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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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The IR simulation for the HWRF is probably the least accurate feature of the model, but it's interesting that it nearly doubles the size of Dorian over the next four days. That's a humongous eye.

hwrf_satIR_05L_17.png

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Oddly enough the ICON seems to behave the same with tropicals as it often does with winter storms.  It’s done a good job beyond 60-72 with Dorian so far but inside of that has tended to go off track and do odd things.  It’s probably been the 2nd best model behind the UKMET so far 

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Outflow to the South and Southwest of the system is looking better. Should help it consolidate and kick out any remaining dry air issues. I'm expecting to see a strengthening phase through the afternoon and especially overnight hours. Definitely curious to see what the 12z Euro shows though. Still a chance this misses wide right but that's looking less likely at this point unfortunately. 

What a disaster 12z GFS would be. The slow movement over FL....then getting back out over water and restrengthening before nailing the OBX and scraping up the rest of the East Coast....no thanks.  

Unknown.png

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol...thing misses Florida due to the north turn...stalls of the coast of the SE, and then gets swept out to sea by a trough...everybody spared and nothing happens to the East coast of U.S.   This wouldn't be to surprising to me.  

huh?  It clearly is over central florida at 112......then drifts over atlanta and whacks OBX on its way to Chatham.......its such an lol solution

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7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Outflow to the South and Southwest of the system is looking better. Should help it consolidate and kick out any remaining dry air issues. I'm expecting to see a strengthening phase through the afternoon and especially overnight hours. Definitely curious to see what the 12z Euro shows though. Still a chance this misses wide right but that's looking less likely at this point unfortunately. 

What a disaster 12z GFS would be. The slow movement over FL....then getting back out over water and restrengthening before nailing the OBX and scraping up the rest of the East Coast....no thanks.  

Unknown.png

That's a beauty of a pic. Looks like Dorian is about to go into RI mode.

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What misses the US?

It’s likely that if this misses Florida it’s an entire miss.  I glanced over the ensembles beyond day 7 and I don’t really see much argument for this to hit GA SC NC or LI/SNE if it misses Florida.  It’s probably 70-80% at the moment at least that if it misses Florida it’s a complete miss for the US 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s likely that if this misses Florida it’s an entire miss.  I glanced over the ensembles beyond day 7 and I don’t really see much argument for this to hit GA SC NC or LI/SNE if it misses Florida.  It’s probably 70-80% at the moment at least that if it misses Florida it’s a complete miss for the US 

That was my exact Point.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was my exact Point.

I guess once again though the question would be is the trof in the ensembles beyond day 7 too weak and the ridge not strong enough but I’m just taking them verbatim  

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I noticed that the 12z HWRF slows down or even slightly weakens Dorian some in the 36-48hr time frame. After looking at the sounding, you can see it might have some dry air issues that the model is picking up on.

GPsronw.png

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

This seems much to big of a shift.  Comparing hour 30 at 6z to hour 24 at 12z?  Almost 4 degree of north lat shift within a day?

That’s probably because it didn’t happen

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Not directly related but the Eastern half of PR is getting hammered right now with convection off the Southerly flow from Dorian. Some areas are experiencing 2-3" per hour rates and with the mountains flash flooding and mud slides are going to be a concern. 

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The HMON tracks directly across the Everglades and into the Gulf. If that track verified, I doubt it would weaken much.

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just messing around Anthony...don't everyone get in an uproar.....It'll hit somebody somewhere I'm sure on the east coast.  

 

My only point was that it wouldn't surprise me if the Cane missed the east coast completely....we've seen it before.    Carry on.

I would be very suprised.

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7 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Also get down to 919 mb 

And 147.9 knots. Are these speeds realistic?

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156 is Low end Cat 5 (if there is such a thing)  doesn't really matter, a hit by a Cat 5 is a catastrophic hit regardless of low end/high end

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Lets not forget that this is the HMON.  If i had a dime for every time HMON obliterated Miami with a Cat 5 hurricane, I'd have like 20 or so dimes by now.

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