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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think that might have happened after the update!  103 kts!!!  (119 mph)

Wow, it's improved significantly. Looking way better than 7 hours ago when it was open NW

xR2jawR.png

 

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From NHC

 

210 
URNT12 KWBC 042349
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL052019
A. 04/23:22:53Z
B. 30.67 deg N 079.70 deg W
C. 700 MB 2755 m
D. 959 mb
E. 240 deg 5 kt
F. CLOSED WALL
G. C47
H. 83 kt
I. 048 deg 24 nm 23:17:01Z
J. 150 deg 106 kt
K. 050 deg 30 nm 23:15:30Z
L. 93 kt
M. 239 deg 25 nm 23:28:47Z
N. 336 deg 101 kt
O. 239 deg 29 nm 23:29:42Z
P. 12 C / 3055 m
Q. 16 C / 3055 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 4405A DORIAN OB 20
SUR PRESS FROM DROPSONDE
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 050 / 30 NM 23:15:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 036 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

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9 pm update kept the winds the same but lowered the pressure to 958 (they may be waiting for the incoming recon to confirm some more stuff)...

BUT storm is now moving N.  First course change in many hours.

Quote
137 
WTNT65 KNHC 050058
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A Weatherflow site at Calibogue Sound, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 37 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).
An observation at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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The core is expanded, but looking a lot more impressive than I thought it would.  I was expecting Irene or Florence.

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

The core is expanded, but looking a lot more impressive than I thought it would.  I was expecting Irene or Florence.

Yeah me too, figured this was gonna be Irene part duex though without the crawling speed....now not so sure....if that northern side keeps it up he might make 125 again....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Yeah me too, figured this was gonna be Irene part duex though without the crawling speed....now not so sure....if that northern side keeps it up he might make 125 again....

If NHC allows it. :violin:

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From NHC
 
210 URNT12 KWBC 042349VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL052019A. 04/23:22:53ZB. 30.67 deg N 079.70 deg WC. 700 MB 2755 mD. 959 mbE. 240 deg 5 ktF. CLOSED WALLG. C47H. 83 ktI. 048 deg 24 nm 23:17:01ZJ. 150 deg 106 ktK. 050 deg 30 nm 23:15:30ZL. 93 ktM. 239 deg 25 nm 23:28:47ZN. 336 deg 101 ktO. 239 deg 29 nm 23:29:42ZP. 12 C / 3055 mQ. 16 C / 3055 mR. 12 C / NAS. 12345 / 7T. 0.01 / 2 nmU. NOAA2 4405A DORIAN OB 20SUR PRESS FROM DROPSONDEMAX FL WIND 106 KT 050 / 30 NM 23:15:30ZMAX FL TEMP 16 C 036 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR


106 knots is 121/122 mph. That’s impressive.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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AF307-Mission#45

Eye:

012400 3057N 07948W 6966 02784 9554 +169 +124 024033 036 028 003 00
012430 3056N 07946W 6965 02779 9549 +167 +123 017030 033 024 002 03
012500 3055N 07944W 6969 02767 9543 +166 +128 021018 028 016 003 00
012530 3055N 07942W 6969 02763 9532 +173 +124 046011 013 014 004 03
012600 3054N 07941W 6967 02762 9533 +167 +125 036007 010 014 003 03
012630 3052N 07939W 6970 02760 9543 +159 +129 350001 006 009 003 00
012700 3052N 07937W 6969 02760 9545 +155 +131 219006 009 008 001 00
012730 3051N 07936W 6958 02776 9549 +152 +138 222013 014 009 002 00
012800 3049N 07934W 6968 02763 9555 +149 +135 217017 017 009 002 00

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This has to be a Cat 3 again.  Maybe NHC wants to see this be sustained for an hour or two and not just some pulse?

 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This has to be a Cat 3 again.  Maybe NHC wants to see this be sustained for an hour or two and not just some pulse?

 

I was thinking they were trying to get confirmation data from AF307 that just got in there now. NOAA2 has been getting enough individual readings as far as I can tell but they probably want a confirm.

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You could see this coming earlier today. Combo of gulf stream and UL ventilation from the incoming trough. Think the window closes around 7am. After that shear and landmass will prob start to weaken it or at least level off. 

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I thought it was NNW the past few advisories is why I said that. IR is improving markedly too.

I had posted the 9 pm one earlier in the thread (10 pm is out now).  Here is the 9 pm when it shifted to the N -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A Weatherflow site at Calibogue Sound, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 37 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).
An observation at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

 

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10 pm update  -  pressure down to 955.  Still moving N but they kept the 110 mph.

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 050154
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAIN BANDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA
COASTS WELL AHEAD OF DORIAN...

A buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently measured sustained winds of
47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h).
An observation Hilton Head, South Carolina, recently measured
sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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