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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Seems pretty likely this thing has dropped back to a Cat 2 or at least will be very shortly based on recon, satellite, and radar. 

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Per local news here, The tornado that hit emerald isle hit a rv park that had about 50 campers, they are stating more than half were heavily damaged, going door to door now. Hopefully people heeded the evacuation orders.

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I wouldn't get caught up in the intensity forecast at this point. Wide swath of winds expanding from the center. This is going to be very impactful for the Carolinas. As we can see, it's already spinning those extra special larger tornadoes that mappy loves. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wouldn't get caught up in the intensity forecast at this point. Wide swath of winds expanding from the center. This is going to be very impactful for the Carolinas. As we can see, it's already spinning those extra special larger tornadoes that mappy loves. 

It absolutely matters to folks along the eyewall track. The difference in damage between a Cat 1 and Cat 3 is exponential. 

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4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wouldn't get caught up in the intensity forecast at this point. Wide swath of winds expanding from the center. This is going to be very impactful for the Carolinas. As we can see, it's already spinning those extra special larger tornadoes that mappy loves. 

tornadoes may be the only thing i can actually contribute to this thread. so don't mind me! :twister:

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It absolutely matters to folks along the eyewall track. The difference in damage between a Cat 1 and Cat 3 is exponential. 

If this storm was actually maintaining strength, had more forward speed, and core was intact, it would mean less of an impact for areas *further* away from the center.

So as this transforms and weakens slightly, winds tend to spread out further from the actual core/center, inland areas, etc.

This is my point. Intensity does matter to those near the center. I am trying to explain that a weakening cane does not necessarily mean a better situation for the majority.

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Looks like the biggest story in the Carolinas is going to be tornadoes and inland flooding. The eyewall looks like it will come very close to shore but dry air has really eroded almost the entire Northern half of the storm overnight. 

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Expect more feeder bands to develop North of the center and rotate Northwest as daytime heating takes over. SPC mesoanalysis is already showing a broad area of >1000 SBCAPE from the SC coast all the way up into the Delmarva. Plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development. 

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IR presentation is actually improving again with deep convection now wrapping completely around the center again. This storm refuses to die.

goes16_ir_05L_201909051142.jpg?3212808

goes16_ir_05L_201909051407.jpg?3212808

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To think we haven’t even gotten the worst gusts and this is as bad as Matthew, perhaps worse. Power has been out on James Island 7 hours. More limbs than Matthew or Irma. 

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I mean, this will likely not be a major hurricane near closest approach or landfall, but based on what I woke up to an hour ago, I find it to be quite a ferocious storms scraping South Carolina. (Of course, I just took a vacation to Myrtle Beach and did fishing near Murrell's Inlet, so that might be adding to my visualization of impact).

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10 am update kept steady state (no changes from 9 am) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051357
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently
reported a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

The official observing site at the airport in North Myrtle Beach,
South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

IR presentation is actually improving again with deep convection now wrapping completely around the center again. This storm refuses to die.

 

 

more up to date

image.thumb.png.b56268e52bf8462188eeccb26d5179a3.png

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