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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Given the rapid intensification and ongoing deviation from the 5 PM advisory intensity guidance, I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory issued in lieu of the 8 PM update. The current forecast doesn't have 115 knots until Hour 36 (5 PM advisory). 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, Icon is either bonkers or really scoring a coup sending it in the eastern GOM.    Keep the Tampaites interested.  

Yeah I’ve looped that a few times, it’s a bit of a problematic simulation for a lot of people down here.

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First vortex message. Note the eye has shrunk from 25 to 20 NM. 

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 23:21Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 22:58:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.22N 70.89W
B. Center Fix Location: 405 statute miles (652 km) to the E (88°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,687m (8,816ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 13kts (From the SW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 112kts (128.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 22:57:04Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 116kts (From the NNE at 133.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (322°) of center fix at 22:56:36Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (107°) of center fix at 23:00:36Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 108kts (From the SW at 124.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (107°) of center fix at 23:00:34Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,097m (10,161ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy / Meteorological Accuracy (Undecoded): 0.01 / NA

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (322°) from the flight level center at 22:56:36Z


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

Sur press from dropsonde

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1 minute ago, David Reimer said:

Given the rapid intensification and ongoing deviation from the 5 PM advisory intensity guidance I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory issued in lieu of the 8 PM advisory. The current forecast doesn't have 115 knots until Hour 36 (5 PM advisory). 

Only have a bit more than half an hour to go and they sometimes release it earlier.

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5 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde - 951 MB with a 13-knot splashdown, so around 950 millibars. A 20 millibar drop in about six hours. 

45 mb pressure drop across 20nm's.  That's just a big a#& hole in the atmosphere.  That's one of the biggest drops/distance I've seen.

(Link if you want to play  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml)

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Why hasn't the NHC hoisted Hurricane watches for S Fla?

The 5pm discussion from NHC explained why

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Why hasn't the NHC hoisted Hurricane watches for S Fla?

From the 5pm discussion

Quote
Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for
the Florida coast at this time.

 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, Icon is either bonkers or really scoring a coup sending it in the eastern GOM.    Keep the Tampaites interested.  

Been reading as many posts as I can over the past days, always look at ICON, but hasn't the discussion mostly dismissed ICON for Dorian?
Not that I tend to believe everything I read anywhere, but near the water in Gulfport Florida in the Tampa Bay area I am always paying attention to everything. Is ICON worth paying attention to? (Being the family's resident weather self-proclaimed expert who is merely a weather obsessive maniac from birth.)
Granted I filled both vehicles up with gas in lines today as gas was running out, spent hours finding a place to buy a tank of propane just as the propane truck was leaving among dozens of people in front of a Home Depot with shopping carts of empty tanks, etc., all day.

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18z HWRF is moving towards the NW from a position about 40 miles east of Melbourne at 90 hours.  Both of the 18z HMON/HWRF are 40 to 60 miles to the north and east of the 12z runs.

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Here's the dropsonde from the SE portion of the eyewall. Impressive from top to bottom. It's definitively a category four hurricane IMO. NE pass will be interesting. 

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 23:32Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 30th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 25.2N 70.7W
Location: 417 statute miles (671 km) to the E (89°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -240m (-787 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
973mb (28.74 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.1°C (77°F) Unavailable
925mb 448m (1,470 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 180° (from the S) 115 knots (132 mph)
850mb 1,187m (3,894 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 17.6°C (64°F) 190° (from the S) 111 knots (128 mph)
700mb 2,847m (9,341 ft) 12.2°C (54.0°F) 10.5°C (51°F) 220° (from the SW) 106 knots (122 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 25.19N 70.75W
- Time: 23:00:41Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 25.31N 70.71W
- Time: 23:05:00Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 105 knots (121 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 972mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 113 knots (130 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30402

Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
973mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.1°C (77°F)
942mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 23.4°C (74°F)
880mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 20.7°C (69°F)
850mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 17.6°C (64°F)
696mb 12.6°C (54.7°F) 9.7°C (49°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
973mb (Surface) Unavailable
972mb 145° (from the SE) 97 knots (112 mph)
970mb 145° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
969mb 150° (from the SSE) 118 knots (136 mph)
962mb 155° (from the SSE) 111 knots (128 mph)
957mb 160° (from the SSE) 119 knots (137 mph)
949mb 165° (from the SSE) 116 knots (133 mph)
942mb 170° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph)
936mb 165° (from the SSE) 123 knots (142 mph)
931mb 175° (from the S) 114 knots (131 mph)
919mb 175° (from the S) 116 knots (133 mph)
912mb 180° (from the S) 111 knots (128 mph)
877mb 185° (from the S) 109 knots (125 mph)
850mb 190° (from the S) 111 knots (128 mph)
696mb 225° (from the SW) 105 knots (121 mph)

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5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Been reading as many posts as I can over the past days, always look at ICON, but hasn't the discussion mostly dismissed ICON for Dorian?
Not that I tend to believe everything I read anywhere, but near the water in Gulfport Florida in the Tampa Bay area I am always paying attention to everything. Is ICON worth paying attention to? (Being the family's resident weather self-proclaimed expert who is merely a weather obsessive maniac from birth.)
Granted I filled both vehicles up with gas in lines today as gas was running out, spent hours finding a place to buy a tank of propane just as the propane truck was leaving among dozens of people in front of a Home Depot with shopping carts of empty tanks, etc., all day.

Icon is on the south/ west edge of the guidance envelope at this time.

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9 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Been reading as many posts as I can over the past days, always look at ICON, but hasn't the discussion mostly dismissed ICON for Dorian?
Not that I tend to believe everything I read anywhere, but near the water in Gulfport Florida in the Tampa Bay area I am always paying attention to everything. Is ICON worth paying attention to? (Being the family's resident weather self-proclaimed expert who is merely a weather obsessive maniac from birth.)
Granted I filled both vehicles up with gas in lines today as gas was running out, spent hours finding a place to buy a tank of propane just as the propane truck was leaving among dozens of people in front of a Home Depot with shopping carts of empty tanks, etc., all day.

As I understand it, there are two ICON models. One is an intensity model, and one is the German Global Model. The ICON model people are referencing with regard to landfall is the German Global Model. It's a pretty good model. Why they are both called ICON, I don't know.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Could we be looking at 130-140mph winds at the next advisory?

I think it is very possible.  Whether they do a special update remains to be seen.

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Guess they want to see what winds in the northeast quad are before committing to an upgrade. The only explanation I see is that they 'assume' the dropsonde winds were gusts versus sustained. Still, not particularly solid footing and I anticipate the post-storm report will correct it. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'd go 951mb/130mph based on recon so far. 

The 951mb dropsonde did have a 13kt wind. Since it's still rapidly deepening, I'd err on the side of a stronger storm and go with an even 950mb and 135mph.

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2 minutes ago, jasons said:

The 951mb dropsonde did have a 13kt wind. Since it's still rapidly deepening, I'd err on the side of a stronger storm and go with an even 950mb and 135mph.

Yeah, I meant to say 950mb. Not enough sleep lol. 

What I really want to see, more than the wind in the NE portion of the eyewall, is whether there's another pressure drop in between. That would help tell us if intensification is ongoing at a rapid pace or "leveling" off. 

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...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DORIAN STRONGER...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

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18z HWRF has the western eyewall coming ashore at Titusville at 102 hours.  Pressure 952mb.  This is still well east of the 12z run but much worse for the NE Florida coast.

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