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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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It’s calm here at the moment but I know from Juan that when things get going it will ramp up quick. One good thing I guess is that it is hitting during daylight hours. I expect some good pics/footage from this. A good hashtag to follow is #nsstorm or #NSwx.

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11 am report (pressure down to 953 mb, speed now up to 29 mph and slight course change backing a bit with winds unchanged) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 071451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

 

115151_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 071452
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting
extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the
southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the
north and east.  However, the cyclone still has persistent
convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a
hurricane on this advisory.  NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum
pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the
initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb.  The initial
intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat
data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center.

Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial
motion of 040/25 kt.  The current motion should bring the center
of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and
near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter.  Subsequently,
Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland
and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the
far north Atlantic.  There are no significant changes to the
previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the
various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the
next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and
associated surface frontal zone.  The global models agree on a
gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete.  However,
the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as
it moves through portions of eastern Canada.  The global models also
agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by
another extratropical low in 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast
again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle
large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that
are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 42.0N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 45.1N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA
 24H  08/1200Z 48.9N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0000Z 51.7N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1200Z 54.2N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/071734.shtml

 

BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory Number 58

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..

. ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...

INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...42.8N 64.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF EASTPORT MAINE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/071735.shtml

Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal
intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of
Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane-
force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many
vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to
baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition.
The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h
intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the
same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to
the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data.

There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory.

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11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is going to be an awful hit for Nova Scotia. They are not used to having a cat 2 hurricane slam into them.

This would be a pretty good direct hit for anyone but Halifax-Dartmouth is a major metropolitan area that has trees everywhere so it's gonna' be a mess tomorrow.  I don't want to pester my in-laws for pictures but maybe I can get them to shoot some video of the aftermath in Dartmouth.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's never been anything above cat 2 to strike Canada, right? 

Pretty sure Juan was the strongest and this is right there with it.

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I suspect tree damage will be significant but maybe not as bad as Juan. My theory is that most of the trees that could be blown down by a low end cat 2 hurricane were taken down by Juan. Most of those left will probably stand up to Dorian.

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38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This would be a pretty good direct hit for anyone but Halifax-Dartmouth is a major metropolitan area that has trees everywhere so it's gonna' be a mess tomorrow.  I don't want to pester my in-laws for pictures but maybe I can get them to shoot some video of the aftermath in Dartmouth.

More trees in my location.  We're hoping they don't come down on the house or garage. The leading edge of the storm just arrived and the lights are already flickering. We are surrounded by fairly old growth forest on 3 sides so this will be dicey.  The white caps on the Bras d'Or are getting quite impressive now and the freight train sound is beginning to get constant - disconcerting when you consider the center of the storm is over 300 miles away. 

 

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I suspect tree damage will be significant but maybe not as bad as Juan. My theory is that most of the trees that could be blown down by a low end cat 2 hurricane were taken down by Juan. Most of those left will probably stand up to Dorian.

Not here in Cape Breton.

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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I suspect tree damage will be significant but maybe not as bad as Juan. My theory is that most of the trees that could be blown down by a low end cat 2 hurricane were taken down by Juan. Most of those left will probably stand up to Dorian.

Juan hit 16 years ago. I'm pretty sure there's a lot of new weak trees that would get taken down.

3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

11 am report (pressure down to 953 mb, speed now up to 29 mph and slight course change backing a bit with winds unchanged) -

Weren't there a few people here a few days ago saying that Dorian wouldn't have a pressure this low that far north?

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Numerous damage reports coming in around Halifax from local meteorologists on twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1170422039481597952

Boardwalk going to need some repair after the storm with that storm surge and wave energy. Winds now gusting to 107 km/h at the #Halifax Waterfront. #
This is what it looks like on Queen Street right now. A friend tells me the roof blew off a building, damaging windows and cars below.

 

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Four different stations have reported wind gusts of hurricane force within the past hour, including Halifax Kootenay and Yarmouth Airport. Highest sustained I sea is 110 mh/hr (68 mph) at Osborne Head

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Amazingly another big burst of convection on the N side as it approaches another landfall is certainly helping to mix down the winds..  This storm has been kinda freaky the way it behaves when it get's close to land, like it has a vendetta....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-St_Lawrence-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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35 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Amazingly another big burst of convection on the N side as it approaches another landfall is certainly helping to mix down the winds..  This storm has been kinda freaky the way it behaves when it get's close to land, like it has a vendetta....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-St_Lawrence-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Think the word unique would apply. 

Considering its behavior overall. From the Bahamas up the east coast. 

There will not be another "Dorian" named system in the future.  Definitely one for the books. 

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NHC declared in post-tropical in latest advisory. Can't ever remember seeing a system declared post-tropical with 100 mph winds before.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

 

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39 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

from the ASCAT past, the SW flank of Dorian was worse with that developing sting jet. If that holds there will be even stronger gusts on the backside.

Thanks i couldn't remember what that was called.   You can see it on the visible.....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-St_Lawrence-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

NHC declared in post-tropical in latest advisory. Can't ever remember seeing a system declared post-tropical with 100 mph winds before.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

 

Nope, not even sandy was 100 mph

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3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Juan hit 16 years ago. I'm pretty sure there's a lot of new weak trees that would get taken down.

Weren't there a few people here a few days ago saying that Dorian wouldn't have a pressure this low that far north?

I think the issue in that case was that some models were showing pressures down into the 940s (or lower) for it while having it still considered a "hurricane" (tropical) well above 40N.  However there were posts where some suggested an opportunity for it to strengthen once it got away from land interactions and back out over open water - and probably partly because the water has been warm pretty far north with no prior storms having traversed areas in what would be its path.

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2019-09-07_194032.jpg

Some wind damage and heavy rainfall way downeast.  Not sure how widespread winds were in that area.

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