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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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I've seen far worse hurricanes over the Outter Banks. Convection has actually deepened and cloudtops have cooled overall in the past few hours. Note: Based on satellite IR alone, you would assume this has made an official landfall; however due to parallax (earth's curvature away from satellite's sensors), the cloudtops are offset north versus the base of the eyewall / vortex. Radar is a more accurate remote sensing tool for determining landfalls.0323f9bf589425f8265afeca730a4cfa.gif&key=1d59a6a940aa5a4ae4683a664e376f52822b70e84288834d75761322088530df

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

I've seen far worse hurricanes over the Outter Banks. Convection has actually increased overall in the past few hours. Note: Based on satellite IR alone, you would assume this has made an official landfall; however due to parallax (earth's curvature away from satellite's sensors), the cloudtops are offset north versus the base of the eyewall / vortex. Radar is a more accurate remote sensing tool for determining landfalls.0323f9bf589425f8265afeca730a4cfa.gif

Yup - got my handy dandy radar to see where it really is!

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5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Check out this live webcam from the western eyewall (got it from Storm2K), obviously time sensitive but they're in the western eyewall now and conditions are intense. 

 

https://ocracokeharborinn.com/webcams/

A shame because they are probably not going to get much of an eye but a whole lot of eyewall! :yikes:

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Per radar, Hatteras is now in the calm eye. But we would still need Dorian to take a bit of a jog or wobble NNE or -40° to assure official landfall. If per chance Hatteras gets very close to the center of the eye, you can bet the NHC will call it. It's gonna be close!

 

Also of note: Radar shows the eyewall shrinking some. It is also trying to close off the eyewall band on the southern semicircle. Dorian might even be strengthening a little here. Certainly holding steady if nothing else.aebe853744072f26e11ac62cac8dfbb7.gif&key=3ee1a659541afdb3158c8dddbb0588ebf7d6eb9867c7933b64708707108dd503

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Eyewall is visible over obx. 40/70 was wrong.


.

An official landfall is if the center of the eye (i.e., area of lowest pressure) is over land. Just being in the clear area of the eyewall doesn't count. 

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Remember when the Euro deepened Dorian to 937mb and everyone told me I was ridiculous for suggesting it wasn't that far-fetched?

hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_10.png

  • Haha 1

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8 am update - still holding steady, with cone showing it launched ots (possibly even just scraping Nova Scotia vs full hit).

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 75.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

 

091553_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Have been slowly delving into this program but am thinking this base velocity shot means the strongest winds are still just offshore.

kmhx_20190906_1150_BV.png

Probably but the Cape Lookout observation station recorded a gust of 95 mph earlier and those winds probably were confined to the heavy radar returns juuuuust east or SE of the center. Minimum pressure recorded so far at Cape Hatteras is 960.7 mb but that was with winds still gusting close to 70 mph. They'll probably bottom out below 960 soon. 

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It's not going to landfall is it? lol... Dorian has trolled the SE CONUS in epic fashion. You can hardly imagine any closer a track to the geography and shape of the SE coastline and it not manage to landfall. At least the stronger WSW winds in the SE vort have remained well offshore throughout the event.

 

 

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Does anyone have a link to see between hourly observations? I'm curious as to what the highest gust and minimum pressure readings are but the hourly observations doesn't always capture it. 

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5 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Maybe not meeting the technical definition of landfall, but it’s landfalling at Cape Hatteras right now.

It's so unbelievably close. Looks like it's going to miss landfall by like 5 miles.

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Does anyone have a link to see between hourly observations? I'm curious as to what the highest gust and minimum pressure readings are but the hourly observations doesn't always capture it. 

There's a recon in there now. Here is what they captured so far -

recon_AF308-5105A-DORIAN_timeseries-09062019.png

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4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There's a recon in there now. Here is what they captured so far -

recon_AF308-5105A-DORIAN_timeseries-09062019.png

That's pretty impressive, pressure still pretty steady and both flight level winds and unflagged SFMRs are higher than I thought. 

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