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Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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How does NHC justify not upgrading this to a category 5? Dropsonde is definitive at 178mph even if SFMR is suspect. And 6 recon passes over 8+ hours where SFMR consistently had unflagged category 5 velocities and they didn't upgrade it. I just don't understand *throws hands up*

 

I've been watching hurricanes for two decades and never seen a system with these properties not get upgraded.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Trying not to cause a panic by upgrading to a 5...

Exactly what I’m thinking . They are playing with fire . I rather say it now and get people on the coast over to the west side ASAP 

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There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.
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Per 11pm NHC discussion, "

There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.

"

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1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

Dr Knabb speculated that the FL readings (to weak)didn’t match the surface readings. Therefore the hold at 150.


.

There were FL readings over 142 knots...

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Just now, NavarreDon said:

Dr Knabb speculated that the FL readings (to weak)didn’t match the surface readings. Therefore the hold at 150.


.

But how does he explain the 155kt surface winds in the dropsonde?

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Just now, Jaguars said:

It’s amazing watching this thing churn due west on an absolute line.  Like zero wobble

I was just looking at that as well.  If we wake tomorrow and Dorian is still tracking due west, the entire right side of the forecast track is a moot point.  He's going to LF in FL if only by a few miles.  Light steering currents arent going to turn a Cat 5 on a dime.  

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Why bother with SFMR ratings if they're apparently so unreliable? <_<

 

And as far as the panic avoidance rationale, doesn't the NOAA pride itself on being a scientific rather than a political organization? Reality doesn't care about what we think, it just is.

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Just now, TriPol said:

I call politics. This HAS to be politically motivated. NOAA is under the Dept. of Commerce. 

Get a grip

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I think we should avoid theorizing and trust that the NHC is conducting their work in an ethical and professional manner.  They and the entire National Weather Service have, IMO, a well-earned right to our trust.  That's where I will stand on it.

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Can anyone answer this = assuming that Dorian continues traveling west at its current speed what longitude and latitude would it have to be at where it would be safe to say that this WOULD BE making landfall in Florida ?

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