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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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13 minutes ago, high risk said:

   A decent chunk of EC ensemble members have been showing the "no landfall" solution for several cycles now, so there is absolutely a chance that this ends up happening.

Lets it slows down and just scrapes. The flooding related to a stalling major hurricane nearby to the coast would be a nightmare.

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12z GFS says E SC and E NC get hit hard too staring at hr 150... Dorian slows down and almost sort of stalls... this is from hours 168 to 192... finally pulls away off OBX at 204

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the hurricane models, icon, nams all show key largo to palm beach hit but the gfs jumps n. Which family is more reliable here? The mesos and hurricane models or the globals?

 

I wouldn’t touch the GFS unless the Euro and UKMET begin to shift more north or an increasing number of ensembles do it.  The ICON has actually been very good so far on Dorian’s track 

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If ridge is slightly weaker or not pressing quite as hard, the forward momentum won't slow nearly as quickly (more of a NW trajectory) before hitting a slowing point. Don't see a complete recurve at this point (but not totally impossible) and wouldn't put my guard down anywhere from Charleston to Miami.

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Climo always wins. Climo says the ridge is over amplified and will weaken and this is a ots. Maybe this rare chance it's wrong. Also shear is 20kts over Dorian right now. Not conducive for strengthening.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t touch the GFS unless the Euro and UKMET begin to shift more north or an increasing number of ensembles do it.  The ICON has actually been very good so far on Dorian’s track 

Thank you, the level of wishcasting in this forum makes it almost unreadable, for high impact events it might be worth having a met-only thread, and then any posts that sound like a high school student's hope for a delayed school year can be nixed without hurting anyone's feelings

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Climo always wins. Climo says the ridge is over amplified and will weaken and this is a ots. Maybe this rare chance it's wrong. Also shear is 20kts over Dorian right now. Not conducive for strengthening.

The only thing less clear to me than the eventual path of Dorian is why you are allowed to post on this message board. 

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The "never makes landfall" scenario is about to move from theory to modeled solution -- the new Canadian through 108 hours has the eye just offshore, or perhaps straddling the coast at 102 hours. 

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5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

The only thing less clear to me than the eventual path of Dorian is why you are allowed to post on this message board. 

As of now, he's not. 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t touch the GFS unless the Euro and UKMET begin to shift more north or an increasing number of ensembles do it.  The ICON has actually been very good so far on Dorian’s track 

12z Icon holds serve - Landfall Miami Tuesday morning 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like a scraper scenario will be less intense, though.

yep-a scraper would be like  Matthew a few years back-the NE quadrant would be over the water....certainly anything's possible here...one to watch and wait as the models continue to ingest new data.

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As of now, he's not. 

You just beat me to it.

Let it be a warning to some others here.  Make stupid posts and you might be suspended, too.

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It appears in the last couple of images of this animation that Dorian now has a pinhole eye:

The latest recon pass has the eye at 25 miles wide.... a pretty good size.

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I also would prefer to see models largely shift to a miss in 36-48 hours.  I would be concerned that a wholesale shift today could be the too early headfake over adjust and we would return to very bad landfall scenarios later 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I also would prefer to see models largely shift to a miss in 36-48 hours.  I would be concerned that a wholesale shift today could be the too early headfake over adjust and we would return to very bad landfall scenarios later 

This made my head hurt. 

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24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t touch the GFS unless the Euro and UKMET begin to shift more north or an increasing number of ensembles do it.  The ICON has actually been very good so far on Dorian’s track 

I did notice as well the icon has been consistent asf with the far south FL hit (northern keys to fort Lauderdale roughly).

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Probably just robust convection shrouding over eye. The eye will clear as the storm matures.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I did notice as well the icon has been consistent asf with the far south FL hit (northern keys to fort Lauderdale roughly).

There were jokes on many of the sub forums the last 3 winters that the ICON is actually a very good model beyond 72 and sniffs our storms or eventual tracks of storms at day 4-5 when the GFS/EURO have nothing are in disagreement but makes all sorts of gaffs inside of that.  It’s sort of shown the same thing with Dorian so far 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

There were jokes on many of the sub forums the last 3 winters that the ICON is actually a very good model beyond 72 and sniffs our storms or eventual tracks of storms at day 4-5 when the GFS/EURO have nothing are in disagreement but makes all sorts of gaffs inside of that.  It’s sort of shown the same thing with Dorian so far 

So the ICON is its own standalone model then, correct? I've read people saying it's a mean or combination of other models.

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16 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z Icon holds serve - Landfall Miami Tuesday morning 

That run was brutal. Miami high end CAT 3 Tampa Low end CAT 2 and Jacksonville strong tropical storm. 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

There were jokes on many of the sub forums the last 3 winters that the ICON is actually a very good model beyond 72 and sniffs our storms or eventual tracks of storms at day 4-5 when the GFS/EURO have nothing are in disagreement but makes all sorts of gaffs inside of that.  It’s sort of shown the same thing with Dorian so far 

Any thoughts regarding the Icon for the path of Dorian after LF? 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There were jokes on many of the sub forums the last 3 winters that the ICON is actually a very good model beyond 72 and sniffs our storms or eventual tracks of storms at day 4-5 when the GFS/EURO have nothing are in disagreement but makes all sorts of gaffs inside of that.  It’s sort of shown the same thing with Dorian so far 

No Joke for the Upper MA.  When it comes to apparent weather the Icon won last winter in LR forecasting.   The GFS was not so good.  

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