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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

156 is Low end Cat 5

156 is the minimum threshold for a Cat 5. I'm not trying to downplay 170MPH as no big deal but it's not an unrealistic intensity given location, small core and environment up to LF. 

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Andrew Jr on the 12z Euro... similar trajectory and landfall.  Will be very curious to see the ensembles later.

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Watching these models from run to run is a mental workout.  Yesterday morning's Euro had Dorian well into the eastern gulf Tuesday morning.  This morning's run has it in the northern Bahamas.  Meanwhile, the UK speeds way up and has landfall on Sunday.  That's an enormous disparity in forward motion.  *sigh*

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Andrew Jr on the 12z Euro... similar trajectory and landfall.  Will be very curious to see the ensembles later.

No landfall through 144

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On a semi-side note I don't know why the system in the bay of Campeche isn't strong.  It is in a very low wind shear environment.  It will effect the sheer and the steering of Dorian.

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3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

No landfall through 144

It’s on top of Port St. Lucie area at hour 144.

North of Andrew.

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Looks like center scrapes the beaches of FL moving north. If you look at the H5 vorticity, you see a weak s/w move into NW FL. This is the weakness that causes a stall and a subsequent north drift. That option is certainly plausible.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like center scrapes the beaches of FL moving north. If you look at the H5 vorticity, you see a weak s/w move into NW FL. This is the weakness that causes a stall and a subsequent north drift. That option is certainly plausible.

I’m still wondering if it’s just typical ridge strength being underdone beyond 72-96 as we’ve seen so much last few years and as we get closer it’ll just push it further west or south faster 

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So UKMET comes in south and blasting right across Florida into Gulf. Euro now stalling and scraping the Florida coast. 

Awesome. Crystal clear. 

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Just now, msuwx said:

So UKMET comes in south and blasting right across Florida into Gulf. Euro now stalling and scraping the Florida coast. 

Awesome. Crystal clear. 

UK best so far

IMG_20190829_135514.jpg

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

So UKMET comes in south and blasting right across Florida into Gulf. Euro now stalling and scraping the Florida coast. 

Awesome. Crystal clear. 

Don't forget the GFS and its second landfall in NC.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Matthew redeaux on the OP 

Not really, it comes further inland into SE GA

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Dorian now forming a ring on infrared.  Much improved appearance from 12hrs ago.

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3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Euro hugging the coastline from Port St. Lucie to Daytona

Man that would be awful.  I remember at one point in 2017 the models had Irma going just inland all the way from Miami to central FL as a Cat 5.  Luckily that didn't happen and hopefully this doesn't either.

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Just now, BlizzardNole said:

Man that would be awful.  I remember at one point in 2017 the models had Irma going just inland all the way from Miami to central FL as a Cat 5.  Luckily that didn't happen and hopefully this doesn't either.

Most of the runs did for a solid 48-60 hours before shifting west.  Florida being a peninsula is always tricky when you’re talking about a landfall that is occurring on the southern tip or west coast.  Any slight turn in track can have a massive difference in landfall point 

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With a a sharp right turn, as long as the eyewall stays offshore, Florida would spared any major damage, like with Matthew. Most of Matthew's damage was from Flooding in the Carolinas.

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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m still wondering if it’s just typical ridge strength being underdone beyond 72-96 as we’ve seen so much last few years and as we get closer it’ll just push it further west or south faster 

Still would like some clarity on whether this is a real thing or more of an imagined thing.  Sometimes the mind plays tricks.

The 12z Euro scenario is almost like some weenie in the basement drawing up an outcome to inflict the most widespread damage to the eastern coast of Florida.  Would be difficult (not impossible) to get it to ride the coast that long... not even Matthew quite did it to the extent of what the 12z Euro depicts.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still would like some clarity on whether this is a real thing or more of an imagined thing.  Sometimes the mind plays tricks.

The 12z Euro scenario is almost like some weenie in the basement drawing up an outcome to inflict the most widespread damage to the eastern coast of Florida.  Would be difficult (not impossible) to get it to ride the coast that long... not even Matthew quite did it to the extent of what the 12z Euro depicts.

I dont know. I feel like scrapers are typically more bark than bite. 

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Don't forget Ike and Irma. Models showed that abrupt turn and ridge breakdown only to result in Cuban landfalls.

IRMA

mod1.jpg.78e22ab192f56a34aa3d377ad1f91975.jpg

IKE

mod3.thumb.png.f2d0cdc60315a761aa2ee93318e0ee00.png

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