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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Interesting sat depiction and the 8 am update confirmed what I thought I was seeing - course change to NNE (plus slight pressure rise) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 051153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 79.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

 

dorian-20192480716-20192481121-GOES16-ABI-SE-GEOCOLOR-600x600-750am-09052019.gif

091758_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

MW so far -

hurricane-dorian-microwave-24-802am-09052019.gif

I do not buy a major landfall judging by the look of the current core. Looks like it will be 2 or maybe 1. But I think this will actually expand the threat to the Carolinas. Weakening major hurricane = larger wind field?

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Too much latitude has been gained for Dorian to not impact the North Carolina coast significantly.

I think someone posted that ~7 am this morning was make or break and it is just now making a more conducive course correction but if future course changes don't get even more dramatic, it would clip some coast.  The presentation looks almost like it is getting sucked into a flow which is pulling the NE quadrant apart enough to make the eye oblong.

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I do not buy a major landfall judging by the look of the current core. Looks like it will be 2 or maybe 1. But I think this will actually expand the threat to the Carolinas. Weakening major hurricane = larger wind field?

Just tweeted out by Levi -

 

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Really doubt this goes less than 100 mph around the coast. It will weaken some but it’s not like it’s running into some massive trough that will rip it apart.


.

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Based on satellite alone, the NC coast is about to get hammered from surge. Too close to miss at this point. Dorian would have to take on an ENE track to not have significant impacts. Whether that is at Cat 3 or Cat 2 is trivial and semantics at this point. The large circulation is going to impact the shoreline.1062c09f54378960aa8cb012503b17e8.gif&key=c971ab6dd8bd3bf0d46617d535864f7fa439eeb9cb90c1900e8248d799767b79

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Based on satellite alone, the NC coast is about to get hammered from surge. Too close to miss at this point. Dorian would have to take on an ENE track to not have significant impacts. Whether that is at Cat 3 or Cat 2 is trivial and semantics at this point. The large circulation is going to impact the shoreline.1062c09f54378960aa8cb012503b17e8.gif&key=c971ab6dd8bd3bf0d46617d535864f7fa439eeb9cb90c1900e8248d799767b79

 

 

Should ride just up or just inland from ILM to MHX then over the Pamlico Sound and Hatteras...

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A whole lot of tornadoes on the ground this morning.

Many videos on twitter.  

Yet no tornado watch.  Weird.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

People saying this is going to have an impact on the NC coast — I mean no shit. 

Funny. Yesterday you were saying it was basically going to be a cat 1 not making landfall and no big deal. 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yet no tornado watch.  Weird.

Aren’t there two watches up currently? 

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Just now, MUWX said:

Aren’t there two watches up currently? 

They aren't showing for me on SPC website, but the site is slow as heck for me right now.  

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A whole lot of tornadoes on the ground this morning.

Many videos on twitter.  

 

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yet no tornado watch.  Weird.

what? there are two watches for the area. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

These tornados are quite large for a tropical system. Usually you get these  spin ups but these look serious.

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

These tornados are quite large for a tropical system. Usually you get these  spin ups but these look serious.

thanks shaggy, had no idea what kind of tornadoes tropical systems could form. can you tell me more? 

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9 am update (wind/pressure/heading all steady) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051259
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
900 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...RAIN BANDS FROM DORIAN PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

The official observing site at the airport in Charleston, South
Carolina, recently observed sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and
a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

A Coastal Ocean Research Monitoring buoy located about 10 miles (15
km/h) south-southeast of Beaufort, South Carolina, reported
sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 92 mph (148
km/h).

NOAA Buoy 41004, located about 45 miles southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with
a gust to 83 mph (133 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

thanks shaggy, had no idea what kind of tornadoes tropical systems could form. can you tell me more? 

Sheesh, tough crowd

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