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Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Pressure up 2mb from last advisory. Eye is looking a little more disorganized last few frames. Maybe strengthening done?

Seems like shear and continental dry air is starting to already do a number on the western half of Dorian.

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I gotta say, you can nit pick on the models and the NHC forecast with this storm all you want, and it was a complex forecast at times, but I thought it was a helluva job.  10-15 years ago, 185 mph 75 miles off of West Palm 2 million people along the East coast of Florida would've been running

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I gotta say, you can nit pick on the models and the NHC forecast with this storm all you want, and it was a complex forecast at times, but I thought it was a helluva job.  10-15 years ago, 185 mph 75 miles off of West Palm 2 million people along the East coast of Florida would've been running

No doubt. But I am very disappointed in the models with regards to genesis. Neither the GFS, CMC or EURO showed any activity up through the last two weeks of August into Labor Day weekend. We ended up with 4 tropical storms, and a Cat 5 hurricane. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yep sure looks like it. Hoping it will starting turning it ne soon

It's taking the shape of a groundball getting scooped by a mit.  Dorians fate is obvious now.  Time it takes to get scooped is all thats left i.e. flooding concerns along coastal Carolinas which is still very real.  Wind impacts should be minimal from here on out IMHO.

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8 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

No doubt. But I am very disappointed in the models with regards to genesis. Neither the GFS, CMC or EURO showed any activity up through the last two weeks of August into Labor Day weekend. We ended up with 4 tropical storms, and a Cat 5 hurricane. 

Yes, but the models are only as good as the information they have.  70% of the planet is ocean so the only real time data they have to work with over 70% of the planet is Satellite measurements, ship, aircraft and buoy reports.  I think it's pretty amazing we get the output data we do considering more than half of the actual data is missing or its mathematical guesswork.

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After moving a few hundred miles over the last 4-5 days or so, Dorian will really be motoring over the next 5 days, ending up as a remnant low just SE of the southern tip of Greenland.  Some models still have it hitting or skirting Nova Scotia as a full blown hurricane or strong tropical storm, not as a hybrid.

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Dorian looks pretty good considering the state of its stretched and loose vortex not even 24 hours ago by comparison. There are some nice dynamics in the upper levels giving support with enhanced outflow and a jet streak over the Mid-Atlantic region to the NE into the westerlies. However, mid-level 700-400 mb southwesterly flow is inducing dry continental air into the circulation. Once Dorian attains faster N-NE to NE motion with the steering flow, that inpinging may abate enough for divergence to allow some more temporary intensification. Much of the core is over the Gulf Stream, but I stress it might strengthen because internal core structure would need to continue tightening the vortex, which takes a lot more latent heat energy forcing than is typical for a tropical cyclone with a smaller vortex, and Dorian is now a large tropical cyclone and circulation.

 

If I had to guess, there may still be some more slight intensification as Dorian gains faster motion before shear infringes and does its work. Considering the large and strong windfield, if it does manage to make a full landfall in Eastern NC, there likely will be a significant storm surge event. Hopefully the  northeastern eyewall remains offshore of the barriers and estuaries.c1113b1ff4da42ffdecb0c9b0ca98dd6.gif

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I'm 68 miles NNW from morehead city. If the center passes over MHX and cape lookout with the size of that eye I should only be 30 to 40 miles from the eyewall maybe? Looking at gusts to 65 per my TS warnings. Track, windfield and any wind max like a lot of models show are all going to have to come together  for this to be a big storm this far inland.

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1 hour ago, Animal said:

With the eyeball that near... must be getting wind gust over 100 mph

Don't think there have been any gusts to hurricane force yet, probably up to 60+ last hour, gust to 58 mph in Hilton Head. KCHS 54 mph gust last hour and they are a bit inland.

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I am about 25 miles from the coast (Folly Beach), 14 miles to Charleston and we are getting sustained winds around 32 with a gust up to 54 at KCHS just a few miles from us.. Power has been flickering off and on for the last hour with about 10 minutes on generator. Tornado warning just went off for Myrtle Beach near Briarcliff Acres and Hwy 31. A waterspout is offshore, picked up by Wilmington radar.

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We have three separate tornado warnings for Myrtle Beach right now. The weakest of the three was coming right at our house but a decent gust of wind could end up being the tornado going by 

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Just to add the 4 am update - pretty much unchanged since the pressure increase reported in the midnight update -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 050758
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...RAINBANDS FROM DORIAN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST FROM GEORGIA
TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (90 km/h)
was recently reported at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...330 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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And now at

Quote
659 
WTNT35 KNHC 050850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

he 5 am update - Dorian has increased speed back up to 8 mph -

 

034215_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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It is within the push and increase in forward motion to the NNE to NE that I am most concerned that Dorian might actually intensify. Per current atmospheric influence and dynamics, they are somewhat in check until Dorian speeds up. Once the core is moving at a fairly good pace, there will be a window of latent heat influx with convergence below in the low levels compared to divergence aloft before shear supercedes and impacts Dorian negatively. That window will occur prior to possible landfall or land interaction. Though a major hurricane landfall is not forecasted, it will be a play between forward motion gained and atmospheric dynamics tomorrow. The real possibility of major hurricane landfall lies within that narrow window.

 

 

 

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6 am update - no change (still on course to the N 10 degrees, wind/pressure/speed holding). AF309 is just arriving over the northern FL peninsula and will probably approach Dorian from the SW.

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 050956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
600 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HEAVY SQUALLS BEGINNING TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

A wind gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) was recently reported at Federal
Point, just south of Kure Beach, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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7 am update (speed back up to 8 mph and all other conditions are steady) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 050919 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  48...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected rainfall statement

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

AF309 is approaching the eye at post time.

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