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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Not only will this make four years in the row for Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, this is back-to-back years with a Category 5 north of 25° latitude, outside of the deep tropics, which is perhaps even more remarkable.

First time on record?

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Not only will this make four years in the row for Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, this is back-to-back years with a Category 5 north of 25° latitude, outside of the deep tropics, which is perhaps even more remarkable.

You know, I've been thinking a lot about this lately. The last few years we've certainly seen a western Atlantic more favorable for tropical genesis and intense hurricanes, which has overcome a So-So MDR. That's part of the reason my outlook had an active peak. Factor in the lack of shear in large parts of the basin this season in response to the warm neutral state we're in, and things become a bit of a powder keg. Not really for this thread, but there's a lot of the season left to go. Can't believe we're still in August. We've only had named storms in the last 7-10 days and it feels like weeks.   

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21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Isn't it about time we do away with knots and go with mph?
Granted when we were floating around in boats and ships, knots were the way we spoke. But now, everyone has a car and mph is the way we speak. Watch the weather on TV and wind is mph, watch a hurricane and it is knots. Come on, get with the times. Storms do not need to be an ancient esoteric dialog where the general public has to decode what the heck is going on.

:)

I know what you mean, but as a rated navigator my cranial sliderule/FC just converts it. For the public, well, it is what it is. One should pay attention, you know how assumptions work out

NOAA is consistently inconsistent though, in sometimes showing the equivalents in some bulletins, then only one or another in others. it is confusing. It's been a long-time aggro to me that NOAA in all comms involving measurements should present all the common ones in each mention [mph-kts-m/s-whatever].

It would be trivial for their composing/editing software to just macro any measurement value encountered. EG: somebody/something typing along writes 150mph, the macro bundles all the measurement system equivalents [in a standard format, the most common ones]. Not just mph/kts/etc either, any other parameters like baro, etc.

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First time on record?

Would have to check but, off hand, I don't think we have seen this before in the modern satellite era. Interestingly, Irma nearly reached 23.4°N (Tropic of Cancer) as a Cat 5 as well, making landfall in Cuba at 22.1°N.

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Let's please stick to the storm right in front of us and put the historical musings and discussions on NHC methods in the regular tropical season thread. 

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With the environment to essentially hold serve and with higher OHC in the Bahamas, I really don’t see any reason that this won’t continue strengthening until there’s some sort of core imperfection. I think 10-15kts of additional intensification is not unreasonable, particularly because the core is still stable for the time being. Like windspeed said earlier, the lack of outer banding is almost certainly serving to stabilize the eyewall. Essentially the only thing stopping Dorian now is inner core dynamics.

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2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

FWIW Icon 18z tracks ominously close to what the IBM model is forecasting. 

source.gif

 

Is this the new current track ? This will destroy the whole east coast of Florida ? 

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1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Is this the new current track ? This will destroy the whole east coast of Florida ? 

The Icon has been remarkably consistent in its tracking of Dorian.  But it is a less reliable model.  What is interesting to me is that it mirrors more closely what IBM’s experimental supercomputer is forecasting.  Basically all I’m saying is that it’s way premature to be sounding the all clear in any part of Florida at this juncture.

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I don't think I've ever seen recon do a simultaneous pass. Really interesting. They got similar data which reaffirms to me that this has crossed the category five threshold. 

ETA: I'd love to see a SW to NE pass. I can only imagine with what we're seeing right now. 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't think I've ever seen recon do a simultaneous pass. Really interesting. They got similar data which reaffirms to me that this has crossed the category five threshold. 

ETA: I'd love to see a SW to NE pass. I can only imagine with what we're seeing right now. 

Ehh, the NW quad is the RFQ right now, which is probably all the more reason they doubled back to check it one more time before leaving.

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14 minutes ago, Hotair said:

FWIW Icon 18z tracks ominously close to what the IBM model is forecasting. 

source.gif

 

Umm yeah, I just spit out my glass of pinot noir.  If that verifies, that would be quite the disaster.  Thank goodness it's the ICON.

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Previous record was 2003, 2004 and 2005.

What Cat 5 was north of 23.4° in 2004? Ivan had weakened to a Cat 4. Again, this is pertaining to back-to-back years with a Cat 5 north of deep tropics / Tropic of Cancer. Not to derail the main discussion.

 

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Excellent work by the recon team. Here's the last VDM. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 2:49Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 19 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 2:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.22N 75.04W
B. Center Fix Location: 166 statute miles (266 km) to the ENE (61°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,551m (8,369ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 937mb (27.67 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 123kts (141.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the ESE (114°) of center fix at 2:08:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 122kts (From the SW at 140.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 2:08:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 142kts (163.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (293°) of center fix at 2:14:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 20° at 131kts (From the NNE at 150.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the WNW (295°) of center fix at 2:14:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,464m (8,084ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,453m (8,048ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) from the flight level center at 23:19:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
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Still cat 4 per NHC 11pm: 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

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