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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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10 hours ago, OhioWX said:

Hi Josh,

How ya doing? I'm thrilled you were able to make it through that storm intact and the footage and data you've received in absolutely jaw dropping. Anyways, as someone who fully experienced the aftermath of Dorian, I was curious about your take on the official death toll in the Bahamas. If that's a sensitive subject for you, I apologize and please feel free to disregard my comment.

Reports from all across the Abaco Islands are very disheartening and seem to suggest a much higher death toll than the current 53 confirmed fatalities. I'm very concerned that this has turned into a Maria like situation where we won't know (or may never know) the true cost of Dorian for many, many months to come. This topic honestly has gotten under my skin recently and I would love to hear your input. Thanks! 

Hey, thanks man-- appreciate it. The death toll does sound way too low to me based on what I experienced (whole neighborhoods flattened and the stench of death in the air) and heard from folks I was talking to while there (many reports of bodies everywhere). I won't hazard a guess-- this just isn't my area of expertise-- but I would've guessed a death toll well into the hundreds or even four figures. The destruction is at the level of Super Typhoon HAIYAN. Whereas HAIYAN directly struck a large city (Tacloban City - pop. ~220K), DORIAN struck a small town (Marsh Harbour - pop. ~6K), so I highly doubt we'll see a HAIYAN-like death toll (6K - 10K) in DORIAN-- but I know in my heart it is way beyond that 53 figure.

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56 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

70 knots. It really fell apart.

Wow!  All that wind must have turned to rain, as there were some spectacular reports of total rainfall, and of damage in Honduras.   Thanks.

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

Wow!  All that wind must have turned to rain, as there were some spectacular reports of total rainfall, and of damage in Honduras.   Thanks.

As far as wind damage is concerned, the small Island of Guanaja (offshore to the N of Honduras) were subjected to major hurricane-force winds for 72 hours and max winds near Cat 5 intensity.  

The center of Mitch stalled and meandered near the Island for three days while it was at its max intensity of 155 kt/180 mph MSW.  

As a result, virtually the entire mangrove forest and pine trees were destroyed on the island.  Even a decade later, evidence of Mitch's wrath was still evident with countless trees debarked. 

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For those of you who are into Hurricane DORIAN... 

Last week, I presented my firsthand, Ground Zero DORIAN experience to a packed ballroom at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City, Utah. The crowd seemed riveted as I took them through the inner core of the strongest hurricane landfall* in the history of North America. The huge-ass screens and top-of-the-line sound system definitely helped me tell the story and bring the audience into the moment.

Couldn't get your butt to Utah last week? Here are other venues where you can catch this experience over the coming months (along with an admittedly theatrical promotional poster-- have fun, haters :D).

NWA Severe Storms & Doppler Radar Conference: https://bit.ly/2Psdep3

National Tropical Weather Conference: https://bit.ly/2E0jwXD

National Hurricane Conference: https://bit.ly/2E2HAsW

SeCAPS – University of South Alabama: https://bit.ly/2RCq5I6

Details are coming soon Re: the Texas show, which will be in the Corpus Christi area 06-07 May.

____

* The current intensity estimate (160 knots) ties DORIAN with the 1935 Labor Day Storm as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in North America. If it's bumped down to 155 knots in postanalysis, it'll be tied with IRMA for No. 2.

iCyclone-Still1-TW_dark_2020speaking.png

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For those of you who are into Hurricane DORIAN... 

Last week, I presented my firsthand, Ground Zero DORIAN experience to a packed ballroom at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City, Utah. The crowd seemed riveted as I took them through the inner core of the strongest hurricane landfall* in the history of North America. The huge-ass screens and top-of-the-line sound system definitely helped me tell the story and bring the audience into the moment.

Couldn't get your butt to Utah last week? Here are other venues where you can catch this experience over the coming months (along with an admittedly theatrical promotional poster-- have fun, haters ).

NWA Severe Storms & Doppler Radar Conference: https://bit.ly/2Psdep3
National Tropical Weather Conference: https://bit.ly/2E0jwXD
National Hurricane Conference: https://bit.ly/2E2HAsW
SeCAPS – University of South Alabama: https://bit.ly/2RCq5I6
Details are coming soon Re: the Texas show, which will be in the Corpus Christi area 06-07 May.
____
* The current intensity estimate (160 knots) ties DORIAN with the 1935 Labor Day Storm as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in North America. If it's bumped down to 155 knots in postanalysis, it'll be tied with IRMA for No. 2.
iCyclone-Still1-TW_dark_2020speaking.thumb.png.af12dd864e6dc0c8131066274f550aac.png
Think it will be bumped up or down? Those dropscondes we're showing 230+mph winds aloft

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Think it will be bumped up or down? Those dropscondes we're showing 230+mph winds aloft

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

It's hard to say. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a better chance of them bumping it down 5 knots, like they did with IRMA, because they feel the SFMR data are too "hot." Of course I'm very curious. We'll know soon.

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On 2/18/2020 at 3:11 AM, HurricaneJosh said:

It's hard to say. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a better chance of them bumping it down 5 knots, like they did with IRMA, because they feel the SFMR data are too "hot." Of course I'm very curious. We'll know soon.

I'm in total agreement, Josh!  The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes.

It really comes down to the NHC's consensus on their interpretation of the SFMR measurements.  If it were my call, I'd set the estimated MSW at 155 kt.  The 700 mb FLWs (161 kt vs 164 kt) and minimum central pressures (910 mb vs 914 mb) were almost identical.  Dorian's SFMR readings exceeded that of Irma's, while the satellite estimates were much higher with Irma.

In the end, I anticipate the NHC will either retain the operational 160 kt estimate or reduce it slightly to 155 kt.  

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On 2/27/2020 at 10:45 PM, ncforecaster89 said:

I'm in total agreement, Josh!  The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes.

It really comes down to the NHC's consensus on their interpretation of the SFMR measurements.  If it were my call, I'd set the estimated MSW at 155 kt.  The 700 mb FLWs (161 kt vs 164 kt) and minimum central pressures (910 mb vs 914 mb) were almost identical.  Dorian's SFMR readings exceeded that of Irma's, while the satellite estimates were much higher with Irma.

In the end, I anticipate the NHC will either retain the operational 160 kt estimate or reduce it slightly to 155 kt.  

Agreed. I am 99% sure it will be one of those two values. I can't see it being higher or lower.

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6 hours ago, Calderon said:

Official report is out, MSW are 160kt and min pressure of 910mb, both at landfall in the Abacos at Elbow Cay.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf

Yep. This is unlike Hurricane IRMA, for which peak intensity was bumped down slightly (to 155 knots) in postanalysis. I notice they did bump down the Grand Bahama landfall to 155 knots, so only the Abaco Islands got it at the peak intensity of 160 knots.

As with Hurricane MICHAEL, the DORIAN report notes further research on SFMR data could cause future adjustment to peak intensity—but for now, DORIAN's record stands: it's tied with the Labor Day Storm of 1935 as the strongest landfalling hurricane in North America.

Cat5Landfalls.png

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