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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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1 pm update - winds/pressure holding but course back to NNE 20 degrees) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051655 
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
hour.

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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2 pm update (no moving even more to the east of NE @ 45 degrees)2-

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 051751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

151958_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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15 hours ago, thess said:

Yeah, but I know you know how the SE forum usually rolls with storms. And we’re in the crosshairs on this! Where’s brick? Where’s that mackerel guy who’s always hilariously sarcastic?

I took my talents to another board for SE weather that has a lot more traffic than the SE forum here these days. 

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88 Knots at the surface in the SW Quadrant on the last recon pass. I'm not sure if it was flagged or not but there were a few readings in the mid to upper 80's. 

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1 minute ago, mob1 said:

88 Knots at the surface in the SW Quadrant on the last recon pass. I'm not sure if it was flagged or not but there were quite a few readings in the mid to upper 80's. 

The storm is around 100mph, not 110 at this point.

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Charleston really lucked out with the timing of the closest approach during low tide. Nowhere near as bad as what was predicted a few days ago.

 

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They are still finding 95kts just above the surface in the SW eyewall. That still makes this a 110MPH storm. Those winds can still possibly mix down if the eyewall ever makes it onshore completely.

recon_NOAA2-4705A-DORIAN_dropsonde24_20190905-1433.png

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2 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Buoy 41004 (41nm SE of Charleston) reported 64.1kts sustained (74mph) gusting to 85.5kts (98mph) in the SW eyewall about 40 minutes ago. 

Had been sitting in the center FOREVER lol.....just had a 66knt sustained pressure bottomed out around 959

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3 pm update - steady as it goes -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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2 hours ago, SluggerWx said:

PDS TOR warning now in NC.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1213 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Western Pender County in southeastern North Carolina...
  Eastern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1212 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Long Creek, 
  or 8 miles south of Burgaw, moving northwest at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. Tornado damage 
           has been confirmed from Porters Neck to Rocky Point with 
           this storm.
 

Anyone else ever recall seeing a PDS Tornado Warning with a hurricane-affiliated tornado? 

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

I took my talents to another board for SE weather that has a lot more traffic than the SE forum here these days. 

I suggest you and your "talents" stay wherever you have gone. In any case, enough of this type of post.

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The EPS is a great tool but the next time a tropical system is threatening the coast, remember this from only 8 days ago. It did pick up on the eventual Northeast turn so I will give it that. 

On 8/28/2019 at 3:58 PM, olafminesaw said:

 

JgM9Fcc.png

 

 

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Based on current trajectory, looks like landfall will occur somewhere between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach. 

running out of time for that landfall :bike:

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If you extrapolate that curve to the northeast just a tad more the center of the eye is going to miss bald head island, and quite possibly the entire NC coast. 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

If you extrapolate that curve to the northeast just a tad more the center of the eye is going to miss bald head island, and quite possibly the entire NC coast. 

bad idea to extrapolate that, trust the models at this range, Morehead City to Rodanthe

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So far here in Leland 4.5 miles west of ILM this has been very much boring.  We have only received 2.4 inches of rain since 7 am yesterday.   No sustained periods of wind.  Average wind since midnight has been 18.7 mph. Highest gust 43.8 mph.   Pressure is 992.  

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The EPS is a great tool but the next time a tropical system is threatening the coast, remember this from only 8 days ago. It did pick up on the eventual Northeast turn so I will give it that. 

 

Uh oh - that is the 'Alabama - Sharpie' track!!!

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5 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

bad idea to extrapolate that, trust the models at this range, Morehead City to Rodanthe

Was just stating if you did, that would be the result. Not gonna take too much of a wobble to the right (like we see with the latest recon data) to cause a miss. Doubt it misses OBX, but it is certainly possible.

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9 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

bad idea to extrapolate that, trust the models at this range, Morehead City to Rodanthe

I realize the intent, but I wish people would stop saying Morehead City. MHX is not on the coast proper, it is inner banks. Atlantic Beach is what folks are looking for there.

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23 minutes ago, mappy said:

running out of time for that landfall :bike:

Sorry, I didn't realize the storm was already past 70W.

And my post about the landfall spot was made when the storm was moving at a different NE degree.

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18 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

If you extrapolate that curve to the northeast just a tad more the center of the eye is going to miss bald head island, and quite possibly the entire NC coast. 

Yes, never understood the confidence in a LF....always looked to recurve parallel to the coast, but we'll see. Still time.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, never understood the confidence in a LF....always looked to recurve parallel to the coast, but we'll see. Still time.

Who F'ing cares if the center doesn't make it onshore for a technical LF if the eyewall does? 

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