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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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51 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

What is weird is that it's almost like an October/nor'easter type of feel out there now vs a "tropical" feel.  Temp has dropped down here to 61 from my morning low of 64 so it is getting raw out now.

When I was out earlier, I thought the same thing.  Feels more like an Nor'easter.

 

Good luck to our Canadian posters.

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Taking a long look at the water vapor loop and some of the features driving to meet Dorian. I wonder if watches might have to be expanded in portions of SNE and NNE? There's a possibility this makes landfall further west on Nova Scotia than I see on the cone. TS watches might be just a good precautionary measure for coastal portions of areas aforementioned. 

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5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Taking a long look at the water vapor loop and some of the features driving to meet Dorian. I wonder if watches might have to be expanded in portions of SNE and NNE? There's a possibility this makes landfall further west on Nova Scotia than I see on the cone. TS watches might be just a good precautionary measure for coastal portions of areas aforementioned. 

Here is the mid-level WV loop -

G16_sector_ne_band09_24fr_20190906-1542-midlevel-wv-343pm-09062019.gif

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This is going to be something for Nova Scotia especially Halifax. Their version of Sandy?

Tropical storm warnings all the way to the eastern Maine coast.

Dorian has impacted a lot of areas from the Lesser Antilles all the way up to Greenland.

Real impactful storm despite what some people claim

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4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Yes, watching that feature over the great lakes, might give it a slight tug, best viewed on full conus

Funny that you bring that up because I kept saying to myself - Wait!  Where did I see that feature??????   And I found it - I had posted the 18z NAM & 18z GFS yesterday that showed it.

nam3km_ref_frzn_us_fh1-52-18z-09052019.gif

gfs_ref_frzn_us_fh6-60-18z-09052019.gif

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Dorian in a tie for 6th lowest pressure in a landfalling North Carolina hurricane since 1950.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1169964136286941185?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Table of North Carolina landfalling #hurricanes since 1950 ranked by minimum sea level pressure (with lower pressure meaning a stronger storm). #HurricaneDorian is in a tie for 6th place with Floyd (1999) and Florence (2018).
 
 
Image

 

5mph stronger than Irene with a satellite presentation that was way better. 

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5 pm advisory - now moving at 24 mph (pressure, wind speed, heading unchanged) -

Quote
654 
WTNT35 KNHC 062058
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 72.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

151759_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-5pm.png

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Now nhc is saying cat 2 at landfall here in Halifax. Jesus this just keeps going from bad to worse.
Better get to the NSLC before they run out of Keith's. Stay safe!

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Directly over my fanny. And I mean directly. I have no words. If the eye somehow holds together, I will be able to witness it. Atleast that will be worth the pain. How many folks have been in the eye of a hurricane north of 40? I hope that happens.
071f3a0aa24cd2da1d04ff83f38765e2.jpg

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you better watch we don't have another "Hurricane Juan" for Halifax folks. that track is definitely not what Halifax needs as it does go up the Harbour for a bit with its passage. but change that trajectory into Nova Scotia from SW to South, and we get a replay of 2003. Something I don't want to happen again, as I was on duty for a company called World Weatherwatch in Markham at the time. We had a contract with CN Rail which uses Halifax/Dartmouth as one of its main hubs on the Atlantic coast. And watching the radar as the center blasted just to the west of Halifax Harbour, putting Halifax/Dartmouth right in the eye wall. After my shift was up the next morning, I saw the footage on CBC and CTV and it was chilling. combination of a cat-2 storm with movement at 20+ mph, funneling into the harbour, and the damage around Halifax was horrific.

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I posted a coupla nights ago about Juan hitting the Maritimes in 2003, lotta people we met in Nova Scotia and P.E.I. when we were playing gigs up there had stories about that hurricane and the damage it caused. For those unfamiliar, check it out:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Juan

Hopefully everybody is getting ready and the power companies have out-of-area crews ready to come in and help. Be safe up there!

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For the 8 pm update - everything holding steady (no changes) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 062350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 54A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 71.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

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2 hours ago, Hazey said:

Directly over my fanny. And I mean directly. I have no words. If the eye somehow holds together, I will be able to witness it. Atleast that will be worth the pain. How many folks have been in the eye of a hurricane north of 40? I hope that happens.
071f3a0aa24cd2da1d04ff83f38765e2.jpg

Can you tell if  the eye is coming over my location which is Aberdeen in Cape Breton?  It is on the Bras d'Or Lakes just past Whycocomagh on the 105.

People here are taking Dorian very seriously.  We had appointments all day so I an just now got back from the gas station where I went to fill up the car and a big container to run our generator. I got the last regular gas they had! From what I read, it seems that the SE quarter of the storm is likely to produce the highest winds and I think that applies to my location.  

Juan was unnerving here but we did not get the damage, especially downed trees that Halifax got.  I suspect this time around, we see much more damage.

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32 minutes ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

 Can you tell if  the eye is coming over my location which is Aberdeen in Cape Breton?  It is on the Bras d'Or Lakes just past Whycocomagh on the 105.

People here are taking Dorian very seriously.  We had appointments all day so I an just now got back from the gas station where I went to fill up the car and a big container to run our generator. I got the last regular gas they had! From what I read, it seems that the SE quarter of the storm is likely to produce the highest winds and I think that applies to my location.  

Juan was unnerving here but we did not get the damage, especially downed trees that Halifax got.  I suspect this time around, we see much more damage.

Good luck up there and stay safe

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Can you tell if  the eye is coming over my location which is Aberdeen in Cape Breton? 

Center should pass west of you jest over or east of Halifax. You’ll be on the right windy side. Gonna be a rough ride.

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5 am update has some downgrades (in a relative sense) for Dorian (wind speed down and pressure up) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 070838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 68.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

 

090608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-09072019.png

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Tropical storm force winds have reached my area (( Barrington passage )) in the last hour or so, just had a gust to 82 km/h from the East. Not much rain yet to speak of.

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8 am update (no change and still on course towards Nova Scotia but still not "extra-tropical" yet) -

 

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 071147
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 310 MI...255 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

 

090608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-8am.png

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