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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Still hanging on - 2 pm update (no change in winds and going almost due NE) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081736
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 62A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CHEVERY QUEBEC
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

 

173714_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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And at the 5 pm update, Dorian finally dropped to < 75 mph and is now sporting TS-level winds -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 082038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN WEAKENS BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF ST. ANTHONY NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

 

204649_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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We got absolutely nailed on the backside as the center passed, I’m guessing some kind of sting jet event because that was some very impressive winds. I live on Cape Sable Island, very southern tip of NS. Here is a video I got when the wind had just shifted to the Northwest. 

 

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4 minutes ago, NSwx said:

We got absolutely nailed on the backside as the center passed, I’m guessing some kind of sting jet event because that was some very impressive winds. I live on Cape Sable Island, very southern tip of NS. Here is a video I got when the wind had just shifted to the Northwest. 

 

Wow.  Great video but I'd be afraid to be on that side of the street with those power lines!  :o

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8 pm update - Dorian starting to weaken, pressure up and winds down -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 082336
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.5N 55.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ENE OF ST. ANTHONY NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

 

233936_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Been so busy the past 10 days, I am just now catching up on the exact track Dorian took through the Bahamas.   As far as I know, we had two chasers there for the landfall: Josh at Marsh Harbour and Jim Edds at Elbow Cay.

Looking through the Recon archives, and radar and satellite loops...it appears that both Josh and Jim were somewhat fortunate (as much as one can be that still gets hit with Cat 5 conditions and a very large storm surge) that the maximum winds passed to their north. 

Based on all the videos I've seen so far from both locations, I'd estimate they both saw MSWs in the 140 kt Cat 5 range...with those 160 kt max winds fortuitously staying a little more than 10 nm to their N.  To date, I've personally only seen a little of Jim's footage and none of Josh's.  Very much look forward to seeing more of Jim's if he took any and whatever Josh may have captured.  

As I'm most curious as to what those 160 kt winds look like, has anyone seen video from the areas that endured the max winds in the N eyewall?

Edit:  Both Josh and Jim each collected some truly remarkable data from the eye of an officially estimated 160 kt Cat 5.  Simply amazing!

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Been so busy the past 10 days, I am just now catching up on the exact track Dorian took through the Bahamas.   As far as I know, we had two chasers there for the landfall: Josh at Marsh Harbour and Jim Edds at Elbow Cay. Looking through the Recon archives, and radar and satellite loops...it appears that both Josh and Jim were somewhat fortunate (as much as one can be that still gets hit with Cat 5 conditions and a very large storm surge) that the maximum winds passed to their north.  Based on all the videos I've seen so far from both locations, I'd estimate they both saw MSWs in the 140 kt Cat 5 range...with those 160 kt max winds fortuitously staying a little more than 10 nm to their N.  To date, I've personally only seen a little of Jim's footage and none of Josh's.  Very much look forward to seeing more of Jim's if he took any and whatever Josh may have captured.  

As I'm most curious as to what those 160 kt winds look like, has anyone seen video from the areas that endured the max winds in the N eyewall?

Edit:  Both Josh and Jim each collected some truly remarkable data from the eye of an officially estimated 160 kt Cat 5.  Simply amazing!

 

 

I'd argue Josh at least got winds close to mean speeds contained in the northern inner boundary of the eyewall. Some of what he describes sounds like the work of mesovortices, which can result in stronger winds than typical for a west and east impacting quadrant based on due easterly steering flow. Yes, obviously the average wind speeds were likely worse overall just to their north. But strong MCVs we sometimes observe in the most intense cyclones can wreak havoc 360° around the eye.

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52 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

 

I'd argue Josh at least got winds close to mean speeds contained in the northern inner boundary of the eyewall. Some of what he describes sounds like the work of mesovortices, which can result in stronger winds than typical for a west and east impacting quadrant based on due easterly steering flow. Yes, obviously the average wind speeds were likely worse overall just to their north. But strong MCVs we sometimes observe in the most intense cyclones can wreak havoc 360° around the eye.

All we have available to formulate a genuine scientifically objective best guess/estimate is the data obtained via Recon, radar, satellite, and any in-situ obs collected by weather stations on the ground.  Based solely on those data, and all the available video I've seen thus far, nothing suggests the max winds reached those extreme velocities in either MH or EC.  

If there is any video evidence or additional data that might suggest winds greater than 140 kt Cat 5 MSWs at either location, I'm very eager to see it. 

The whole point of my initial post was to express how fortunate both Josh and Jim were that those max winds passed a little more than 10 nm to their N; which is a very significant deal regarding receiving MSW winds of 140 kt versus 160 kt.  Theoretically, it may have literally been the difference between life and death.   As such, I'm thankful that the absolute peak wind did pass to their N.  Even if your theory is correct about possible MVs hitting MH, the main point remains exactly the same.   

And, secondly, to see if anyone knew of any possible vids that may have been taken by residents in those areas a little more than 10 nm to the N of our guys on the ground.

To reiterate, I'm just most thankful they both survived those Cat 5 conditions, unharmed.  

P.S. I'd be remiss if I didn't also convey my genuine respect and appreciation for your knowledge and scientific opinions, regardless if we might possibly disagree on this subject.  

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All we have available to formulate a genuine scientifically objective best guess/estimate is the data obtained via Recon, radar, satellite, and any in-situ obs collected by weather stations on the ground.  Based solely on those data, and all the available video I've seen thus far, nothing suggests the max winds reached those extreme velocities in either MH or EK.   If there is any video evidence or additional data that might suggest winds greater than 140 kt Cat 5 MSWs at either location, I'm very eager to see it. 

The whole point of my initial post was to express how fortunate both Josh and Jim were that those max winds passed a little more than 10 nm to their N; which is a very significant deal regarding receiving MSW winds of 140 kt versus 160 kt.  Theoretically, it may have literally been the difference between life and death.   As such, I'm thankful that the absolute peak wind did pass to their N.  Even if your theory is correct about possible MVs hitting MH, the main point remains exactly the same.   

And, secondly, to see if anyone knew of any possible vids that may have been taken by residents in those areas a little more than 10 nm to the N of our guys on the ground.

To reiterate, I'm just most thankful they both survived those Cat 5 conditions, unharmed.  

P.S. I'd be remiss if I didn't also convey my genuine respect and appreciation for your knowledge and scientific opinions, regardless if we might possibly disagree on this subject.  

 

No worries. I don't disagree that the overall mean sustained was as you described. However, recon was getting some insane unflagged SFMR data in all quadrants just prior to initial landfall. Had they actually gone with that data, Dorian's advisory intensity would have been even higher. To my point, I believe MVs that were clearly visible within the first early morning visible shots might be to blame for those recordings. Josh has not yet released any footage, however he did mention cars and heavyweighted objects bring lifted and flung through the air like toys. It sounds like the type of lift you would witness given strong MCVs in progress at landfall which can give intermittently temporary intense boosts to windgusts with vertical lift beyond typical straight-line eyewall winds associated with the core vortex (which would usually be stronger in the northern periphery of the eyewall in most cases for an east to west moving hurricane). We'll see if he interjects into this discussion or touches on it further in his report.
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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
15 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:
All we have available to formulate a genuine scientifically objective best guess/estimate is the data obtained via Recon, radar, satellite, and any in-situ obs collected by weather stations on the ground.  Based solely on those data, and all the available video I've seen thus far, nothing suggests the max winds reached those extreme velocities in either MH or EK.   If there is any video evidence or additional data that might suggest winds greater than 140 kt Cat 5 MSWs at either location, I'm very eager to see it. 

The whole point of my initial post was to express how fortunate both Josh and Jim were that those max winds passed a little more than 10 nm to their N; which is a very significant deal regarding receiving MSW winds of 140 kt versus 160 kt.  Theoretically, it may have literally been the difference between life and death.   As such, I'm thankful that the absolute peak wind did pass to their N.  Even if your theory is correct about possible MVs hitting MH, the main point remains exactly the same.   

And, secondly, to see if anyone knew of any possible vids that may have been taken by residents in those areas a little more than 10 nm to the N of our guys on the ground.

To reiterate, I'm just most thankful they both survived those Cat 5 conditions, unharmed.  

P.S. I'd be remiss if I didn't also convey my genuine respect and appreciation for your knowledge and scientific opinions, regardless if we might possibly disagree on this subject.  

 

 

No worries. I don't disagree that the overall mean sustained was as you described. However, recon was getting some insane unflagged SFMR data in all quadrants just prior to initial landfall. Had they actually gone with that data, Dorian's advisory intensity would have been even higher. To my point, I believe MVs that were clearly visible within the first early morning visible shots might be to blame for those recordings. Josh has not yet released any footage, however he did mention cars and heavyweighted objects bring lifted and flung through the air like toys. It sounds like the type of lift you would witness given strong MCVs in progress at landfall which can give intermittently temporary intense boosts to windgusts with vertical lift beyond typical straight-line eyewall winds associated with the core vortex (which would usually be stronger in the northern periphery of the eyewall in most cases for an east to west moving hurricane). We'll see if he interjects into this discussion or touches on it further in his report.

I'll only add that I wouldn't doubt that such short-lived and wind-enhancing mesovorticies may very well have rotated around into MH, as can often be the case in such extreme hurricanes that are rapidly intensifying (as you already noted). 

Case in point, If you analyze the video footage I captured during hurricane Michael, from the western-most portion of MB, it also appears that there were mesovorticies that hit that location....as was alluded to in the NHC post-season TCR.

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2 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Been so busy the past 10 days, I am just now catching up on the exact track Dorian took through the Bahamas.   As far as I know, we had two chasers there for the landfall: Josh at Marsh Harbour and Jim Edds at Elbow Cay.

Looking through the Recon archives, and radar and satellite loops...it appears that both Josh and Jim were somewhat fortunate (as much as one can be that still gets hit with Cat 5 conditions and a very large storm surge) that the maximum winds passed to their north. 

Based on all the videos I've seen so far from both locations, I'd estimate they both saw MSWs in the 140 kt Cat 5 range...with those 160 kt max winds fortuitously staying a little more than 10 nm to their N.  To date, I've personally only seen a little of Jim's footage and none of Josh's.  Very much look forward to seeing more of Jim's if he took any and whatever Josh may have captured.  

As I'm most curious as to what those 160 kt winds look like, has anyone seen video from the areas that endured the max winds in the N eyewall?

Edit:  Both Josh and Jim each collected some truly remarkable data from the eye of an officially estimated 160 kt Cat 5.  Simply amazing!

My distant relatives in Man-O-War and Marsh Harbour survived, but they had their house flattened.  No video of the height of the storm as far as I know, but the post-storm videos looked horrific there.  I’m pretty sure they sustained cat 5 winds.

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On a slightly different subject; the NC landfall of Dorian: Im curious as to others opinions regarding whether Dorian might have actually struck the NC Outer Banks as a Cat 2 hurricane? 

The official operational estimate was set at the upper-end of category-one on the SSHWS (80 kt).

Based on all the available data, it appears the MSW stayed just offshore to the S & E of the coast...so that it's unlikely any potential Cat 2 MSWs actually struck the area, regardless.

On a personal note, I intercepted Dorian on the eastern-most portion of Harkers Island and right at the Cape Lookout National Seashore.   Given its NE movement and the highest Recon obs being found in the E to SE eyewall, I was unable to get into the peak winds. 

Nonetheless, the western-most portion of the eye did pass over my location and I measured a lowest BP of 961.0 mb (albeit it might have been slightly lower given I was logging the data at 30 second intervals).  Highest wind gusts at my location were in the 90-100 mph range and the surge reached 3 feet deep on the roadway.  Of course, these conditions were nothing remotely close to what the guys experienced in the NW Bahamas or my own experience in the absolute brunt of hurricane Michael last season!  

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7 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

My distant relatives in Man-O-War and Marsh Harbour survived, but they had their house flattened.  No video of the height of the storm as far as I know, but the post-storm videos looked horrific there.  I’m pretty sure they sustained cat 5 winds.

I'm so truly sorry to hear the loss that some of your family members endured as a result of this catastrophic hurricane! :(  Will be keeping them in my most heartfelt thoughts and prayers as I have for all who've suffered through that calamity.  

As I stated in my original post, I too believe strongly that legitimate Cat 5 MSW was experienced there, as well.  

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NHC issued their final advisory on Dorian @ 11 pm and declared it now extratropical (that far north!)-

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 090242
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...52.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM N OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued all tropical cyclone
warnings for Atlantic Canada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Dorian was located near latitude 52.1 North, longitude 53.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical
cyclone Dorian will continue to move away from Atlantic Canada
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue across portions
of southeastern Newfoundland until early Monday and then diminish by
late Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence
and the West Coast of Newfoundland will continue to subside through
Monday morning.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
less than 1 inch across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of
days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the
U.S. will continue for another day or so.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ETA - some quick and dirty looks at a couple models and they seem to be showing it heading directly for Iceland.

024444_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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This is rapidly evolving into a humanitarian disaster and crisis. These people need our help. We as Americans need to do all we can. Does anyone realize that most of these folks spend their entire working adult lives in service to Americans on vacation? Their entire social construct has been obliterated. They need and deserve our help. Period.

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I am hoping those numbers are a bit of an exaggeration, although they are clearly much higher than the inital numbers being reported. Some of the poorer communities on Abaco were low lying and very vulnerable to surge,

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1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

I am hoping those numbers are a bit of an exaggeration, although they are clearly much higher than the inital numbers being reported. Some of the poorer communities on Abaco were low lying and very vulnerable to surge,

I find it hard to believe they are an exaggeration.  those people in Mudd and areas like it had absolutley no means to evacuate.  There is no doubt in my mind the death toll will be extremely high.

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