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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

recon_NOAA2-1505A-DORIAN_zoom.png

Nice about 1.5-2mb per hour. If it keeps it up it will be a major by morning.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

While an eyewall replacement cycle has been ongoing.

I expected a drop but not like that. Gotta see if this continues during the recon flight.

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The Air Force plane has the extrap pressure at about 977 mb.  It also found 79 kts SFMR in the northeast quad.

I thought an eyewall replacement cycle was well underway, but I'm not seeing much of a double wind max, if any.

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6Eqw7RY.png

I really don't see a second eye-wall there. If there is it isn't impressive.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Air Force plane has the extrap pressure at about 977 mb.  It also found 79 kts SFMR in the northeast quad.

I thought an eyewall replacement cycle was well underway, but I'm not seeing much of a double wind max, if any.

980 sonde with a 21kt wind on the second plane so I agree that the extrapolated might have been a bit too low. Still have a fairly stiff rise in FL and SFMR winds. 

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First VDM from the new missions. Pressures have dropped and it looks like the ERC is over. However, the eye is a bit open. Hasn't seemed to have much of an impact since Dorian is clearly intensifying. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 0:22Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:51:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.85N 67.97W
B. Center Fix Location: 224 statute miles (361 km) to the ENE (65°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 21kts (From the ENE at 24mph)
F. Eye Character (Undecoded): OPEN S/SE
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix at 23:46:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 59kts (From the NNW at 67.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix at 23:49:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ENE (61°) of center fix at 23:58:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 153° at 86kts (From the SSE at 99.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NE (55°) of center fix at 23:59:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) which was observed 86 nautical miles (99 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) from the flight level center at 23:59:30Z

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Recon describes the eye as C15, so that suggests the tiny inner eyewall dissipated this afternoon and the outer wall contracted somewhat.  I think the earlier vort message said something like C04-25.

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Dropsonde from the NE eyewall. Y'all let me know if you don't want me to post :P

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 0:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 30th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 23.0N 67.8W
Location: 239 statute miles (384 km) to the ENE (64°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
Marsden Square: 079 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -31m (-102 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 90° (from the E) 71 knots (82 mph)
925mb 654m (2,146 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.7°C (71°F) 115° (from the ESE) 82 knots (94 mph)
850mb 1,387m (4,551 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.8°C (64°F) 120° (from the ESE) 83 knots (96 mph)
700mb 3,034m (9,954 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 150° (from the SSE) 79 knots (91 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 22.99N 67.78W
- Time: 0:00:12Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 23.04N 67.88W
- Time: 0:04:51Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 80 knots (92 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 79 knots (91 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 996mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30400
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
997mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.3°C (76°F)
850mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.8°C (64°F)
712mb 11.2°C (52.2°F) 11.2°C (52°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 71 knots (82 mph)
991mb 90° (from the E) 72 knots (83 mph)
985mb 90° (from the E) 81 knots (93 mph)
976mb 95° (from the E) 82 knots (94 mph)
970mb 100° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)
961mb 105° (from the ESE) 86 knots (99 mph)
942mb 110° (from the ESE) 82 knots (94 mph)
934mb 110° (from the ESE) 85 knots (98 mph)
903mb 115° (from the ESE) 78 knots (90 mph)
886mb 120° (from the ESE) 83 knots (96 mph)
850mb 120° (from the ESE) 83 knots (96 mph)
697mb 150° (from the SSE) 79 knots (91 mph)
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1 minute ago, Jaguars said:

18z HRWF slams Dorian into Canaveral as a Cat 4, turning towards Deland, Fl at end of run

It actually peaks at 135kts just prior to landfall.

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It's over core is doing pretty well. Guessing the shear from nearby upper low is still preventing Dorian from organizing the eyewall completely. I'm thinking after tonight we should see a notable more rapid intensification. Looks like it will be moving into less shear soon

wg8sht.GIF.gif

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24 hours ago we had a well-organized hurricane with an open eyewall to the southeast. It looked mean, but pressures were high. Now the pressures have really dropped and the eye isn't open yet. Who knows where we'll be this time tomorrow?

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6 minutes ago, friedmators said:


HMON threads the needle between the keys and Cuba.


.

Gets it up to 145kts.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

New recon pass......  94 kts flight level, 85 kts SFMR, no flag.

Beat me to it. Very strong look. My guess is that the center pass shows a continued drop in pressure. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yikes

D5845E18-5FE2-4C09-A6BC-D0C570645917.png

It's still battling dry air and shear. I'm hoping this is a weakening trend! The ridge has trended towards a recurve too.

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well mathew was devastating to the carolinas as well with lots of flooding..

I’d wager that there were close to as many trees down 70 miles inland as there were from Hugo


.

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47 minutes ago, friedmators said:


HMON threads the needle between the keys and Cuba.


.

 

41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Gets it up to 145kts.

That's why I referenced an earlier HMON run before. The 18z run loop for 84-126h out is now missing Miami, drops down and is indeed traversing the FL Strait and hooking N on into the GOM as a Cat 5 the whole way [buh bye Key West].

Then what?

[Edit: Meant to mention the comparable HWRF which also has bent S, but remains somewhat N of the HMON. I'd be getting on the road if in southern Florida. I waited on Harvey as long as I thought prudent, ~DdayLF-16hr, worst tropical WX driving ever had, unbelievable rainbands for ~60 miles inland. ]

 

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_fh84-126.gif

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Governor DeSantis declared a State of Emergency in all 67 counties, " “You can make the case for places like Miami and the Keys to get impacted. You could make the case for it to be northern Florida,” he added."


 

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Large burst around the West and Southern portions of the eyewall now trying to wrap all the way around. Maybe we’re finally about to see an eye on IR.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Large burst around the West and Southern portions of the eyewall now trying to wrap all the way around. Maybe we’re finally about to see an eye on IR.

That's dry air mixing in, we saw this with Harvey also. 

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