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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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3 minutes ago, gakmsg said:

wondering if the extension of the hurricane warning is and update or a graphics issue - not seeing it in our local advisory.

They have it going as far north as just below the VA/NC border (e.g., Morehead City) but not further north at this time.

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6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

They have it going as far north as just below the VA/NC border (e.g., Morehead City) but not further north at this time.

Thanks... this graphic also has advisories further up the Chesapeake as well....and the Red over VAB as small as it looks, covers a million people.

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2 hours ago, Hazey said:

Nick (OSUmet) would probably be the one to answer that questing regarding pressures that low but I know I haven't heard of any up this way. Maybe this will be a first and my property will be trashed. I guess will see.

West trends today are a bit more concerning for you. The slow down in modeling over the past day or so has allower for more riding to develop in the central Atlantic over me and to the east. 

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Weve generally seen this over the past few years where large hurricanes undergoing et transiton at higher latitudes have unrealistically low pressure. At least the new gfs seems much more realistic with those. 

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On the west coast of Florida on Clearwater Beach, this afternoon has been the peak of this storm. We have had a steady 25 to 29 mph winds with a few gusts over 32 mph today since about noon. We are a couple hundred miles away from the eye in the southwest quadrant, but feel the cyclone even here. It's not a big deal, but noticeable for sure.

image.thumb.png.486bdfd6eea9731480178356450887eb.png

The surf is kicking up, but nothing like the east coast of Florida.

Here is a link to our live beach cam:

Clearwater Beach Live Webcam in HD

If you check out the cam, we are setting up for a beautiful sunset again tonight.

:)

Also notice the beach is mostly deserted. Many visitors cancelled last week 5 to 6 days out with all the media attention, but it has been gorgeous here all weekend. Today is the peak of Dorian effects.

 

 

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Latest recon pass would seem to indicate that Dorian *may* have reached Cat 3 strength again. Max FL winds ~115kts... SFMR winds, however are lagging behind at ~90kts. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall was relatively impressive though with lowest 150mb averaging out at 105kt.

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They have it going as far north as just below the VA/NC border (e.g., Morehead City) but not further north at this time.

MHX is nowhere near the VA/NC border. Not by a long shot. About 3.5-4 hours south of the border. I’m just south of the border in ECG. That’s just below the border.
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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


MHX is nowhere near the VA/NC border. Not by a long shot. About 3.5-4 hours south of the border. I’m just south of the border in ECG. That’s just below the border.

I was trying to point-and-click my way up the coast on the NWS site and Hurricane Warnings (including out in the ocean) are going all the way up even past the NC/VA border.

wakefield-va-point-and-click-dorian-09042019.PNG

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7 pm update pretty much the same as the 6 pm and still moving NNW -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 042257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN LASHING THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 49 mph (79 km/h).

An observation at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:
This measurement by recon...

215800 3042N 07958W 7519 02164 9539 +194 //// 034042 044 045 000 01

Other measurements alongside it were flagged and it doesn't match the rest of the HDOB. I wouldn't put too much stock in it:
 

886
URNT15 KWBC 042206
NOAA2 4405A DORIAN HDOB 14 20190904
215700 3044N 08002W 7518 02183 9620 +178 //// 027061 063 081 007 05
215730 3043N 08000W 7516 02176 9572 +189 //// 029052 056 053 000 01
215800 3042N 07958W 7519 02164 9539 +194 //// 034042 044 045 000 01
215830 3041N 07956W 7519 02156 9578 +196 //// 030033 035 038 000 05
215900 3040N 07954W 7518 02153 9590 +197 +151 025024 027 031 000 03
215930 3039N 07952W 7516 02154 9588 +195 +154 025016 018 025 000 00
220000 3038N 07950W 7526 02141 9588 +193 +156 032011 013 020 000 00
220030 3037N 07948W 7514 02153 9589 +188 +164 032008 009 015 002 03
220100 3036N 07946W 7518 02146 9587 +189 +162 004005 006 012 001 03
220130 3036N 07943W 7524 02141 9589 +186 +158 173002 003 /// /// 03
220200 3036N 07941W 7520 02144 9590 +184 +159 209005 006 012 000 03
220230 3035N 07939W 7518 02147 9593 +181 +161 209008 009 013 001 00
220300 3034N 07937W 7517 02149 9592 +184 +163 209013 015 016 001 00
220330 3033N 07935W 7517 02152 9595 +184 +163 208018 021 021 001 00
220400 3032N 07933W 7519 02150 9596 +186 +158 209025 026 024 000 03
220430 3031N 07931W 7518 02156 9597 +189 +158 204028 029 027 001 03
220500 3030N 07929W 7519 02161 9604 +186 +161 206036 040 030 001 00
220530 3029N 07927W 7518 02168 9609 +190 +160 206045 047 039 002 00
220600 3028N 07925W 7519 02177 9620 +188 +162 204054 055 044 001 00
220630 3027N 07923W 7519 02184 9628 +189 +165 201059 062 049 001 00
$$
;

 

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Just now, Random Chaos said:

Those flags are for wind measurement, not pressure.

Yes and that HDOB indicates a 958mb or so pressure, not a 953mb pressure as that single observation removed from its surrounding context indicates.

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3 minutes ago, aperson said:

Yes and that HDOB indicates a 958mb or so pressure, not a 953mb pressure as that single observation removed from its surrounding context indicates.

Even still, 958 is another 3mb drop

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8pm NHC update and they went with the 959 mb.

Quote
202 
WTNT35 KNHC 042349
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE THREATHENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.31 INCHES

 

212400_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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SW to NE pass this time (in eye now, this is from the SW eyewall)

001330 3028N 08005W 7484 02290 9719 +158 //// 325101 105 091 036 01
001400 3029N 08004W 7303 02455 9675 +149 //// 336094 110 099 015 01
001430 3030N 08002W 7388 02346 9638 +175 +163 325074 077 098 011 00
001500 3031N 08000W 7448 02260 9631 +169 +167 328069 071 091 006 00

 

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