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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

No secondary eyewall means all that wind energy is near the core and maximizing in that area. Wow.

The chasers in Marsh Harbour are going to get the experience of their lives... and some incredible footage.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No secondary eyewall means all that wind energy is near the core and maximizing in that area. Wow.

Similar to Haiyan, which also has a mega eye wall. There’s going to be a tsunami like storm surge

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The chasers in Marsh Harbour are going to get the experience of their lives... and some incredible footage.

Worried for them to be honest. I know buildings in the Bahamas are generally very sturdy but that's a long time to be in that kind of wind. Don't want a repeat of last year where two folks almost died on stream

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The chasers in Marsh Harbour are going to get the experience of their lives... and some incredible footage.

Some people in St Thomas were stuck for a month or more after Irma. The runway of the airport morgerman flew into yesterday will be peeled away today. 

Wonder how long it’ll be before the footage becomes available?! 

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Dorian probably isn't done strengthening. SSTs will increase with every degree of longitude through the Bahamas. The islands will have some slight influence with frictional convergence but probably minimal if even negligible on intensity. But since the core is so tight, the outer circulation is doing very little preceding upwelling. Also the upper pattern actually looks somewhat improved with the influence from the SW-NE oriented 350-200 mb upper ridge axis to Dorian's NW. Dorian's own upper forcing is deflecting that NNE flow. Still unknown if it might influence any late S of W motion. Regardless, a landfalling Cat 5 today in the Atlantic. We've had a few of those recently and can add one more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't believe that it is at 30/80 YET correct me if I am wrong I saw the last guidance had it around 27 /77 can some one verify ? Also can anyone tell me if Dorian is still traveling at 8 mph or has that changed ?

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Really would like to understand more about how this incredible inertial stability will affect the track. Have to think, all other things being equal, it will take a more substantial weakness in the flow, to alter Dorian’s trajectory. Greater angular velocity—>greater angular momentum—> less wobbles/future trajectory—> persistence

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4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't believe that it is at 30/80 YET correct me if I am wrong I saw the last guidance had it around 27 /77 can some one verify ? Also can anyone tell me if Dorian is still traveling at 8 mph or has that changed ?

The 8 am NHC update has it at 26.5N 76.5W and still had it moving at 8 mph.

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06z Icon is running now and shows slightly west again from 00z Icon. Keep in mind Icon has been pretty consistent throughout this storm.  

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Really would like to understand more about how this incredible inertial stability will affect the track. Have to think, all other things being equal, it will take a more substantial weakness in the flow, to alter Dorian’s trajectory. Greater angular velocity—>greater angular momentum—> less wobbles/future trajectory—> persistence

It is an dynamic mixture of influences...  preservation of angular momentum through slow forward motion (just like a top - the faster it spins the more it resists lateral motion), the influence of increasing SST's over the Gulf Stream, and how does that counter the upwelling with the slow forward motion, and the thickness of the high SST's in the Gulf Stream.  Compared to other areas outside the GS where SSTs are relatively shallow, the GS has a deep thermal profile that may also offset the normal influence of upwelling.  Believe this is what accounted for the incredible explosion of Andrew before landfall, albeit Andrew had a much faster forward motion where the impact of upwelling was not an issue.  

In the end, how slow can Dorian go and preserve the incredible singular eye wall without the influence of upwelling shutting off the energy spigot?  Is there an optimal speed to preserve the angular momentum that capitalizes on the SSTs and minimizes the effect of upwelling?

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Despite any track variances, the NHC "HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32", vs. previous report #31, has significantly increased the risk probabilities and extent for hurricane force winds in Florida. And not only FL, it is now showing some additional risks all the way to VA, MD, NJ, PA [and points south].

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/010852.shtml

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6D52A3D1-679B-4AFD-A9C5-7F61F1422B08.png.d955fa1f3eeb744bb05159d09beaa0a9.png&key=17e867cc8f8692dae628f4c773a6f6f89337d606b235902a774c0c3ae708592c

Excuse the hyperbole here but that modeled track is so surreal. It's like the biggest troll job. I hope it comes to pass and Dorian inevitably gets the boot. But still an incredible close shave. No room for error unless the error is to the east.

 

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Latest microwave passes show that Dorian's eyewall has expanded during the last few frames, although the core seems to have gotten smaller:

gifsBy12hr_09.gif

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Latest microwave passes show that Dorian's eyewall has expanded during the last few frames, although the core seems to have gotten smaller:

gifsBy12hr_09.gif

Interesting, considering there is zero indication of an EWRC

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13 minutes ago, RDM said:

It is an dynamic mixture of influences...  preservation of angular momentum through slow forward motion (just like a top - the faster it spins the more it resists lateral motion), the influence of increasing SST's over the Gulf Stream, and how does that counter the upwelling with the slow forward motion, and the thickness of the high SST's in the Gulf Stream.  Compared to other areas outside the GS where SSTs are relatively shallow, the GS has a deep thermal profile that may also offset the normal influence of upwelling.  Believe this is what accounted for the incredible explosion of Andrew before landfall, albeit Andrew had a much faster forward motion where the impact of upwelling was not an issue.  

In the end, how slow can Dorian go and preserve the incredible singular eye wall without the influence of upwelling shutting off the energy spigot?  Is there an optimal speed to preserve the angular momentum that capitalizes on the SSTs and minimizes the effect of upwelling?

Some ruminations from Levi here about whether upwelling due to the slower motion might have any impact -

Also what might be Josh's last tweet from Abaco...

 

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Looks like our first 4 consecutive years with a category 5 Atlantic hurricane.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-category-five-history-0

Full List of Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes

  • 2018: Michael
  • 2017: Irma, Maria
  • 2016: Matthew
  • 2007: Dean, Felix
  • 2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
  • 2004: Ivan
  • 2003: Isabel
  • 1998: Mitch
  • 1992: Andrew
  • 1989: Hugo
  • 1988: Gilbert
  • 1980: Allen
  • 1979: David
  • 1977: Anita
  • 1971: Edith
  • 1969: Camille
  • 1967: Beulah
  • 1961: Carla, Hattie
  • 1955: Janet
  • 1953: Carol
  • 1938: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1935: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1933: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
  • 1932: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
  • 1928: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1924: Unnamed Hurricane

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like our first 4 consecutive years with a category 5 Atlantic hurricane.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-category-five-history-0

Full List of Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes

  • 2018: Michael
  • 2017: Irma, Maria
  • 2016: Matthew
  • 2007: Dean, Felix
  • 2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
  • 2004: Ivan
  • 2003: Isabel
  • 1998: Mitch
  • 1992: Andrew
  • 1989: Hugo
  • 1988: Gilbert
  • 1980: Allen
  • 1979: David
  • 1977: Anita
  • 1971: Edith
  • 1969: Camille
  • 1967: Beulah
  • 1961: Carla, Hattie
  • 1955: Janet
  • 1953: Carol
  • 1938: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1935: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1933: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
  • 1932: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
  • 1928: Unnamed Hurricane
  • 1924: Unnamed Hurricane

 

 

That's just insane...crazy thing is that the rest of this past season was so quiet compared to now.

I wish I could be down there filming.

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