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Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Why does everyone shoot these vids in portrait mode? Anyway I agree with the improved IR. A Landfall looks more likely now.

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Based on current trajectory, looks like landfall will occur somewhere between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach. 

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Lots of rotation embedded in that band about to come into Wilmington. 

In the tail end of this one currently, between the city and Carolina Beach.  Hasn't been as bad in Wilmington proper as the band that moved through this morning.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Based on current trajectory, looks like landfall will occur somewhere between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach.

Storm is supposed to turn more toward NE shortly. NHC keeps Dorian offshore until Morehead City area.

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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Storm is supposed to turn more toward NE shortly. NHC keeps Dorian offshore until Morehead City area.

Even with a turn more to the East, landfall at or West of Cape Fear seems reasonably likely.

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This band coming through ,, has NWS Tornado warnings going off like crazy..  yikes! Heavy Rain & lotsa lighting.. 

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It absolutely matters to folks along the eyewall track. The difference in damage between a Cat 1 and Cat 3 is exponential. 

I think this is overstated or at least overly simplified.  Keep in mind there is only a 27% difference in wind force from high end Cat 1 to a low end Cat 3. The high end Cat 1 will produce 2183N of force per square meter (1.229 kg/m3 x  (42.1 m/s)^2) while the low end Cat 3 would produce 2992N per square meter (1.229 kg/m3 x (49.3 m/s)^2).  A large high end Cat 1 is going to produce damaging winds for a longer duration over a larger area than a smaller low end Cat 3... and ultimately cause more overall damage. 

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Dorian starting to look more like a Nor'easter

I dont recall any Nor'easter with this IR presentation...ever

image.png.50858b5a703ba6618f42fa9bd63a6aa1.png

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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Dorian starting to look more like a Nor'easter

Must've seen some pretty mean Nor'easters then because this does not at all look like a Nor'easter 

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well-
defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern
edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast.  The
Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR
surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a
rise in the central pressure.  Based on this, the initial intensity
is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt.  The central pressure of
958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is
currently inside the eye.

Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the
initial motion is now 020/7.  The hurricane is now moving into the
mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is
expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed.
This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h.
After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest
Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic
provinces by 72 h.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous
forecast.

Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and
North Carolina coasts.  Extratropical transition should begin
around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast
to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition.  After
72 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north
Atlantic.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging
winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center.  Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant,
life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 32.5N  79.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 33.5N  78.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 35.1N  75.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 37.2N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 40.1N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 48.0N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 59.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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11 am summary (storm is moving more to the NNE now plus reduced winds but slight pressure drop) -

Quote
546 
WTNT35 KNHC 051454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

091758_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-11am.png

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3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I don't see any reason this would be kept at a Cat 3. I think they downgrade it but still very dangerous obviously as others have alluded to

a 105 cat 2 and a 115 cat 3 isn't going to be that different in the grand scheme of things. so many people get hung up on the category, really quite odd. 

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Remember when this what a tight cored system with hurricane force winds extending out only about 40 miles from the center? Now the eye is 40 miles in diameter. Really telling on the transformation that Dorian has undergone over the past week.

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Just now, mappy said:

more damage pics from *not so quick spin ups*

 

Severe damage but hopefully nobody was around. Not exactly a good idea to ride out a hurricane next to the ocean in a mobile home. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

a 105 cat 2 and a 115 cat 3 isn't going to be that different in the grand scheme of things. so many people get hung up on the category, really quite odd. 

Generally the people who don't have a clue, particularly in this situation. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Severe damage but hopefully nobody was around. Not exactly a good idea to ride out a hurricane next to the ocean in a mobile home. 

thank god we have you to let us know the dos and donts!

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

thank god we have you to let us know the dos and donts!

That's what I'm here for.

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

more damage pics from *not so quick spin ups*

 

My wife was down there at a hotel on that property a couple weeks ago. Gone now.

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I just counted six or seven different couplets showing up offshore on the bands about to rotate into the area just North of Wilmington. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

a 105 cat 2 and a 115 cat 3 isn't going to be that different in the grand scheme of things. so many people get hung up on the category, really quite odd. 

It's the top line on every hurricane headline and it's simple enough that people who know very little about weather can follow.  There are many more important factors than top wind speed, especially a with a long duration storm carrying a formidable surge.  The death and destruction from Katrina, which was only a cat 3 at landfall didn't change this.  If that storm didn't carry the highest alert level, the system stinks IMO.

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1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

It's the top line on every hurricane headline and it's simple enough that people who know very little about weather can follow.  There are many more important factors than top wind speed, especially a with a long duration storm carrying a formidable surge.  The death and destruction from Katrina, which was only a cat 3 at landfall didn't change this.  If that storm didn't carry the highest alert level, the system stinks IMO.

Personally I like the Pacific system better. It's either a Typhoon or a Super Typhoon. Less confusing for the general public. 

The Saffir Simpson scale is a bit outdated and is based purely on max winds which as you said doesn't tell the whole story. 

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