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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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9 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

It's the top line on every hurricane headline and it's simple enough that people who know very little about weather can follow.  There are many more important factors than top wind speed, especially a with a long duration storm carrying a formidable surge.  The death and destruction from Katrina, which was only a cat 3 at landfall didn't change this.  If that storm didn't carry the highest alert level, the system stinks IMO.

Yup. Agreed. 

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18 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

It's the top line on every hurricane headline and it's simple enough that people who know very little about weather can follow.  There are many more important factors than top wind speed, especially a with a long duration storm carrying a formidable surge.  The death and destruction from Katrina, which was only a cat 3 at landfall didn't change this.  If that storm didn't carry the highest alert level, the system stinks IMO.

Ike comes to mind with this as well. Beast of a hurricane, rated a Cat 2 at landfall....

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Looks like Wilmington is going to be taking it on the chin for quite awhile. The rain bands seem be back building, so as the they push North new ones are rotating in. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

With all respect, we are all looking at the same data and charts in here. We see that. 

I'm not. I appreciate the pbp.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Looks like Wilmington is going to be taking it on the chin for white awhile. The rain bands seem be back building, so as the they push North new ones are rotating in. 

Yeah, those bands rotating in towards the Wilmington to Jacksonville area look pretty nasty.

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Headed straight for the Wilmington area

Special Marine Warning
AMZ250-051545-
/O.NEW.KILM.MA.W.0099.190905T1531Z-190905T1545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1131 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm...

* Until 1145 AM EDT.

* At 1131 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  waterspouts was located over 10 Mile Rocks, moving northwest at 40
  knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Boats could suffer significant structural
           damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in
           suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
  10 Mile Boxcars, Liberty Ship, Dallas Rock, Billy Murrell Reef,
  Johnny Mercer Pier, Masonboro Sea Buoy, North Masonboro Island,
  Harris Reef, 5 Mile Boxcars and 10 Mile Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for southeastern
North Carolina...and the adjacent coastal waters.

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 7746 3403 7765 3415 7784 3426 7775
      3433 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 130DEG 40KT 3415 7760

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...50KTS

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Tornado Warning
NCC129-141-051630-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0043.190905T1544Z-190905T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1144 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern New Hanover County in southeastern North Carolina...
  Southwestern Pender County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 1230 PM EDT.

* At 1144 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was approaching Figure Eight Island, moving northwest at
  50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bayshore, Porters Neck, Scotts Hill, Ogden, Landfall and Mayfaire
  around 1150 AM EDT.
  Wilmington, Murrayville and Kings Grant around 1155 AM EDT.
  Castle Hayne, Cape Fear Community College North Campus,
  Wrightsboro and Wilmington International Airport around 1200 PM
  EDT.
  Rocky Point and Ashton around 1205 PM EDT.
  Long Creek around 1210 PM EDT.
  Montague and The Borough around 1215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include St.
Helena and Pender Memorial Hospital.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 402 and 416.
 Interstate 140

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

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ETA - the below was corrected by NHC via a tweet with the update to correct the wind speed -

 

Noon update and some interesting changes - winds back up to 115 mph, track has shifted back to 15 degrees from 20 degrees NNE, pressure 958 -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051600
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently
reported a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

An unofficial observing station at Ft Johnson on James Island
recently reported a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 78 mph (126 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

NOAA buoy 41004 just reported a minimum pressure of 959 mb (28.32
inches) very near the middle of the eye of Dorian.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

a 105 cat 2 and a 115 cat 3 isn't going to be that different in the grand scheme of things. so many people get hung up on the category, really quite odd. 

Agreed. Like I said before that others have noted that there is not much of a difference in the grand scheme of things for folks like us. To the general public, I think it does make a difference though. It's also the difference between a major hurricane and non-major. That correlates more to record keeping if anything though

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PDS TOR warning now in NC.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1213 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Western Pender County in southeastern North Carolina...
  Eastern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1212 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Long Creek, 
  or 8 miles south of Burgaw, moving northwest at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. Tornado damage 
           has been confirmed from Porters Neck to Rocky Point with 
           this storm.
 

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18 minutes ago, sctvman said:

69 MPH wind gust at the Charleston airport...

NIIIIICE

 

https://media0.giphy.com/media/pCO5tKdP22RC8/200w.webp?cid=790b7611e11e3889b4e2a9e6aca7be14e363b3e77f56a35e&rid=200w.webp

 

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Agreed. Like I said before that others have noted that there is not much of a difference in the grand scheme of things for folks like us. To the general public, I think it does make a difference though. It's also the difference between a major hurricane and non-major. That correlates more to record keeping if anything though

the general public are idiots. no one pays attention to the actual impacts, just what category it is (or any storm for that matter). hell most don't even know the different between a watch and a warning. 

but there is no difference between a cat 2 at 110 and a cat 3 at 115, its just a designation. and mets and media really need to drive that point home. the impacts are the same regardless of what bin the hurricane falls into. 

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26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Tornado Warning
NCC129-141-051630-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0043.190905T1544Z-190905T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1144 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern New Hanover County in southeastern North Carolina...
  Southwestern Pender County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 1230 PM EDT.


Via WECT: this rotation got confirmed on-the-ground, and there were 911 calls from Bald Eagle Lane in Wilmington related to home damage from it.

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110mph is very generous for this storm basing off of recon and obs, imagine they might be keeping it that high for messaging reasons (so the public doesn’t think the threat is over)... My best guess is closer to 90mph. 

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