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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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5 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

The nested NAM did an excellent job yesterday suggesting a heightened risk of tornadoes in SC/NC today. The 18z run suggests that threat will continue in eastern NC this evening. It looks like most of the low level CAPE will wash out by midnight which should greatly reduce the threat at that time. Here is the 18z run updraft helicity swath output. 

nnam.JPG

Well that's good. I know its purpose is to look for small-scale convection and it can overdo it sometimes under normal circumstances... So being able to tease that out of the throes of a huge rolling ball of convection is remarkable!

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7 minutes ago, AJF0602 said:

Lools like they just fixed the advisory and changed it back to 105mph lol.

I think what happened is that they have a "graphic" (image) version of the text advisory that gets thrown into their tweets but also have a regular text version on their website. So they had tweeted the wrong info in the graphic one initially (this is like the 3rd time now IIRC) and then had to issue a tweeted correction (their website version was okay).

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There's a lot of north in the short term motion which isn't great for the Wilmington region.

Edge of the eyewall is ~20nm from KLTX and edge of the eye is ~35nm away.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Well that's good. I know its purpose is to look for small-scale convection and it can overdo it sometimes under normal circumstances... So being able to tease that out of the throes of a huge rolling ball of convection is remarkable!

Indeed. It can have a good handle on things, at least in near time. Take a look at yesterday's 18z simulation for Significant Tornado Parameter at 14z this morning. I was surprised the SPC didn't bump up the pops a bit after seeing that. It was remarkably accurate. 

stp.JPG

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Looks like it's walking up stairs a bit rather than heading in a steady direction on radar. 

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48 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The 12z HWRF has Dorian slam into the outer banks with a pressure of 947. lol  May have gone with the idea of some kind of RI.

HRRR keeps it offshore on the 21z run so maybe the HWRF will come along soon too.

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5 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

HRRR keeps it offshore on the 21z run so maybe the HWRF will come along soon too.

Hrrr can keep offshore but he keeps getting closer and closer and if there isnt a decent shift soon landfall looks likely.

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10 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Indeed. It can have a good handle on things, at least in near time. Take a look at yesterday's 18z simulation for Significant Tornado Parameter at 14z this morning. I was surprised the SPC didn't bump up the pops a bit after seeing that. It was remarkably accurate. 

stp.JPG

I think people have gotten accustomed to being "NAM'd" which is probably why they took that with a grain of salt. Of course all hell did break loose this morning with TORs flying like mad, including well inland but under a band, so.... :yikes:

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hrrr can keep offshore but he keeps getting closer and closer and if there isnt a decent shift soon landfall looks likely.

 We got a pretty good push a couple of hours ago that produced the NE heading. That helped, but agree a landfall is still likely. Maybe Cape Lookout or Hatteras. Can't rule out something sooner though of course.

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1 hour ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Just that change to NE from NNE at this point might be enough to spare much of downeast NC from eyewall effects. Feels like a big deal. Possibly landfall will miss Cape Fear now and maybe even Cape Lookout. Higher likelyhood of landfall from Ocracoke to Hatteras possible.

The eyewall wont be the issue for us it will be the dry air working in as the center is to our east....this forms a western wind max over the central coastal plains...a lot of models have 70-100 mph winds are 925MB and if enough dry air gets worked in that can mix those down.....but lately even the models have walked that back to a more reasonable period of 50-70 mph winds we shall see if it pans out.

 

 

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7 pm update and pressure is up to 964 mb (everything else the same) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 052257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently measured
sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).

An observation from Myrtle Beach, SC, recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 78.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

Between the sustained winds (even if just minimal TS speed) plus all the rain and other antecedent wet conditions, there will be trees down everywhere.

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If the entire center can get onshore and over the sound it sometimes actually helps them tighten up a bit...Irene hit at 950 MB 85 mph and actually dropped to 949 and held her winds up for hrs over the Pamlico Sound....

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

There is a feed link in the banter thread that I just looked at and it is still going.

Yeah, I think they just stopped it for a minute while they switched to night vision... Or something like that. Thought it was dead too, but it's back up now with a different look.

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8 pm update - winds downgraded to 100 mph (everything else the same) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 052359
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

ETA the 8 pm cone that just issued.

211226_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Just now, ct_yankee said:

Yeah, I think they just stopped it for a minute while they switched to night vision... Or something like that. Thought it was dead too, but it's back up now with a different look.

Ahhh okay.  Yeah they had to adjust the sensitivity to still make out the flag in the pitch dark!  I know they occasionally switch camera angles on that too.

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

Just saw a Washington Post breaking news banner claiming the eye wall has has hit NC at Cape Fear.  Not sure where they are seeing that but... :blink:

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.14.20190905.231020-longrange-ir-825pm-09052019.gif

Well, maybe they heard a met say the tip was just at the edge of the eyewall. My locals met just showed that and pointed it out. The paper maybe was a little over the top on that headline. 

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Just saw a Washington Post breaking news banner claiming the eye wall (they say "the core including the eye wall") has hit NC at Cape Fear.  Not sure where they are seeing that but... :blink:

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.14.20190905.231020-longrange-ir-825pm-09052019.gif

NO eyewall here..

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Just saw a Washington Post breaking news banner claiming the eye wall (they say "the core including the eye wall") has hit NC at Cape Fear.  Not sure where they are seeing that but... :blink:

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.14.20190905.231020-longrange-ir-825pm-09052019.gif

Time machine. 

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