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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lets hope not. Believe intense pressure drops cause air pain. Funny story I watched the video on my TV with surround sound cranked. At one point all my dogs started howling and barking.  I paused the video to investigate outside and then let them out .  It wasn't until I watched it again on my IPAD did I understand as they howled again. They were hearing something in your video we couldn't.  The timing was exactly at your peak winds. Weird

Why should the pressure drop be any more painful than riding up an elevator or driving up a mountain?

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10 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Hey, thanks! Yeah, when we saw all those papers flying, we were kind of alarmed, because we took that as a sign that some part of the building had broken open. The flying debris in this thing was crazy-- really, really scary. It was way beyond anything I've seen in previous storms, including MICHAEL. That's not to take away from MICHAEL, but it just didn't hold a candle to this beast.

You really sounded pretty calm in the video. I bet on the inside less so. Was this the most scared for your life you've been during a chase? I was also blown away by how quick things ramped up. It really was like a tornado parked in one spot.

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13 minutes ago, salbers said:

Why should the pressure drop be any more painful than riding up an elevator or driving up a mountain?

It doesn't change that gradually. When you're in a violent (Cat-4/5) hurricane, the peak gusts cause very sudden changes that hurt. It is not as mellow as going up an elevator.

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11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

You really sounded pretty calm in the video. I bet on the inside less so. Was this the most scared for your life you've been during a chase? I was also blown away by how quick things ramped up. It really was like a tornado parked in one spot.

Thanks very much! I was very concerned, but trying to act mellow so as not to freak out the people around me. I even lied at one point, saying I was "completely confident" that we were going to be fine, when I was actually worried about the roof ripping off or those shutters blowing in. Thank God the room stayed intact. And, yeah, this eyewall was just nuts. It was hard to capture it on camera because everything just kind of turned white. It was nuts-- just nuts.

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16 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thanks very much! I was very concerned, but trying to act mellow so as not to freak out the people around me. I even lied at one point, saying I was "completely confident" that we were going to be fine, when I was actually worried about the roof ripping off or those shutters blowing in. Thank God the room stayed intact. And, yeah, this eyewall was just nuts. It was hard to capture it on camera because everything just kind of turned white. It was nuts-- just nuts.

I think you said it better in the vid, "this is fukin nutz"

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34 minutes ago, salbers said:

Why should the pressure drop be any more painful than riding up an elevator or driving up a mountain?

Extremely rapid pressure drops and fluctuations When the barometric pressure drops rapidly, that means the pressure outside your ears goes down before the pressure inside your ears can acclimate. ... The result is discomfort, fullness and pressure along with the potential of other unpleasant symptoms such as tinnitus and vertigo.

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2 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Where did you get your engineering and meteorology degrees?

Got meteorology degree from NCSU (NC State University) in 1992.  Thanks for asking.  Also was a student intern at the NHC under the mentorship of the late Robert (Bob) Case.  Never got a second degree in engineering nor did I desire one.  It was all about working for the NHC one day.

Spent less than two years working in the field before I realized I didn't enjoy working a desk job and gave up on that original dream job.  I wanted to actually be free to chase/intercept hurricanes.  So, no regrets here.

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2 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

What I find fascinating here are all the viewpoints that you ascribe to me that I never expressed. It's like you're debating an imagined version of me.

I appreciate your deep and ongoing interest in my work. Have a great night. :)

Great job of deflection.

So, do you think Marsh Harbor experienced 160 kt maximum sustained winds?  

Do you think the winds Michael delivered to Panama City and/or Callaway were equal to those I witnessed in Mexico Beach?

It seems you might be confusing my genuine interest in an accurate estimation of the peak winds at a given location to be somehow relevant to who was the chaser that captured those winds on film.  

No offense but I don't have a "deep and ongoing interest" in your work...any more than that of any other chaser.  For me, I mainly want to be in the position of the most intense winds to show their immense power on video to others in hopes they will evacuate.  The second goal is to capture data.  That's followed by the desire to simply experience the storm, itself.  And, lastly, help residents recover from the aftermath by devoting my own time and physical labor.  It's all about the storm.  It's not about the chaser (i.e., myself).

To reiterate, it's ALL about the science to me and its effects on people.  

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Extremely rapid pressure drops and fluctuations When the barometric pressure drops rapidly, that means the pressure outside your ears goes down before the pressure inside your ears can acclimate. ... The result is discomfort, fullness and pressure along with the potential of other unpleasant symptoms such as tinnitus and vertigo.

Excellent explanation and response to that question.  

In my case, I know I damaged my hearing somewhat by exposing myself to the full effect of Cat 5 winds in Michael.  The intense pain I felt is truly indescribable and the thing I will always remember most are far as what I personally experienced aside from the incredible devastation and the hardship brought to the residents in the area.  It wasn't simply just the rapid pressure drop.  

As a result, my wife is still pissed as she noticed the difference in my hearing immediately thereafter and it continues to this day.  When I intercept the next Cat 5, I will use ear plugs to mitigate the deafening roar of the wind.   

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15 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Great job of deflection.

So, do you think Marsh Harbor experienced 160 kt maximum sustained winds?  

Do you think the winds Michael delivered to Panama City and/or Callaway were equal to those I witnessed in Mexico Beach?

It seems you might be confusing my genuine interest in an accurate estimation of the peak winds at a given location to be somehow relative to who was the chaser that captured those winds on film.  

No offense but I don't have a "deep and ongoing interest" in your work...any more than that of any other chaser.  For me, I mainly want to be in the position of the most intense winds to show their immense power on video to others in hopes they will evacuate.  The second goal is to capture data.  That's followed by the desire to simply experience the storm, itself.  And, lastly, help residents recover from the aftermath by devoting my own time and physical labor.  It's all about the storm.  It's not about the chaser (i.e., myself).

To reiterate, it's ALL about the science to me and its effects on people.  

I appreciate your interest in my work. Have a good night, Tony. :)

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Great to see you post @HurricaneJosh

I probably caught the chasing bug a little too far into my professional career to make much out of it, but every time I’m out I’m even more appreciative of the work you and others do.

Congratulations on a safe and successful chase and thank you for the contributions you make to the field. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Great to see you post @HurricaneJosh

I probably caught the chasing bug a little too far into my professional career to make much out of it, but every time I’m out I’m even more appreciative of the work you and others do.

Congratulations on a safe and successful chase and thank you for the contributions you make to the field. 

Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. I was excited about the video and data I collected on this chase, and I am grateful to return in one piece.

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6 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. I was excited about the video and data I collected on this chase, and I am grateful to return in one piece.

Amazing video.  Also, really enjoying what I have seen of your series.  Great stuff.

on yet another side note, I found out just recently that my brother follows you on social and I never knew it.  We were discussing the Bahamas and I mentioned you and he’s like, “You follow Josh?”   I’m like, since well before Twitter...lol.  Glad you are well

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Amazing video.  Also, really enjoying what I have seen of your series.  Great stuff.

on yet another side note, I found out just recently that my brother follows you on social and I never knew it.  We were discussing the Bahamas and I mentioned you and he’s like, “You follow Josh?”   I’m like, since well before Twitter...lol.  Glad you are well

Oh, wow! That is so funny. Is your brother a weather nerd, too-- or just like a general-news dude?

Thank you so much for watching my video-- I was worried it was too long, but I wanted to really bring the viewer through the whole experience. And I am delighted you like my show! That is great to hear. I appreciate the feedback!

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Oh, wow! That is so funny. Is your brother a weather nerd, too-- or just like a general-news dude?

Thank you so much for watching my video-- I was worried it was too long, but I wanted to really bring the viewer through the whole experience. And I am delighted you like my show! That is great to hear. I appreciate the feedback!

He isn’t into the weather like most of the folks on this board, but follows marine weather a bit, especially in the Florida/Bahamas/Eastern Caribbean, despite living in Mass.   He has considered moving to Florida (avid  saltwater fisherman) and now your videos are giving him second thoughts...  We were in the Bahamas in early August but not at Great Abaco     We are donating what we can to relief there.

And get a danged satellite phone man!

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

He isn’t into the weather like most of the folks on this board, but follows marine weather a bit, especially in the Florida/Bahamas/Eastern Caribbean, despite living in Mass.   He has considered moving to Florida (avid  saltwater fisherman) and now your videos are giving him second thoughts...  We were in the Bahamas in early August but not at Great Abaco     We are donating what we can to relief there.

And get a danged satellite phone man!

I've taken a lot of heat from fans Re: the whole satellite-phone thing, so I will get one, finally. (I've been lazy about that.)

Sorry if my videos have created fear! That's cool that you guys are donating. Nice!

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1 minute ago, HurricaneJosh said:

I've taken a lot of heat from fans Re: the whole satellite-phone thing, so I will get one, finally. (I've been lazy about that.)

People thought you were sh sh sh shark food

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Josh great work as always.  would you estimate that you didnt start seeing hurricane force winds until the eyewall started moving in?  seems from the video it went from 0 to 100 with nothing in between

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19 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Wow! Haven't talked to you forever. Thanks so much-- I appreciate it. It's nice to hear from you. I hope you're well.

Let’s throw a Josh Isnt Dead party in DC. Say when!!

You are so  skilled but I thought bad fortune had arrived.

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Just now, Normandy said:

Josh great work as always.  would you estimate that you didnt start seeing hurricane force winds until the eyewall started moving in?  seems from the video it went from 0 to 100 with nothing in between

Yeah, I would say that's correct. I tend to estimate on the conservative side, but I don't feel I had a true 65-knot sustained wind until I was in that core. Based on my video footage, I estimate the core reached my location at about 11:25 am. (I put timestamps on the video, so you can see how conditions progress over time, and how they correlate with the pressure data.)

Thanks for the kinds words. Nice to hear from you after all this time.

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8 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Lol. I saw. Rumors of my demise were greatly exaggerated. Those damn supermarket tabloids! :D

To be honest I was one of those that was fearing the worst. The surge alone was so jaw dropping that the fear was could you find high enough ground. Of course you had and were safe but when the stories of 20+ foot surges and the videos of it started coming out the concern was real. 

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9 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Great job of deflection.

So, do you think Marsh Harbor experienced 160 kt maximum sustained winds?  

Do you think the winds Michael delivered to Panama City and/or Callaway were equal to those I witnessed in Mexico Beach?

It seems you might be confusing my genuine interest in an accurate estimation of the peak winds at a given location to be somehow relevant to who was the chaser that captured those winds on film.  

No offense but I don't have a "deep and ongoing interest" in your work...any more than that of any other chaser.  For me, I mainly want to be in the position of the most intense winds to show their immense power on video to others in hopes they will evacuate.  The second goal is to capture data.  That's followed by the desire to simply experience the storm, itself.  And, lastly, help residents recover from the aftermath by devoting my own time and physical labor.  It's all about the storm.  It's not about the chaser (i.e., myself).

To reiterate, it's ALL about the science to me and its effects on people.  

Something that's never shown as it is happening (and yet has incredible impact on the overall experience of being through this) is real time readings of atmospheric pressure.  An altimeter is a good way to show this and its output could be converted to millibars, hpa, et al and overlayed on the video.  If time permits, a few strain gauges at various places indoors to show flexing of the building structure too.  In lesser storms where covering windows isn't absolutely necessary it's easy to observe pane deflection in gusts just by observing a reflection of an object indoors.  You would be amazed how much a sturdy double pane patio door deflects during severe winds ~65mph, for example.  I have surveillance cameras in our barn.  These are attached to a truss and during wind storms the dust sets them off (motion trigger) and if I notice some movement of things in the frame that are stationary which tells me the structure is moving slightly due to the wind pressure.  We've always used P=0.00256*V² to find actual wind pressure in pounds/sq foot.  Of course with sloped roofs and objects that are not perfectly perpendicular to the wind it's more complex.  But it gives an idea of the incredible forces above ground structures must endure to survive devastating wind events. 

Extreme wind events cause whistling and howling because structures aren't airtight.  Wooden framed buildings creak and groan as well.  When they give under load it's a good thing as one can have cue to how much stress its under.  Of course a debris strike (large object like a tree!) changes all that and comes without warning.  In this day and age of cell phones and compact technology we can capture things with relative ease like never before.  The natural instinct to get drawn in also presents a danger as one may be distracted of real impending danger and by time they realize it their reaction may come too late.  This is a real threat especially with lightning, tornadoes, and earthquakes.  Hurricanes give plenty of warning but many times things can go wrong with planning to ride things out.  Either the building/location was thought to be safe or something as simple as altitude could be off by a few feet resulting in an extremely dangerous storm surge scenario where you're suddenly in the attic of a building because you're too low.

As far as the attitude of the general public on evacuations and such, it's rather scary talking to people in vulnerable areas.  I have relatives that live in central Florida and during Charley and Frances their communities were impacted in a way of nuisance (street flooding, power outages, tree and roof damage, etc.).  I was amazed when I was told that people in the community were leaving their garage doors open!  I asked why and he told me they were told to open their garage doors so when the power goes out they would be able to get out!!!  This is insane because the absolute last thing you want is a HUGE opening for wind to come in to rip off your roof.  They experienced 100 mph gusts in the area which is enough to do serious damage with a garage door open.  And that's the kind of BS (along with tape over windows) I see people doing.  There's a reason why overhead doors in Florida have double the amount (or more) of reinforcing strakes than doors up here in the mid atlantic.  They need to be STRONG.  Opening the door just completely sidesteps this fortification. 

And thanks for (Josh) pointing out that it's never safe to ride out a storm even in a concrete building that is believed to withstand a storm surge.  You NEVER want to be in any structure that's submerged any longer than you have to be.  You don't know how fast that water is moving or what kind of damage is being done to the footing, for example.  That's a mistake with costly consequences, namely death.

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1 hour ago, shaggy said:

To be honest I was one of those that was fearing the worst. The surge alone was so jaw dropping that the fear was could you find high enough ground. Of course you had and were safe but when the stories of 20+ foot surges and the videos of it started coming out the concern was real. 

Hey, shaggy! How've you  been? Thanks for worrying about me. I was a li'l worried, too. I made sure to select a building that was high-enough above sea level, but there was a lot of wind damage, and I had to relocate during the eye. Anyhoo, now I'm OK. :)

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In case you guys are interested in the data I collected in Marsh Harbour as it took a direct, bull's-eye hit from a 160-knot hurricane... 

A full report is coming, but in the meantime, this here infographic summarizes the data from one of my devices. Timeframes for "eyewall" and "peak winds" are subjectively determined and should be taken as rough guides only.

Some quick remarks:

* The buildup to the peak winds was very gradual—even once I was in eyewall—likely because of the cyclone’s slow forward motion.

* The eye had bright, misty, milky quality. There was a brief stadium effect, although I only noticed it later on when going through my video footage. (I think my eyes just hadn’t yet adjusted to the brightness.) The lull lasted long: ~1:05 – 2:30 pm.

* I collected data with two devices. They matched well: 913.4 mb (1:50 pm) and 913.7 mb (1:53 pm) in the eye. I sadly ended data collection in the eye, as I needed to relocate to safety. I believe I caught the minimum pressure, as it was starting to edge upwards when I relocated—but can’t be sure. Grrrr.

* I believe my location was stricken by high-energy mesovortices. I couldn't see them in the 100% whiteout, but that’s the only explanation for the wild pressure fluctuations in the inner eyewall (see data), and also the damage—for example, a car thrown from the parking lot up onto the lawn next to our bunker, against the primary wind flow. Concrete walls smashed to rubble and cars crushed or torn open like sardine cans also suggested locally-augmented winds.

* Weird ear pressure was almost nonstop in the storm’s core, and I had an unpleasant headache during most of it.

* As we were entering the eye (1:04 pm), a third device (hanging from my neck for spot checks, not quality-controlled data) showed a 4-mb drop (~919 to ~915 mb) in 4 or 5 secs, when I happened to glance at it. The sampling rate for the data shown here (30 seconds) doesn't capture extreme short-term fluctuations like that.

One cool thing you can do is compare these pressure data with the conditions shown in my video. I timestamped the video for that exact purpose!
 

iCyclone_DORIAN_DEVICE1_infographic.png

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36 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

In case you guys are interested in the data I collected in Marsh Harbour as it took a direct, bull's-eye hit from a 160-knot hurricane... 

A full report is coming, but in the meantime, this here infographic summarizes the data from one of my devices. Timeframes for "eyewall" and "peak winds" are subjectively determined and should be taken as rough guides only.

Some quick remarks:

* The buildup to the peak winds was very gradual—even once I was in eyewall—likely because of the cyclone’s slow forward motion.

* The eye had bright, misty, milky quality—I didn’t get the stadium effect. The lull lasted long: ~1:05 – 2:30 pm.(EDIT: There actually was a stadium effect. I noticed later that the distinct eyewall clearly shows up in my video footage. I guess my eyes just hadn’t yet adjusted to the brightness.)

* I collected data with two devices. They matched well: 913.4 mb (1:50 pm) and 913.7 mb (1:53 pm) in the eye. I sadly ended data collection in the eye, as I needed to relocate to safety. I believe I caught the minimum pressure, as it was starting to edge upwards when I relocated—but can’t be sure. Grrrr.

* I believe my location was stricken by high-energy mesovortices. I couldn't see them in the 100% whiteout, but that’s the only explanation for the wild pressure fluctuations in the inner eyewall (see data), and also the damage—for example, a car thrown from the parking lot up onto the lawn next to our bunker, against the primary wind flow. Concrete walls smashed to rubble and cars crushed or torn open like sardine cans also suggested locally-augmented winds.

* Weird ear pressure was almost nonstop in the storm’s core, and I had an unpleasant headache during most of it.

* As we were entering the eye (1:04 pm), a third device (hanging from my neck for spot checks, not quality-controlled data) showed a 4-mb drop (~919 to ~915 mb) in 4 or 5 secs, when I happened to glance at it. The sampling rate for the data shown here (30 seconds) doesn't capture extreme short-term fluctuations like that.

One cool thing you can do is compare these pressure data with the conditions shown in my video. I timestamped the video for that exact purpose!
 

iCyclone_DORIAN_DEVICE1_infographic.png

Is any of the footage going to be used for your tv show on the Science Channel? Follow you on Twitter, you had me and a lot of us scared since you had no satellite phone. You may want to edit that post since I saw you mention you *did* catch the stadium effect (even if it was mist blocked). But seriously, glad to see you and everyone who rode out the storm in that bunker come out of it safe. 

 

One last note: was that the most eerie-feeling eye you ever been in?

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5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Is any of the footage going to be used for your tv show on the Science Channel? Follow you on Twitter, you had me and a lot of us scared since you had no satellite phone. You may want to edit that post since I saw you mention you *did* catch the stadium effect (even if it was mist blocked). But seriously, glad to see you and everyone who rode out the storm in that bunker come out of it safe. 

One last note: was that the most eerie-feeling eye you ever been in?

Good idea-- I edited the post to make it more "current." I had copied it from a Facebook post.) I'll probably get a satellite phone-- just been lazy about it.

Season 1 of "Hurricane Man" covers 2018's storms, so DORIAN will not be included.

DORIAN's was definitely one of the most acid-trippy eyes I've been in-- yes.

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