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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 minutes ago, gump said:

I was just about to post that (longwave IR version).  With Levi's site bogged down, COD is a great alternative.  It is very speedy.

Here's the IR version

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Gulf_Stream-14-24-1-50-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

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This is the IR cloudtop colorization I always like to use for a modern historical observation in comparison to past Atlantic intense hurricanes. The color code is that of the original IR NHC AVN set just to get a visual sense of what we have seen in the past 40 years of implementation and is what my brain is attuned to. Based on upper tropospheric temps and Dorian's lattitudinal position, you will rarely ever see a presentation like this in the N ATL basin:e99c771303fa532c9906a4b0c0367331.gif

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 12z tropical guidance ticked west a tad.

I always felt that this was on the table.  Even when the models shifted everything east I had a hard time buying into it despite the synoptic reasoning behind it.  This storm is a beast with a lot of inertial momentum despite its slow progression west I find it hard that the trough traversing the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and weakening HP to the north will carry it north without grazing the FL coast at the very least. Plus the retrograding Bermuda High beginning on Tuesday could nudge it even further west.  I really feel the UKMO Ens illustrates a realistic solution.  Even this ICON model which I have never analyzed before I think has a realistic track.  I haven't looked at what else it is selling but those Germans are smart people lol.

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47 minutes ago, RDM said:

It is an dynamic mixture of influences...  preservation of angular momentum through slow forward motion (just like a top - the faster it spins the more it resists lateral motion), the influence of increasing SST's over the Gulf Stream, and how does that counter the upwelling with the slow forward motion, and the thickness of the high SST's in the Gulf Stream.  Compared to other areas outside the GS where SSTs are relatively shallow, the GS has a deep thermal profile that may also offset the normal influence of upwelling.  Believe this is what accounted for the incredible explosion of Andrew before landfall, albeit Andrew had a much faster forward motion where the impact of upwelling was not an issue.  

In the end, how slow can Dorian go and preserve the incredible singular eye wall without the influence of upwelling shutting off the energy spigot?  Is there an optimal speed to preserve the angular momentum that capitalizes on the SSTs and minimizes the effect of upwelling?

Yes many other important variables to consider. For the time being, though, i think it’s critical to note that a more direct westward trajectory means a closer pass to Florida. If there are no/very minimal wobbles, The longitudinal gain is maximized prior to the complete loss of steering currents and stall. 

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Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents
there should take immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila
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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. 918.3 mb extrapolated, with 151kt FL and 170kt SFMR. Seems like a big difference between the two though. 

 

A sign of the times: An "inverted yield curve"...

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Not surprised at the current intensity and rapid pressure fall. That satellite presentation cannot lie. And the deepening probably isn't over without an outer wind maxima and banding to begin negatively influencing the core.

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So basically 17k people are getting ready to endure a tsunami higher than their land mass and 175mph+ winds for a few hours.  Not your run of the mill Sunday.  Prayers, well wishes, thoughts, whatever you choose, for them all.  

Was there even an evacuation effort?  I didnt hear of one.

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

So basically 17k people are getting ready to endure a tsunami higher than their land mass and 175mph+ winds for a few hours.  Not your run of the mill Sunday.  Prayers, well wishes, thoughts, whatever you choose, for them all.  

Was there even an evacuation effort?  I didnt hear of one.

Josh is there and I expect people who could (or needed to) evacuated and/or moved further inland.

Tweet just out from NHC -

 

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1 minute ago, wkd said:

Director of NHC talking to TWC said they just recorded 175 mph winds.

Did you see his reaction when he was handed the new advisory? That was terrifying. I'm praying like heck for the people in the Bahamas. 

This SFMR data is extraordinary. 

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4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Patricia's record is being threatened. Going to plaid mode...Oh no's

not even close to being compared to patricia and it won't be..

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His appearance is getting better, the cold cloud tops getting colder, which means they are growing vertically, and then rapidly expanding westward or outward throughout the CDO.  Remember the earlier dropsondes dropped in the NE eyewall?  190-knot winds recorded.

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they were just talking to the guy from NHC on the WEather Channel. He mentioned the upgrading to 175 and that the storm was still getting stronger. Also mentioned that the latest model runs they are starting to see are tacking just a 'tad' left. He didn't specify making it onshore, but could be slightly closer to shore.

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14 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I always felt that this was on the table.  Even when the models shifted everything east I had a hard time buying into it despite the synoptic reasoning behind it.  This storm is a beast with a lot of inertial momentum despite its slow progression west I find it hard that the trough traversing the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and weakening HP to the north will carry it north without grazing the FL coast at the very least. Plus the retrograding Bermuda High beginning on Tuesday could nudge it even further west.  I really feel the UKMO Ens illustrates a realistic solution.  Even this ICON model which I have never analyzed before I think has a realistic track.  I haven't looked at what else it is selling but those Germans are smart people lol.

It’s a tough call. When you have a deep system like this, any weakness aloft will cause a drift. You also have beta drift which naturally wants to tug north this side of equator. 

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not even close to being compared to patricia and it won't be..
It can't be. Different circumstances. Different structure. But this storm is imbedded in higher mean background pressures. The wind speeds are going to top out way up there in the 160-170 kts range if it gets down to 900'ish mb.

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