GOM.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dorian just went from being a small intense hurricane to a very large, very intense tornado.

"Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents
there should take immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott, this is the most spectacular hurricane I have seen this side of the Atlantic Ocean, the exception of course Western Caribbean Sea and GOM.

Agree 

i do hope people well inland of the Florida Coast are paying attention and are prepared for some infrastructure damage to occur from the wind field and possible tornadoes and flooding.  I get it that Labor Day weekend is a critical time for the House of the Mouse and the many beachfront properties in Florida, but later Monday afternoon may just be too late to tell millions of people they may be better off fleeing low lying areas.  

 

WPB officials should be putting out Hurricane Watches asap.

 

The latest NAM is running now and also confirming a more Western shift at 21 hours from its prior run

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Gusts over 200!!! I have some serious concerns for Josh & any other chasers in Marsh Harbour / Hope Town area!!!

 

 

.

 

It looks like Josh is going to be right in the center of the eye if Dorian maintains its current heading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

I really do not like how close this is going to come before the turn. I think Freeport is only 80-90 miles from the Florida coast, that isn’t a whole lot of distance for a hurricane to miss. Heck we see snowstorms in this time frame go 100-150 miles away from its modeled target

Dorian getting on my nerves bad...  that right/east and northward turn better pan out before it gets too close to the coast.  As the crow flies I'm about one mile from the St. Lucie Inlet and Grand Bahama is less then 100 miles almost due east of my front door.  This is a nail bitter - looking for something, anything to set me at ease a little about the anticipated turn.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hotair said:

06z Icon is running now and shows slightly west again from 00z Icon. Keep in mind Icon has been pretty consistent throughout this storm.  

Ft. Lauderdale in eyewall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is a little bit of a baseball stat ;-)

Perhaps, but it's objective and accurate. We've never seen a hurricane this intense this far north in the Atlantic Basin outside of the GOM in modern historical times. And Dorian may not be done. If it continues to drop pressure another 10-15mb under the influence of the ridge and above mean background pressures, the windspeeds are going to continue going up. Edit: If the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was not considered a Gulf hurricane at the time of its peak intensity, then I stand corrected. That's borderline. And yes, can't forget ol' Andrew. Neither storm were at Dorian's latitude however. Phil is a walking, living, breathing TC encyclopedia.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
6 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:
This is a little bit of a baseball stat ;-)

Perhaps but it's objective and accurate. We've never seen a hurricane this intense this far north in the Atlantic Basin outside of the GOM in modern historical times. And Dorian may not be done. If it continues to drop pressure another 10-15mb under the influence of the ridge and above mean background pressures, the windspeeds are going to continue going up.

Sorry, just teasing (Phil mainly).  You're right.  The last very intense hurricane in this area was Andrew, and we're several mb below Andrew's 922 mb, and poised to surpass andrew's 175 mph max.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the latest vortex message

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 14:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 13:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.47N 76.59W
B. Center Fix Location: 109 statute miles (176 km) to the NNE (26°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,392m (7,848ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 15° at 16kts (From the NNE at 18mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 155kts (178.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW (325°) of center fix at 13:15:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 44° at 159kts (From the NE at 183.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 13:16:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 170kts (195.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:20:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 241° at 151kts (From the WSW at 173.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SE (142°) of center fix at 13:21:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 159kts (~ 183.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW (327°) from the flight level center at 13:16:00Z
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sister-in-law lives in Fort Pierce and decided today they’re not leaving regardless. 

The recent trend is .... concerning me greatly.

So is my cousin ... she’s freaking out ... 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. 918.3 mb extrapolated, with 151kt FL and 170kt SFMR. Seems like a big difference between the two though. 

 

Kudos to yesterday’s HMON runs that showed more intensifying overnight and this morning. Not sure if it’ll get sub 910mb it had winds up to 155kts. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

So is my cousin ... she’s freaking out ... 

I mean I'd be nervous too. I'd definitely be prepared for some cat 1 conditions. Although the storm plowing into Florida proper would be incredibly unlikely, the wind radii expanding significantly is something that happens frequently with storms like this as they move NW and N.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.