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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Also...a slight eastern component now to the movement which is good news.

Was just going to say the same.  Clearly evident on radar and official in the latest NHC update.

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Was just going to say the same.  Clearly evident on radar and official in the latest NHC update.

More than likely a wobble


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I'm trying to figure out if my eyes on deceiving me. My radar loop looks like the eye is contracting. My rough measurements are:

 

8:30pm EST: ~26.9 mile diameter

11pm EST: ~25.4 mile diamter

 

Not much difference, but a contracting eye would indicate strengthening.

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The overall motion seems to be nearly due N. Maybe a tick east, no real west component or even "wobbles". ;/

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2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

From NHC

 

210 
URNT12 KWBC 042349
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL052019
A. 04/23:22:53Z
B. 30.67 deg N 079.70 deg W
C. 700 MB 2755 m
D. 959 mb
E. 240 deg 5 kt
F. CLOSED WALL
G. C47
H. 83 kt
I. 048 deg 24 nm 23:17:01Z
J. 150 deg 106 kt
K. 050 deg 30 nm 23:15:30Z
L. 93 kt
M. 239 deg 25 nm 23:28:47Z
N. 336 deg 101 kt
O. 239 deg 29 nm 23:29:42Z
P. 12 C / 3055 m
Q. 16 C / 3055 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 4405A DORIAN OB 20
SUR PRESS FROM DROPSONDE
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 050 / 30 NM 23:15:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 036 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

 

9 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I'm trying to figure out if my eyes on deceiving me. My radar loop looks like the eye is contracting. My rough measurements are:

 

8:30pm EST: ~26.9 mile diameter

11pm EST: ~25.4 mile diamter

 

Not much difference, but a contracting eye would indicate strengthening.

seems way off

G. Eye shape/orientation/diameter

 

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Pressure has crept up a bit. Lowest recon could find was 957. 93 knot winds in SE quadrant.

And yes, I’ll eat crow. Didn’t expect it to strengthen any more.

That said, I’d be surprised if this wasn’t short lived.

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1 hour ago, thess said:

There aren’t even many people viewing this thread. Got some theories, one is that people have disaster fatigue, another is that people are just stepping away from social media since everything has gone to shit online. Being a non-met lurker for years here, it was always my experience that not much discussion means not much weather impact was likely. But this does feel feel different. Maybe because of so many storms since 2016 (I.e. fatigue)? The last few hurricane seasons kind of blur together for me at this point.

Even the usually lively SE subforum is getting minimal posts. 

I lost interest when it stalled and it was apparent it wouldn't hit FL. Thought any LF at that point would be cat 2 at most and still do.

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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Pressure has crept up a bit. Lowest recon could find was 957. 93 knot winds in SE quadrant.

And yes, I’ll eat crow. Didn’t expect it to strengthen any more.

That said, I’d be surprised if this wasn’t short lived.

I think most expected a general weakening with some fluctuations. Seems right.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still doubt another LF, but its possible. Looks healthy.

This storm has proven unpredictable so who knows.  But I would lean towards an OBX landfall vs no landfall.  

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still doubt another LF, but its possible. Looks healthy.

Does it really matter if it doesn't technically make landfall which it most likely will in outer banks. The Carolina coast is going to get the business regardless. 

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im not convinced the eastern motion will continue short term.  i truly try to refrain from analyzing wobbles, and like to see several frames and look at the entire storm as well as the center to get a feel.  i feel like there has been a subtle westerly component for a good 8 frames on the 96 goes IR loop.  checking radar, i'm not sure it's insignificant.  there was some model support for a final nudge west before the official recurve really got underway.  anyone else see this?

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-14-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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Seems like intensification will have to wait a little more so Dorian can mix out some of this dry air. It might have time for a last push before things get a little dicier tomorrow afternoon,

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Seems like intensification will have to wait a little more so Dorian can mix out some of this dry air. It might have time for a last push before things get a little dicier tomorrow afternoon,

Diurnal Max at sunrise will be its last chance

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Well about that...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Quoting without the pic so it's a little easier on people scrolling... I'd be a little careful with these center fixes when the eye is 30 minutes wide. Personally I would call the motion about due north right now; its tough to judge because of how many little indentations and creases the eyewall has.

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