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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t think Andrew had winds on Dorians level based on damage. There were a ton of cheaply constructed subdivisions and trailer parks In that part of Florida at the time. We didn’t have anything like that in Dorian. The Bahamas are a very economically conflicted place. While of course home to many poor, they also contain allot of rich people’s second homes or retirement dream homes which are built to the highest standards. They gave the illusion that damage was less severe. 

Good points.   Sure Dorian gets the nod with regard to Pressure and that it stalled too...

But I think we are splitting hairs....catastrophic destruction in both places...is well, Catastrophic.  Andrew had gusts over 200 for sure.  So did Dorian.  200 plus is just insane, no matter if it's 205 or 220.  

 

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11 hours ago, Windspeed said:
11 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:
I agree with your general point-- that typhoon winds actually don't get any stronger than the winds in hurricanes around N America. (See my previous point, above.)
By the way, PATRICIA's official peak was 185 knots-- not 175. Yes, it was incredible.

Ooops, though even @ 175 kts Pat would have held the record regardless. Jeez 185 kts sustained is just insane. Hell, Dorian's 160 kts is insane. As for the school, I'm glad you moved man. Don't second guess safety when all hell is breaking lose. If you go against your gut in situations as dangerous as that, you may end up critically injured or dead. You made the right choice.

Thanks. I've obsessed over it a little, but I agree it was the right thing to do.

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Extraordinary work and courage

Hey, thanks! I really appreciate it.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t think Andrew had winds on Dorians level based on damage. There were a ton of cheaply constructed subdivisions and trailer parks In that part of Florida at the time. We didn’t have anything like that in Dorian. The Bahamas are a very economically conflicted place. While of course home to many poor, they also contain allot of rich people’s second homes or retirement dream homes which are built to the highest standards. They gave the illusion that damage was less severe. 

It's a very good point you make-- and it's why you can't just visually compare damage pics between hurricanes-- because building quality is so different from region to region. And, yes, the Bahamas have very strict codes, so to see most houses and buildings having major damage after DORIAN was something.

TO ANDREW's defense... One thing that impresses me about it was the tree damage. The totally shredded and denuded trees are part of what make the aftermath photos look so hardcore.

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If this has been posted sorry and if it should be in the banter thread move it.  I've seen a lot of HH videos and half way through this one looks like the first time, at least for me, they seem to have caught a meso vortex up close, especially considering it's Kermit and they may have been coming through around 5k feet, can't say for sure.  I think it's one of the best eyewall videos I've seen from a structure standpoint.

 

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I decided to nerd out and list all known Category-5 hurricane landfalls in N America. Events are listed by windspeed, then central pressure, then date. This list puts Hurricane DORIAN in perspective and shows how cataclysmic it was—tied for 1st place as strongest landfalling hurricane. Wow! (I feel a weird honor to have been inside that eye.)

The list gives the false impression that Cat-5 landfalls are a modern phenomenon. Nope. Undoubtedly there were more Cat-5 landfalls in earlier decades that can't be properly categorized because there aren't enough data.

Notice that all Cat-5 landfalls in N America have been on the Atlantic side. There's no known instance of a Cat 5 striking N America from the Pacific. The strongest known landfall on that side is PATRICIA 2015, which struck Mexico as a high-end Cat 4, with winds of 130 knots (150 mph).

Cat5Landfalls.png

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16 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

I decided to nerd out and list all known Category-5 hurricane landfalls in N America. Events are listed by windspeed, then central pressure, then date. This list puts Hurricane DORIAN in perspective and shows how cataclysmic it was—tied for 1st place as strongest landfalling hurricane. Wow! (I feel a weird honor to have been inside that eye.)

The list gives the false impression that Cat-5 landfalls are a modern phenomenon. Nope. Undoubtedly there were more Cat-5 landfalls in earlier decades that can't be properly categorized because there aren't enough data.

Notice that all Cat-5 landfalls in N America have been on the Atlantic side. There's no known instance of a Cat 5 striking N America from the Pacific. The strongest known landfall on that side is PATRICIA 2015, which struck Mexico as a high-end Cat 4, with winds of 130 knots (150 mph).

Cat5Landfalls.png

Wasn't Dean your first Cat 5 I remember that thread back on Eastern when you chased it....was that really 12 years ago already :yikes:....

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23 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Wasn't Dean your first Cat 5 I remember that thread back on Eastern when you chased it....was that really 12 years ago already :yikes:....

You are right-- DEAN was the first of my five Cat 5s! I lost my Cat-5 "virginity" to that one. :D I just grazed the S eyewall, but it was just enough to give me a taste of that awesome power. I was scared but I was so hooked.

God. Twelve years ago, but it seems like a lifetime. I'm a totally different person-- and different chaserdude-- now.

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25 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

You are right-- DEAN was the first of my five Cat 5s! I lost my Cat-5 "virginity" to that one. :D I just grazed the S eyewall, but it was just enough to give me a taste of that awesome power. I was scared but I was so hooked.

God. Twelve years ago, but it seems like a lifetime. I'm a totally different person-- and different chaserdude-- now.

What was the one with that video of the lady on the mattress in water and you pushing?

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32 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

What was the one with that video of the lady on the mattress in water and you pushing?

That was a different Cat 5, Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines!

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Thanks for all the extra info posted here Josh. I really enjoyed your video. Even my girlfriend was glued to the screen watching and she typically couldn't care less about me nerding out on weather haha. 

Quick reminder to everyone that Jim Edds footage is airing on the Weather Channel at 7:30 EST in a 30 minute episode.

 

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20 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

That was a different Cat 5, Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines!

At ground zero, which was worse in terms of damage? Haiyan or Dorian? 

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Look forward to the results of the ongoing research by the NHC on the reliability of SFMR in high-end hurricanes (Cat 4-5).  

The past three seasons, the NHC has based the estimated intensity of Irma, Maria, Jose, Michael, and Dorian on a blend between the highest SFMR and FLW.  

In the case of Dorian, at peak intensity, that was a blend of 177 kt SFMR and 161 kt 700 mb wind (equivalent to a 10 m wind at the surface).

Based on the findings of said research, Dorian's max intensity could be reanalyzed as low as 145 kt (FLW alone) to as high as 175 kt (SFMR if valid).  Even if SFMR is deemed significantly unreliable, can't see a revised intensity below 150 kt.  

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1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Look forward to the results of the ongoing research by the NHC on the reliability of SFMR in high-end hurricanes (Cat 4-5).  

The past three seasons, the NHC has based the estimated intensity of Irma, Maria, Jose, Michael, and Dorian on a blend between the highest SFMR and FLW.  

In the case of Dorian, at peak intensity, that was a blend of 177 kt SFMR and 161 kt 700 mb wind (equivalent to a 10 m wind at the surface).

Based on the findings of said research, Dorian's max intensity could be reanalyzed as low as 145 kt (FLW alone) to as high as 175 kt (SFMR if valid).  Even if SFMR is deemed significantly unreliable, can't see a revised intensity below 150 kt.  

if SFMR is unreliable your beloved michael is a cat 4

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4 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

Thanks for all the extra info posted here Josh. I really enjoyed your video. Even my girlfriend was glued to the screen watching and she typically couldn't care less about me nerding out on weather haha. 
 

Wow, that is a huge compliment-- when non-weather-nerds dig my footage. So, thank you for very much for letting me know! And please tell your girlfriend Hurricane Man is glad she was so riveted! B)

4 hours ago, Bob's Burgers said:

At ground zero, which was worse in terms of damage? Haiyan or Dorian? 

It's a great question but a tough one, because the terrains and building standards in both places are so different. I feel like I can't answer. Both were truly great cyclones, and both were way beyond anything else I've observed.

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

if SFMR is unreliable your beloved michael is a cat 4

Very true. Live by SFMR, die by SFMR. If new research shows that the SFMR data are generally too "hot," a few big-name hurricanes are gonna get a rude awakening (i.e., downgrades) in reanalysis.

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I’ve let 5 “civilian” non weather nuts look at the footage; the part facing the lot and little tree in middle

All 5 said one same thing”When I thought the winds could not get worse...they did”. One could not finish. Too powerful scary.

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I’ve let 5 “civilian” non weather nuts look at the footage; the part facing the lot and little tree in middle

All 5 said one same thing”When I thought the winds could not get worse...they did”. One could not finish. Too powerful scary.

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18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve let 5 “civilian” non weather nuts look at the footage; the part facing the lot and little tree in middle

All 5 said one same thing”When I thought the winds could not get worse...they did”. One could not finish. Too powerful scary.

Wow, that is really interesting to hear the perspective of non-weather-nerds. But, yeah, I personally found the winds scary-- they were way beyond anything I've seen before. Just nuts.

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3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

if SFMR is unreliable your beloved michael is a cat 4

Forgive me for thinking this was a thread to discuss Dorian and correspondingly, also the objective scientific data relating to its intensity and effects.

May be difficult for you or some others to comprehend, but my fascination with hurricanes doesn't carry an emotional attachment.  For those whom it might, that should have absolutely no influence on the evaluation of any wholly objective data pertaining to them.  

All that aside, like Dorian...the data clearly shows that Michael was at least a 140 kt Cat 5 at maximum intensity, even without considering the SFMR measurements.  Based on all the data detailed in the TCR by the NHC, the 140 kt estimate could be deemed a conservative one.  Not that I'd argue for anything greater than 145 kt without verification of the SFMR reliability.   

Back to the case of Dorian,  the FLW data alone would equate to 145 kt.  Of course, one should take into consideration other meterological factors and it's highly unlikely the NHC would assign an intensity below 150 kt... even without any consideration of the SFMR.  I was simply making an observation and certainly not implying Michael's max intensity was on par with that of Dorian.  

Even without the SFMR, the other data argues for an intensity no less than 155 kt. (in my opinion).

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2 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Very true. Live by SFMR, die by SFMR. If new research shows that the SFMR data are generally too "hot," a few big-name hurricanes are gonna get a rude awakening (i.e., downgrades) in reanalysis.

Actually, that's not the case with Michael.  Its Cat 5 designation isn't totally reliant on the SFMR data...nor is Dorian's, obviously. 

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My opinion? Dorian was a straight-up monster. I do not buy the "gust" of 177 SFMR, I believe that was sustained due to the fact those winds were recorded over *several hours* with multiple passes.

 

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually, that's not the case with Michael.  Its Cat 5 designation isn't totally reliant on the SFMR data...nor is Dorian's, obviously. 

I wasn't talking specifically about MICHAEL (your favorite cyclone ever :D), but this bit from the MICHAEL TCR explicitly ties a future intensity reassessment to the SFMR research findings: "It should be noted that future revisions to the Florida landfall intensity are possible, as additional re-assessment is expected once the research on the reliability of the SFMR at these high wind speeds is complete."

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4 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

I wasn't talking specifically about MICHAEL (your favorite cyclone ever :D), but this bit from the MICHAEL TCR explicitly ties a future intensity reassessment to the SFMR research findings: "It should be noted that future revisions to the Florida landfall intensity are possible, as additional re-assessment is expected once the research on the reliability of the SFMR at these high wind speeds is complete."

Your specific response to his comment about Michael (and only Michael) being reassessed as a Cat 4 was "very true." 

Is it possible for you to have a reasonable scientific discussion without the need to resort to unmerited personal jabs (I.e., "your favorite cyclone ever").  Obviously, that comment has no relevancy, whatsoever, to the conversation.  You do it so frequently that it appears the intention might be to deflect and attempt to discredit the objective points discussed with whom you might disagree.  

Anyway, those future revisions to the Florida intensity could be an upward adjustment as the SFMR (alone) argues for a 150 kt estimate.  None of the other collective data suggests a decrease in the current estimate contained in the TCR.  As mentioned previously, one could reasonably argue that the aforementioned 140 kt estimate is more on the conservative side, even excluding the SFMR data.  

To clarify, I don't think the current operational estimate of 160 kt is unwarranted for Dorian.  Although, I'd consider it a little too generous if the SFMR measurements are discounted, entirely.  

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1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Your specific response to his comment about Michael (and only Michael) being reassessed as a Cat 4 was "very true." 

Is it possible for you to have a reasonable scientific discussion without the need to resort to unmerited personal jabs (I.e., "your favorite cyclone ever").  Obviously, that comment has no relevancy, whatsoever, to the conversation.  You do it so frequently that it appears the intention might be to deflect and attempt to discredit the objective points discussed with whom you might disagree.  

Anyway, those future revisions to the Florida intensity could be an upward adjustment as the SFMR (alone) argues for a 150 kt estimate.  None of the other collective data suggests a decrease in the current estimate contained in the TCR.  As mentioned previously, one could reasonably argue that the aforementioned 140 kt estimate is more on the conservative side, even excluding the SFMR data.  

To clarify, I don't think the current operational estimate of 160 kt is unwarranted for Dorian.  Although, I'd consider it a little too generous if the SFMR measurements are discounted, entirely.  

Sorry this conversation is irritating you. I don't see how it was a jab to observe you're into a certain cyclone. I'm really, really into DORIAN-- like, I'm obsessed with it and will be for years to come. And if someone pointed that out, I'd say, "F*ck yeah, I am."

Anyhoo, at some point they'll reassess MICHAEL. I was never personally totally sold on the Cat-5 thing, but as always, I accept the NHC verdict as "the word," even on the rare occasions when I personally feel somewhat differently (examples: ODILE 2014 and CAMILLE 1969). And, anyhoo, most of the time I'm totally with them, even with big postanalysis changes (examples: KATRINA 2005, PATRICIA 2015).

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1 hour ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Sorry this conversation is irritating you. I don't see how it was a jab to observe you're into a certain cyclone. I'm really, really into DORIAN-- like, I'm obsessed with it and will be for years to come. And if someone pointed that out, I'd say, "F*ck yeah, I am."

Anyhoo, at some point they'll reassess MICHAEL. I was never personally totally sold on the Cat-5 thing, but as always, I accept the NHC verdict as "the word," even on the rare occasions when I personally feel somewhat differently (examples: ODILE 2014 and CAMILLE 1969). And, anyhoo, most of the time I'm totally with them, even with big postanalysis changes (examples: KATRINA 2005, PATRICIA 2015).

As I've stated repeatedly, I'm genuinely excited for you to have gotten into the eye and core of hurricane Dorian.  It's a huge accomplishment from a chase perspective and you have every reason to be proud of it.

It's ok we might disagree on Michael's max intensity at landfall.  Even though I don't personally understand it, based on the objective data, I no less respect your opinion.

Given your availability and interest in chasing outside the continental U.S., it's only a matter of time before you document another Cat 5 from its core.  The same applies to other chasers such as Jim Edds and James Reynolds.  Consequently, it's most certainly conceivable that you may document a TC even more intense than Dorian.  If so, I will be truly happy for you! :)

Although I'm aware of a couple of other chasers who are genuinely envious of others chase success, that's not the case with me.  I want to see video of the greatest impact, regardless, and since I'm unable to chase outside of the U.S. (wife isn't cool with it), why would I be jealous that I wasn't the one who obtained it?  

Most importantly, I'm thankful you survived those genuine Cat 5 conditions from Dorian without harm.  The fact you collected incredible data and awesome video is the cherry on top, so to speak!

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Hi Josh,

How ya doing? I'm thrilled you were able to make it through that storm intact and the footage and data you've received in absolutely jaw dropping. Anyways, as someone who fully experienced the aftermath of Dorian, I was curious about your take on the official death toll in the Bahamas. If that's a sensitive subject for you, I apologize and please feel free to disregard my comment.

Reports from all across the Abaco Islands are very disheartening and seem to suggest a much higher death toll than the current 53 confirmed fatalities. I'm very concerned that this has turned into a Maria like situation where we won't know (or may never know) the true cost of Dorian for many, many months to come. This topic honestly has gotten under my skin recently and I would love to hear your input. Thanks! 

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12 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

As I've stated repeatedly, I'm genuinely excited for you to have gotten into the eye and core of hurricane Dorian.  It's a huge accomplishment from a chase perspective and you have every reason to be proud of it.

It's ok we might disagree on Michael's max intensity at landfall.  Even though I don't personally understand it, based on the objective data, I no less respect your opinion.

Given your availability and interest in chasing outside the continental U.S., it's only a matter of time before you document another Cat 5 from its core.  The same applies to other chasers such as Jim Edds and James Reynolds.  Consequently, it's most certainly conceivable that you may document a TC even more intense than Dorian.  If so, I will be truly happy for you! :)

Although I'm aware of a couple of other chasers who are genuinely envious of others chase success, that's not the case with me.  I want to see video of the greatest impact, regardless, and since I'm unable to chase outside of the U.S. (wife isn't cool with it), why would I be jealous that I wasn't the one who obtained it?  

Most importantly, I'm thankful you survived those genuine Cat 5 conditions from Dorian without harm.  The fact you collected incredible data and awesome video is the cherry on top, so to speak!

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate it. Have a good night.

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13 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

Thanks for all the extra info posted here Josh. I really enjoyed your video. Even my girlfriend was glued to the screen watching and she typically couldn't care less about me nerding out on weather haha. 

Quick reminder to everyone that Jim Edds footage is airing on the Weather Channel at 7:30 EST in a 30 minute episode.

 

Ahh damn it. I missed it. Is it online anywhere?

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On ‎9‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 9:27 PM, HurricaneJosh said:

I decided to nerd out and list all known Category-5 hurricane landfalls in N America. Events are listed by windspeed, then central pressure, then date. This list puts Hurricane DORIAN in perspective and shows how cataclysmic it was—tied for 1st place as strongest landfalling hurricane. Wow! (I feel a weird honor to have been inside that eye.)

What was the landfall intensity of Mitch?  IIRC, it was at 155 kt shortly before coming ashore.

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