• Member Statistics

    16,050
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NWAflizzard
    Newest Member
    NWAflizzard
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I find it hard to believe they are an exaggeration.  those people in Mudd and areas like it had absolutley no means to evacuate.  There is no doubt in my mind the death toll will be extremely high.

I wonder more about how we even take an accurate count of these communities in the first place. I imagine that there will be many deaths that never even end up counted altogether.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Bahamas Press tweeted that the death toll on Abaco is expected to surpass 3,000

Yeah I was afraid of that...Puerto Rico's death toll was 3057 from Maria and they had almost 4 million people on that island. Surpassing 3000 seems even worse considering how small the populations of Grand Bahama and Abacos are :\

Actually gonna edit this cause you said that was from BahamaPress. Looking at their tweets they seem like sensationalists and were saying a lot of outlandish things before. So I wouldn't really trust them to accurately report anything like that. Not saying they're wrong, just slightly skeptical of their death toll.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yeah I was afraid of that...Puerto Rico's death toll was 3057 from Maria and they had almost 4 million people on that island. Surpassing 3000 seems even worse considering how small the populations of Grand Bahama and Abacos are :\

Actually gonna edit this cause you said that was from BahamaPress. Looking at their tweets they seem like sensationalists and were saying a lot of outlandish things before. So I wouldn't really trust them to accurately report anything like that.

Perhaps, but I am sure it will be in the hundreds for sure.  1,000 deaths is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Perhaps, but I am sure it will be in the hundreds for sure.  1,000 deaths is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

Well after seeing everything in this video I'm starting to believe it's probably in the thousands. I keep forgetting it stalled out over the bahamas and barely lost strength until upwelling finally effected it. Seeing the concrete structures completely destroyed is beyond words. At least when Maria hit Puerto Rico it was moving through at a decent clip. They just got hammered by winds nonstop for over 24 hours.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out this crazy before and after I was able to create.  Will post the before first and then the after in a separate post.  Notice the little blue house in the before surrounded by trees (there is a cell tower behind the guy in the hats head so you can't see it, but I can confirm it was there as he panned towards the house)

image.thumb.png.37f95c11c1872bf56fe728c8be32a43c.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Josh's full video of Dorian is now up. 
 
I expected what footage he could get outside an onslaught of whiteout conditions would be violent. That's really the only word I can think of.. violent. To his and their fortune of having time to relocate to a more stable / adequate structure during the eye.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on the video of the peak winds, damage footage in the aftermath, and the Recon data...my first best guess estimate of 140 kt (maybe 145 kt) Cat 5 MSW appears about right for the precise location where Josh filmed this.  

He did a fabulous job of documenting the event and a great job editing the footage to best tell the story!

If I remember correctly, and I might not, I think he relocated from a position to the N of where he subsequently filmed. This put him into the core of the S eyewall and the eye.  913 mb is a truly remarkable pressure measurement!

Given the estimated MSW of 160 kt was located roughly 10 nm NNW of the center, that relocation may very well have saved his life.  Although, I have no idea what the storm surge or wind did to that initial chase building.

Edit: This video is also very rare footage of legitimate Cat 5 winds.  The intense white-out conditions and the ear pain he described brings back vivid memories of my own experience with Cat 5 winds in Michael.   

P.S. I'll add that Josh didn't experience Cat 5 winds during hurricane Michael so he can't adequately compare the two, from a Cat 5 wind to Cat 5 wind, standpoint.  So, when he says Dorian's winds were much worse, it's important to keep that distinction in mind.   The Cat 5 winds of Michael were strictly confined to the unobstructed, onshore winds at Mexico Beach, where I documented the event.  The winds in his video don't look any more intense than what I saw and can be seen in my video.  Regardless, they were definitely Cat 5 intensity!  Both hurricanes caused debarking of trees in MH and at MB, respectively.   

EDZ0NhhXUAAYP3g.jpeg.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Based on the video of the peak winds, damage footage in the aftermath, and the Recon data...my first best guess estimate of 140 kt (maybe 145 kt) Cat 5 MSW appears about right for the precise location where Josh filmed this.  

He did a fabulous job of documenting the event and a great job editing the footage to best tell the story!

If I remember correctly, and I might not, I think he relocated from a position to the N of where he subsequently filmed. This put him into the core of the S eyewall and the eye.  913 mb is a truly remarkable pressure measurement!

Given the estimated MSW of 160 kt was located roughly 10 nm NNW of the center, that relocation may very well have saved his life.  Although, I have no idea what the storm surge or wind did to that initial chase building.

Edit: This video is also very rare footage of legitimate Cat 5 winds.  The intense white-out conditions and the ear pain he described brings back vivid memories of my own experience with Cat 5 winds in Michael.   

EDZ0NhhXUAAYP3g.jpeg.jpg

Yeah I noticed others reaching to cover their ears in the video. Is that pressure related or simply pain from the noise?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I noticed others reaching to cover their ears in the video. Is that pressure related or simply pain from the noise?

Hi Eyewall!  To be honest, I'm not exactly sure which one it might be or both?   At first, I thought it was due to the deafening roar of the Cat 5 winds as it had increased to an unfathomable level (both in sound and speed).  My best guess is it was the sound as I can definitely tell it's damaged my hearing since that life-altering experience.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Based on the video of the peak winds, damage footage in the aftermath, and the Recon data...my first best guess estimate of 140 kt (maybe 145 kt) Cat 5 MSW appears about right for the precise location where Josh filmed this.  

He did a fabulous job of documenting the event and a great job editing the footage to best tell the story!

If I remember correctly, and I might not, I think he relocated from a position to the N of where he subsequently filmed. This put him into the core of the S eyewall and the eye.  913 mb is a truly remarkable pressure measurement!

Given the estimated MSW of 160 kt was located roughly 10 nm NNW of the center, that relocation may very well have saved his life.  Although, I have no idea what the storm surge or wind did to that initial chase building.

Edit: This video is also very rare footage of legitimate Cat 5 winds.  The intense white-out conditions and the ear pain he described brings back vivid memories of my own experience with Cat 5 winds in Michael.   

P.S. I'll add that Josh didn't experience Cat 5 winds during hurricane Michael so he can't adequately compare the two, from a Cat 5 wind to Cat 5 wind, standpoint.  So, when he says Dorian's winds were much worse, it's important to keep that distinction in mind.   The Cat 5 winds of Michael were strictly confined to the unobstructed, onshore winds at Mexico Beach, where I documented the event.  The winds in his video don't look any more intense than what I saw and can be seen in my video.  Regardless, they were definitely Cat 5 intensity!  Both hurricanes caused debarking of trees in MH and at MB, respectively.   

 

Lol.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, Windspeed said:
On 9/12/2019 at 12:24 PM, hlcater said:
Josh's full video of Dorian is now up. 
 

I expected what footage he could get outside an onslaught of whiteout conditions would be violent. That's really the only word I can think of.. violent. To his and their fortune of having time to relocate to a more stable / adequate structure during the eye.

Yeah, it was off-the-charts. By far the worst winds I've seen.

On 9/12/2019 at 1:48 PM, the ghost of leroy said:

Pretty sick video. What a freakin weirdo. So enraptured by the chase that he didn’t notice the stadium effect until he was home and editing. 

It is crazy that I didn't see it. Keep in mind, I was in that dark bunker for an hour, so even that hazy sky was blindingly bright. It was hurting my eyes and I think that's why I didn't see it. My eyes hadn't adjusted.

8 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I noticed others reaching to cover their ears in the video. Is that pressure related or simply pain from the noise?

It was from the pressure changes caused by those huge gusts. It was killing our ears.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thank you. It's nice to be back. I don't think I'll see another cyclone like that in my career.

Lets hope not. Believe intense pressure drops cause air pain. Funny story I watched the video on my TV with surround sound cranked. At one point all my dogs started howling and barking.  I paused the video to investigate outside and then let them out .  It wasn't until I watched it again on my IPAD did I understand as they howled again. They were hearing something in your video we couldn't.  The timing was exactly at your peak winds. Weird

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thank you. It's nice to be back. I don't think I'll see another cyclone like that in my career.

I bet you will see one. ;) This sudden uptick in CAT 5s (although some might argue the frequency is resulting from a freak set of circumstances), suggests more to come. Would hate to imagine what that could have become had it not stalled.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lets hope not. Believe intense pressure drops cause air pain. Funny story I watched the video on my TV with surround sound cranked. At one point all my dogs started howling and barking.  I paused the video to investigate outside and then let them out .  It wasn't until I watched it again on my IPAD did I understand as they howled again. They were hearing something in your video we couldn't.  The timing was exactly at your peak winds. Weird

Wow. That is an extremely cool insight.

This hurricane was just an incredibly unique specimen in so many ways. It just blew everything else I've experienced out of the water-- and I've been in two Cat-5 eyes and at least kissed the eyewalls of three other Cat 5s.

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I bet you will see one. ;) This sudden uptick in CAT 5s (although some might argue the frequency is resulting from a freak set of circumstances), suggests more to come. Would hate to imagine what that could have become had it not stalled.

I dunno. The chance of penetrating the eye of another 160-knot specimen on a small island with with minimal land friction is small. But who knows? Maybe I'll pull this off again. But it was a dream come true to manage the feat even once.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Your posts are funny. :D

I'll clarify my post further and provide additional humor for you, I suppose.

It's not debatable that Dorian was a much more intense Cat 5 than Michael, but those 160 kt maximum sustained winds did not pass over Marsh Harbor (MH), thankfully.  No doubt MH got Cat 5 winds (possibly up to 145 kt) and a devastating storm surge that exceeded what Mexico Beach (MB) endured from Michael. 

I realize you still believe MB didn't see winds any higher than locations to the west (as you made clear, previously), but all the objective in-situ data clearly suggests otherwise.

Based on that misguided belief, and your own experience with substantially less peak winds in Michael, I can understand why you might feel as though MH had Cat 5 winds greater than I estimate. 

Honestly, I hate that we've consistently had these type of disagreements with past hurricanes on here.  First, you took exception when I stated all of the available data suggested Patricia was not a Cat 5 at landfall and estimated the max intensity at 130 kt.  Subsequently, the NHC report comes out and sets the Best Track at precisely 130 kt.  Then, you disagreed with my objective opinion that all the available data argued that MB had Cat 5 winds during Michael.  

Instead of appreciating all the kind words and compliments conveyed in my post regarding the fabulous job you did getting into the eye, recording one of the lowest pressures ever measured on the ground, and the excellent job you did telling the story via your video...you apparently take exception with my wholly unbiased and objective opinion that the winds in MH didn't exceed 145 kt. 

You are welcome to believe otherwise, and assume you experienced a genuine 160 kt MSW, but I feel it's important that people aren't misled to believe that such winds were experienced in MH.  Why? Not simply because I care foremost about accuracy of the scientific data, but also that someone might see your video and think, "I can ride out a 185 mph Cat 5 hurricane, too!"  

I'll conclude by yet again congratulating you on an exceptional job documenting Cat 5 Dorian.  More importantly, I'm so thankful you survived this event unharmed.  Live to chase another day, my friend! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Incredible coverage.  I've experienced ear popping from winds before during a severe storm and EF3 tornado that just missed our house.  It was incredibly scary (of course I was 13 years old) but experiencing a drawn out event like that isn't enjoyable to say the least.  Crazy seeing those guys out there with the board in strong winds.  Clearly they weren't blowing away due to the weight of their balls! ;)

 

Glad you're OK.  As the saying goes, it can always be worse, right?  Very sad seeing all the destroyed homes and lives lost and survivors' lives changed forever.

Was all the paper debris from the building you were sheltering in?  It was really coming apart.  Also noticed the light pole directly across from your recording point survived but the light fixture at the top was missing.  And the cars really took a beating.  It would have been interesting to have a few anemometers recording the max wind but these typically don't survive due to debris strikes.  The car damage shows this well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I'll clarify my post further and provide additional humor for you, I suppose.

It's not debatable that Dorian was a much more intense Cat 5 than Michael, but those 160 kt maximum sustained winds did not pass over Marsh Harbor (MH), thankfully.  No doubt MH got Cat 5 winds (possibly up to 145 kt) and a devastating storm surge that exceeded what Mexico Beach (MB) endured from Michael. 

I realize you still believe MB didn't see winds any higher than locations to the west (as you made clear, previously), but all the objective in-situ data clearly suggests otherwise.

Based on that misguided belief, and your own experience with substantially less peak winds in Michael, I can understand why you might feel as though MH had Cat 5 winds greater than I estimate. 

Honestly, I hate that we've consistently had these type of disagreements with past hurricanes on here.  First, you took exception when I stated all of the available data suggested Patricia was not a Cat 5 at landfall and estimated the max intensity at 130 kt.  Subsequently, the NHC report comes out and sets the Best Track at precisely 130 kt.  Then, you disagreed with my objective opinion that all the available data argued that MB had Cat 5 winds during Michael.  

Instead of appreciating all the kind words and compliments conveyed in my post regarding the fabulous job you did getting into the eye, recording one of the lowest pressures ever measured on the ground, and the excellent job you did telling the story via your video...you apparently take exception with my wholly unbiased and objective opinion that the winds in MH didn't exceed 145 kt. 

You are welcome to believe otherwise, and assume you experienced a genuine 160 kt MSW, but I feel it's important that people aren't misled to believe that such winds were experienced in MH.  Why? Not simply because I care foremost about accuracy of the scientific data, but also that someone might see your video and think, "I can ride out a 185 mph Cat 5 hurricane, too!"  

I'll conclude by yet again congratulating you on an exceptional job documenting Cat 5 Dorian.  More importantly, I'm so thankful you survived this event unharmed.  Live to chase another day, my friend! :)

Where did you get your engineering and meteorology degrees?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I'll clarify my post further and provide additional humor for you, I suppose.

It's not debatable that Dorian was a much more intense Cat 5 than Michael, but those 160 kt maximum sustained winds did not pass over Marsh Harbor (MH), thankfully.  No doubt MH got Cat 5 winds (possibly up to 145 kt) and a devastating storm surge that exceeded what Mexico Beach (MB) endured from Michael. 

I realize you still believe MB didn't see winds any higher than locations to the west (as you made clear, previously), but all the objective in-situ data clearly suggests otherwise.

Based on that misguided belief, and your own experience with substantially less peak winds in Michael, I can understand why you might feel as though MH had Cat 5 winds greater than I estimate. 

Honestly, I hate that we've consistently had these type of disagreements with past hurricanes on here.  First, you took exception when I stated all of the available data suggested Patricia was not a Cat 5 at landfall and estimated the max intensity at 130 kt.  Subsequently, the NHC report comes out and sets the Best Track at precisely 130 kt.  Then, you disagreed with my objective opinion that all the available data argued that MB had Cat 5 winds during Michael.  

Instead of appreciating all the kind words and compliments conveyed in my post regarding the fabulous job you did getting into the eye, recording one of the lowest pressures ever measured on the ground, and the excellent job you did telling the story via your video...you apparently take exception with my wholly unbiased and objective opinion that the winds in MH didn't exceed 145 kt. 

You are welcome to believe otherwise, and assume you experienced a genuine 160 kt MSW, but I feel it's important that people aren't misled to believe that such winds were experienced in MH.  Why? Not simply because I care foremost about accuracy of the scientific data, but also that someone might see your video and think, "I can ride out a 185 mph Cat 5 hurricane, too!"  

I'll conclude by yet again congratulating you on an exceptional job documenting Cat 5 Dorian.  More importantly, I'm so thankful you survived this event unharmed.  Live to chase another day, my friend! :)

What I find fascinating here are all the viewpoints that you ascribe to me that I never expressed. It's like you're debating an imagined version of me.

I appreciate your deep and ongoing interest in my work. Have a great night. :)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

Incredible coverage.  I've experienced ear popping from winds before during a severe storm and EF3 tornado that just missed our house.  It was incredibly scary (of course I was 13 years old) but experiencing a drawn out event like that isn't enjoyable to say the least.  Crazy seeing those guys out there with the board in strong winds.  Clearly they weren't blowing away due to the weight of their balls! ;)

 

Glad you're OK.  As the saying goes, it can always be worse, right?  Very sad seeing all the destroyed homes and lives lost and survivors' lives changed forever.

Was all the paper debris from the building you were sheltering in?  It was really coming apart.  Also noticed the light pole directly across from your recording point survived but the light fixture at the top was missing.  And the cars really took a beating.  It would have been interesting to have a few anemometers recording the max wind but these typically don't survive due to debris strikes.  The car damage shows this well. 

Hey, thanks! Yeah, when we saw all those papers flying, we were kind of alarmed, because we took that as a sign that some part of the building had broken open. The flying debris in this thing was crazy-- really, really scary. It was way beyond anything I've seen in previous storms, including MICHAEL. That's not to take away from MICHAEL, but it just didn't hold a candle to this beast.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.