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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

153 in the NW eyewall... I hate to think what it would be in the NE...

that is the strongest part of the storm... it is always the right front quadrant based on forward motion. In this case that would be the NW. However, the additive (or subtractive) effects of forward motion really don't make much of a difference with a cane going less than 10 mph...

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5 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

You may be confusing mph for knots.

Isn't it about time we do away with knots and go with mph?
Granted when we were floating around in boats and ships, knots were the way we spoke. But now, everyone has a car and mph is the way we speak. Watch the weather on TV and wind is mph, watch a hurricane and it is knots. Come on, get with the times. Storms do not need to be an ancient esoteric dialog where the general public has to decode what the heck is going on.

:)

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Isn't it about time we do away with knots and go with mph?
Granted when we were floating around in boats and ships, knots were the way we spoke. But now, everyone has a car and mph is the way we speak. Watch the weather on TV and wind is mph, watch a hurricane and it is knots. Come on, get with the times. Storms do not need to be an ancient esoteric dialog where the general public has to decode what the heck is going on.

:)

HDOBS and VDMs aren't meant for public consumption... if you want information geared for the public then stick to the Key Messages and Public Forecast issued by the NHC. An internationally standardized scientific community does not need to change things to make it "easier" for one part of the world.

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Isn't it about time we do away with knots and go with mph?

Granted when we were floating around in boats and ships, knots were the way we spoke. But now, everyone has a car and mph is the way we speak. Watch the weather on TV and wind is mph, watch a hurricane and it is knots. Come on, get with the times. Storms do not need to be an ancient esoteric dialog where the general public has to decode what the heck is going on.

:)

Aviation and shipping are still in knots and wind affects them more than people day to day.

 

Impressive pass.  Doing the typical 10% deduction from flight level winds to get SFC results in 135kt/155mph.

 

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4 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said:

that is the strongest part of the storm... it is always the right front quadrant based on forward motion. In this case that would be the NW. However, the additive (or subtractive) effects of forward motion really don't make much of a difference with a cane going less than 10 mph...

Nah NW is left of motion. Its NE.  

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Nah NW is left of motion. Its NE.  

you're right. I had to think about the motion vectors for a second. either way, not going to make much difference in a nearly stationary cane

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2 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said:

HDOBS and VDMs aren't meant for public consumption...

OK then, esoteric it is. Secret stuff is always cool for those in the inner circle. ;)

I stand corrected, humbled. LOL

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

OK then, esoteric it is. Secret stuff is always cool for those in the inner circle. ;)

I stand corrected, humbled. LOL

Plus most of the world outside of the US uses km/h not mph. 

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Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 1st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 26.3N 75.0W
Location: 170 statute miles (274 km) to the ENE (59°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -402m (-1,319 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
955mb (28.20 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 315° (from the NW) 155 knots (178 mph)
925mb 285m (935 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.5°C (72°F) 335° (from the NNW) 151 knots (174 mph)
850mb 1,023m (3,356 ft) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 20.6°C (69°F) 20° (from the NNE) 135 knots (155 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 1:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.30N 75.02W
- Time: 1:19:45Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.17N 75.05W
- Time: 1:23:16Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 335° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 147 knots (169 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 5° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 126 knots (145 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 954mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 325° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 151 knots (174 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30402
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
955mb (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.0°C (75°F)
850mb 20.6°C (69.1°F) 20.6°C (69°F)
753mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 17.0°C (63°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
955mb (Surface) 315° (from the NW) 155 knots (178 mph)
934mb 330° (from the NNW) 150 knots (173 mph)
926mb 335° (from the NNW) 152 knots (175 mph)
920mb 335° (from the NNW) 145 knots (167 mph)
912mb 345° (from the NNW) 147 knots (169 mph)
905mb 350° (from the N) 142 knots (163 mph)
896mb 350° (from the N) 143 knots (165 mph)
889mb 355° (from the N) 153 knots (176 mph)
885mb 0° (from the N) 151 knots (174 mph)
882mb 5° (from the N) 168 knots (193 mph)
881mb 5° (from the N) 170 knots (196 mph)
879mb 5° (from the N) 164 knots (189 mph)
872mb 10° (from the N) 156 knots (180 mph)
868mb 10° (from the N) 143 knots (165 mph)
866mb 15° (from the NNE) 139 knots (160 mph)
864mb 15° (from the NNE) 146 knots (168 mph)
862mb 15° (from the NNE) 141 knots (162 mph)
861mb 15° (from the NNE) 142 knots (163 mph)
859mb 15° (from the NNE) 132 knots (152 mph)
856mb 20° (from the NNE) 129 knots (148 mph)
850mb 20° (from the NNE) 135 knots (155 mph)
841mb 20° (from the NNE) 149 knots (171 mph)
804mb 30° (from the NNE) 124 knots (143 mph)
753mb 40° (from the NE) 114 knots (131 mph)
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1 minute ago, Kyle-1 said:

SFMR, flight level winds, dropsonde, and reduction from flight level winds all support an upgrade to Cat 5. Min 145 knots IMO. 

yeah, they'll update it at 11 i think

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12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Plus most of the world outside of the US uses km/h not mph. 

True, but this is AmericanWX and of 15,509 members most of us are "general public" and used to mph. We appreciate the scientific community, aviators, mariners, and meteorologist that keep us informed here, but some respect for your audience is a nice gesture. Granted, knots is the standard way to speak of the speed of wind for you all. I guess we'll learn it or have cheat sheets to refer to. I am glad that on this forum we are not talking about how many kilometers a storm may be from the coast, or wherever, even though the extra math is not difficult to figure out.
Not complaining at all. I know when I speak with my clients about computer or networking stuff I try to speak their language as much as possible, otherwise I tend to come off as arrogant.

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Not only will this make four years in the row for Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, this is back-to-back years with a Category 5 north of 25° latitude, outside of the deep tropics, which is perhaps even more remarkable.

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