• Member Statistics

    16,018
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    anathema
    Newest Member
    anathema
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, Castaway said:

Looking meatier and getting the “Saw” look past hour or so. 

C8EB1010-3F36-4C92-B8F2-407DF8E1A98A.jpeg

Long comet like tail leading to very heavy rain in parts of Puerto Rico today. Tail reminiscent of 2005's Maria.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I'm talking about stalling in the Bahamas and then OTS which is a solution on the table now. A landfall is most likely solution right now, but it isn't a given. 

joaquin was a good distance from the us coastline that will not be the case with this storm..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

joaquin was a good distance from the us coastline that will not be the case with this storm..

Not everything is exactly like it, just throwing out a loose analog of sorts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Question

Has there been a speed bias with Dorian so far?  Like has it been consistently running slower or faster than modeled?  Or nothing noticeable?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind there likely are several members of the general public who are viewing this thread. Please consider leaving the 'banter' in the banter thread - including throwing out a bunch of 'prior systems' to compare this one too (many of which are poor analogs). 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This should hopefully help the models:

 

The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
the Bahamas.  A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
model cycle.
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Keep in mind there likely are several members of the general public who are viewing this thread. Please consider leaving the 'banter' in the banter thread - including throwing out a bunch of 'prior systems' to compare this one too (many of which are poor analogs). 

Also a friendly reminder that the general public should only rely upon the NHC and their local WFO’s for official forecasts and evacuation information. 

  • Like 12
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worst scenario I've seen yet [newbies/GP avert eyes]:

The 12z HMON MSLP-10m at 96h out shows Dorian about to LF NE of Miami with 919mb, 148kt/170mph, Cat 5.

Yeah, I sometimes favor the HMON, it did ok with LFing Harvey, iirc.

 

 

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_33 (1).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Worst scenario I've seen yet [newbies/GP avert eyes]:

The 12z HMON MSLP-10m at 96h out shows Dorian about to LF NE of Miami with 919mb, 148kt/170mph, Cat 5.

Yeah, I sometimes favor the HMON, it did ok with LFing Harvey, iirc.

 

 

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_33 (1).png

Well, it is the HMON but if that were to come to pass Dorian would be no more. It would become known as, The 2019 Great Labor-Day Hurricane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GFS is still shifting south. Hour 84 has it due east of Lake Okeechobee moving almost due west, looking like impending landfall around Jupiter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dorian finally developing a strong moisture influx on the southeast quadrant.  The radial outflow is developing nicely outside of the CDO on the south and southeast sides of the hurricane.  Also, low-level spiral bands look to be developing too in the southeast quadrant in the previous band of dry air.  ULL to the west is gaining longitude quicker than Dorian.  Shear from the south is still present as high altitude clouds race northward south of Dorian's core, but it could be more mid-level no higher than 15,000 feet as the cirrus outflow remains undisturbed.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’m old enough and have seen enough hurricanes to know this thing is not retaining its strength this long while over central FL. 

It really depends on speed, trajectory and if the storm is strengthening prior to LF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, jburns said:

Well, it is the HMON but if that were to come to pass Dorian would be no more. It would become known as, The 2019 Great Labor-Day Hurricane.

I had worked up a HWRF loop just before, but made some comparisons and that HMON bugged my eyes out. Harvey's initial LFs were bad enough on our Coastal Bend at mid/high-Cat 4 . Things haven't fully recovered yet.

A major strike on a megabucks metropolis like Miami would be beyond 'T2019GLDH', more like 'the day Florida had its' fingertip amputated'  :[  . No doubt it would be up there with 1900Galveston, 1933Keys, Katrina, et al.

Early, 'milder' HWRF loop, Vero Beach to Tarpon Springs, mas o menos:

[oops, file too big], link, if it works, 'lowerdynamic/MSLP 10m/forecast gif button', can be modified of course :

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082912&fh=84

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the short term I'm looking closely at where the eye will pass relative to 25/70. Earlier guidance suggested it would be south west of that point but trajectory through the day has been more NE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very relieved to see the majority of the 18z guidance cluster away from Tampa St Pete.   Don’t see much to be concerned about at the moment regarding major impacts here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.