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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

And Royal Caribbean's Coco Cay (which RC just sunk a ton of money into).  And Norwegian's Great Stirrup Cay

Me:  Watches YT video about RC's island that said those giant water slides were built to withstand Cat4 winds.

Dorian: Hold my beer.

Bahamas going to look a little different after this weekend I'm afraid.  

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7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I have no idea how that forecast works but is it possible they just expect more precip on the eastern side of the storm?

I think (at least this iteration) is basing it on the Bermuda high holding its strength and initially shunting the moisture around the flow's perimeter.  If the high did actually weaken or move further east I think you would see heavier precip inland.

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35 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Really seeing the eye now...

That airborne HH radar was mentioned upthread in a NHC forecast too. Anybody know if a public live or archived feed is available?

Radar's sort of a avocation, first trained with, and utilized it in the late 1960's. Currently own 4-5 marine radar units, with most at home. Not dopplers, but you can get an interesting look at approaching storms [which we haven't had many of in months, in a worsening drought now].

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Hmmmm -- GFS trending a good bit faster and farther north than the 6z run through just 36 hours. 


Skip, can you do some pbp as I’m at work and can only sneek a peek?


.

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Interesting that a sharp right turn showed up in the 11 am advisory. I'm in Stuart, and if/when that turn takes place is immensely important.  

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The whole stall and curve north just offshore is just as possible as a direct hit IMO. I don’t know if I’d lean that way,  but it’s something to consider. Not easy for the decision makers in FL right now.

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Through 96 hours, 12z GFS well north -- still hasn't made landfall at 12z Tuesday off the central Florida coast. Not sure it's that much slower, just took a longer path to get to the coast. Started off quicker than the 6z run. 

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46 minutes ago, AU74 said:

That forecast make it look like there's a small chance it turns north before hitting south Florida.

I completely disagree. That cone literally spells out a turn to the north.

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114 Dorian ravaging the east coast of FL while just inland and moving N... south of JAX near Daytona Beach... at 120 is over JAX

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The whole stall and curve north just offshore is just as possible as a direct hit IMO. I don’t know if I’d lean that way,  but it’s something to consider. Not easy for the decision makers in FL right now.

A few were wondering what I was talking about yesterday when I said that it wouldn't surprise me if it stayed just off shore as Matt did.  I don't know if I'd lean that way completely either, but there is a chance this spares a direct hit.   

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Hey guys depending on the latest models runs and days coming in w the slight budge to the north how do.you see the impacts of Dorian affecting palm bay where my house is??? Do you guys still see it making landfill or actually matthew 2.0 and staying just offshore..how much of that high pressure to the north will weaken to really veer it?? Thank you guys for answering my post..

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

A few were wondering what I was talking about yesterday when I said that it wouldn't surprise me if it stayed just off shore as Matt did.  I don't know if I'd lean that way completely, but there is a chance this spares a direct hit.   

   A decent chunk of EC ensemble members have been showing the "no landfall" solution for several cycles now, so there is absolutely a chance that this ends up happening.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

   A decent chunk of EC ensemble members have been showing the "no landfall" solution for several cycles now, so there is absolutely a chance that this ends up happening.

Completely agree!  Saw those ensembles hinting at that yesterday and realized there was a chance this could stay just offshore....we'll see??

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24 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I would say this is a significant model shift through only 48 hours. 

Doriangif.gif

You can see how just a subtle change in the ridge to the north has a great effect on the path...don't think the shifting around on the models will stop until 12-18hrs prior to LF.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Completely agree!  Saw those ensembles hinting at that yesterday and realized there was a chance this could stay just offshore....we'll see??

So the hurricane models, icon, nams all show key largo to palm beach hit but the gfs jumps n. Which family is more reliable here? The mesos and hurricane models or the globals?

 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the hurricane models, icon, nams all show key largo to palm beach hit but the gfs jumps n. Which family is more reliable here? The mesos and hurricane models or the globals?

 

Definitely not the mesoscale models, I'll say that. Those things aren't calibrated for TCs, and I really wouldn't even use them for track. 

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