• Member Statistics

    16,018
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    anathema
    Newest Member
    anathema
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

Look at the placement of the cutoff out over the Gulf at 120. With the WAR over the Mid-Atlantic, steering flow should continue to drive Dorian WNW between both features.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said:

Any guesses on whether it can expand in size as it gets closer to Florida?  Are will it stay a small compact storm probably?

Impossible to say given we don't know how much the interaction with Hispaniola/PR will impact the storm, not to mention the inherent unpredictability of ERCs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Look at the placement of the cutoff out over the Gulf at 120. With the WAR over the Mid-Atlantic, steering flow should continue to drive Dorian WNW between both features.

It seems like shear keeps it in check in the Bahamas this run. I thought it was for sure going to intensify after missing the tallest peaks in the Greater Antilles.

Might be something that could be a saving grace for the SE, though again, it’s early. I wonder how much a shift north we see from the ensembles.

Recon should be interesting tonight. Looks like deep convection is waning right now.

ETA: as I say that the microwave pass looks pretty good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There continues to be very dry air ahead of Dorian.  Look at that desert-like relative humidity at mid level.  It's not easy to maintain deep convection in that kind of environment.

 

EC6rnV6XsAAzDDX.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It seems like shear keeps it in check in the Bahamas this run. I thought it was for sure going to intensify after missing the tallest peaks in the Greater Antilles.

Might be something that could be a saving grace for the SE, though again, it’s early. I wonder how much a shift north we see from the ensembles.

Recon should be interesting tonight. Looks like deep convection is waning right now.

ETA: as I say that the microwave pass looks pretty good.

I mean if it had shown a strong system making landfall, it would have been attention worthy, sure. Eye-opening even. But too many variables that far out. The fact that it has resolved a CONUS landfalling system since the 0z is more noteworthy versus before in hardly even resolving the system. Could be a struggling TS, yes, could also have an upper environment evolve that is not resolving well at that range with two large atmospheric features juxtaposed. This is 120+ hrs out afterall and we're squeezing a TC between them. But as most have already pointed out: Hispaniola is the biggest factor in any of this and will remain that until we start seeing a NW motion by Dorian for better projected path.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro isn't very intense, but it's a small storm so there's definitely microcane potential here if it can survive the islands intact enough to rejuvenate. 

I surprised at how small the pressure and wind fields look on the GFS legacy and ICON. Models can grossly underestimate the intensity of these kinds of storms, and Florida has been hit with several of these in the past. 

There is another system trying to form in the western Gulf this weekend if the forecast wasn't complicated enough. That could create shear and a fujiwara.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There continues to be very dry air ahead of Dorian.  Look at that desert-like relative humidity at mid level.  It's not easy to maintain deep convection in that kind of environment.

 

EC6rnV6XsAAzDDX.jpg

About as dry as you can get lol

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bear with me I know its been asked before ( even by me ) but where can I find the spaghetti maps ? Are they available on tidbits or somewhere else ( if so where can I access them ) or must you pay to get those ? Thanks in advance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bear with me I know its been asked before ( even by me ) but where can I find the spaghetti maps ? Are they available on tidbits or somewhere else ( if so where can I access them ) or must you pay to get those ? Thanks in advance

Tropical Tidbits... Go to "Current Storms", and it will be with Dorian

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bear with me I know its been asked before ( even by me ) but where can I find the spaghetti maps ? Are they available on tidbits or somewhere else ( if so where can I access them ) or must you pay to get those ? Thanks in advance

I like spaghettimodels.com for all tropical weather related content. The page updates everything on its own.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8/26/19 18Z SHIPS

 

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  43% is   3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  31% is   4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  36% is   8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  31% is   6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of the survival tracks take a jog to the northwest over the next 36hrs. The ones that keep it going due west shred it. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed that curved band as well.  However, I'm just not crazy about the satellite presentation.  The convection needs to be organized and try to wrap around a center.  A blob that just travels along with the circulation won't help much.  Recon is almost there, so we'll get a picture of the core soon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah the band feature on radar appears to be a mid level vort within the strong MCS while the actual base of the surface vort / llc is a tick northeast of that feature. Clearly it has some work to do and is entraining dry air around the southern periphery into the core. Good example of how remote sensing can be a little deceiving.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.