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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

That's dry air mixing in, we saw this with Harvey also. 

Dry air is -70c cloud tops in the eyewall? 

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There's absolutely 0 signs of dry air wrapping into the center. And shear wouldn't be the determinant for dry air. I do agree shear from the ULL is impacting it from majorly taking off yet but that's going to change soon

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

There's absolutely 0 signs of dry air wrapping into the center. And shear wouldn't be the determinant for dry air. I do agree shear from the ULL is impacting it from majorly taking off yet but that's going to change soon

There is a blob of dry air to the South. That's why we are witness to the "hook".

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Tomer Burg‏ @burgwx

Re: increasing intensity & more axisymmetric wind field, this matches the improved satellite appearance w/ a small CDO following last night's dry air intrusion. Re: broader wind field, would think the concentric eyewalls/ERC attempt are responsible, or are there other thoughts?

The evening recon pass so far has found not only a stronger #Dorian, with estimated wind at Category 2 intensity, but a better organized & larger wind field. Hurricane-force wind is now evident in all 4 quadrants, and 50+kt winds extend to near 50km to the east of Dorian.

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Unflagged 92 and 90kt SFMR. I'm not sure what the issue is here. This is an intensifying hurricane. Period. 

ETA: just look at the post directly above. It's not a fluke this is intensifying at a quickening rate. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see no blob of dry air to the south 

Screenshot_20190829-211854_Samsung Internet.jpg

To the Southwest. It's the yellow color. SAL is also increasing.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unflagged 92 and 90kt SFMR. I'm not sure what the issue is here. This is an intensifying hurricane. Period. 

ETA: just look at the post directly above. It's not a fluke this is intensifying at a quickening rate. 

also: recon plane just hit 975mb and 976mb in the last 2 passes, apparently 95 kt flight-level, and, as you mentioned, 92 kt surface wind. Usually the surface wind is about 10% less than flight level wind though.

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4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

To the Southwest. It's the yellow color. SAL is also increasing.

Well that really isn't much of any dry air. It was in way worse prior to passing PR. Moisture in atmosphere in only improving with NW movement. The core last night was opened and exposed to dry air. It has done well at keeping the core more consolidated tonight

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well that really isn't much of any dry air. It was in way worse prior to passing PR. Moisture in atmosphere in only improving with NW movement. The core last night was opened and exposed to dry air. It has done well at keeping the core more consolidated tonight

I think the downslope effect from CUBA is the cause for that dry air. Maybe CUBA is effecting this storm 

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z EPS continues with the trend of curving north before impacting FL. At least the mean anyways. 

Can you post an image 

I heard there were more  western members then 12z

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I think the downslope effect from CUBA is the cause for that dry air. Maybe CUBA is effecting this storm 

Do you mean Hispaniola? Storm is hundreds of miles from Cuba. Either way think you’re mistaken. Recon shows an organizing and strengthening storm.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Do you mean Hispaniola? Storm is hundreds of miles from Cuba. Either way think you’re mistaken. Recon shows an organizing and strengthening storm.

That one. 63 degree dew point is very dry. It's still within the threshold.

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

are you trolling?

He's about to be the first guy ever suspended from 3 different hurricane threads if he keeps it up.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can you post an image 

I heard there were more  western members then 12z

Can’t on phone, but there does seem to be two camps. One into FL and one that skims coastline as it moves north. 

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

I’m always skeptical of cat 4’s. Particularly for slow movers — upwelling, continental dry air, etc. Been tracking since 1974.

This could be a obstruction to Dorian!

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

Just trying to give my scientific opinion viewpoint. I will try and be more detailed.

more symmetrical, better outflow, winds increasing, pressure keeps dropping on every pass, not sure what you're seeing but OK, at least not seeing tonight.

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

This could be a obstruction to Dorian!

Just think about it. If such a scenario is unavoidable then at least parking Dorian over the gulf stream will diminish the upwelling.

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A few days ago there was a recon dropsonde that revealed an environment with 1% humidity at 400mb, 5% at 500mb, and 34% at 700mb.

Dorian was able to survive that and gradually intensify.

If Dorian somehow "underperforms" on intensity, I do not think it will be dry air. If you are looking objectively at potential roadblocks at intensification, well timed ERCs, upwelling as it slows near the coast, and unmodeled shear would be my choices. 

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2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Just think about it. If such a scenario is unavoidable then at least parking Dorian over the gulf stream will diminish the upwelling.

Isabel really bombed out at the same spot 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

A few days ago there was a recon dropsonde that revealed an environment with 1% humidity at 400mb, 5% at 500mb, and 34% at 700mb.

Dorian was able to survive that and gradually intensify.

If Dorian somehow "underperforms" on intensity, I do not think it will be dry air. If you are looking objectively at potential roadblocks at intensification, well timed ERCs, upwelling as it slows near the coast, and unmodeled shear would be my choices. 

ERC's would be my guess, some of the big ones never recover after they peak

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The one negative I am seeing now is the restricted outflow on the south/Souther western quad. Can still see some southerly flow around 70-66°/20° N impeding the outflow. Can’t cross off all the check boxes yet for a classic look It’s not dry air, just being restricted for now.

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6 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

The one negative I am seeing now is the restricted outflow on the south/Souther western quad. Can still see some southerly flow around 70-66°/20° N impeding the outflow. Can’t cross off all the check boxes yet for a classic look It’s not dry air, just being restricted for now.

Yea I still think it is feeling the effects of the ULL. I think tomorrow through Sat we will see its outflow really improve and probably a more notable strengthening trend

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