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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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This weenie crap going on back and forth is annoying for those trying to learn about this storm (especially here in CHS). Going back to wxtwitter - which is saying a lot given the junk on there but at least there are actual mets posting and not stupid banter in this thread that has completely derailed what is usually legitimate and helpful, insightful information.


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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

One thing that may be happening to Dorian (aside from increased shear and dry air as it makes its way north), is that it should begin to encounter shallower waters outside of the Gulf Stream. The Charleston Bump and adjacent Blake Ridge (see image below) will lead to shallower warm water.

Image result for continental shelf map united states south carolina

The gulf stream location is well west of the Blake Ridge and up against the shelf

image.png.917937791aadd0657573c6fdb5259a97.png

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

One thing that may be happening to Dorian (aside from increased shear and dry air as it makes its way north), is that it should begin to encounter shallower waters outside of the Gulf Stream. The Charleston Bump and adjacent Blake Ridge (see image below) will lead to shallower warm water.

Image result for continental shelf map united states south carolina

Just a note: those are very deep waters , somewhat on the EAST side of the Gulf Stream.. 

The Gulf stream comes with-in 60~70 miles of the Coast here.. example the Frying Pan Tower is IN the GS.. (45 miles) ..

COASTAL Water temps are actually higher WEST of the GS on the  shelf 0' to 100' deep..  82.0 F. and higher in places.. 

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13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

One thing that may be happening to Dorian (aside from increased shear and dry air as it makes its way north), is that it should begin to encounter shallower waters outside of the Gulf Stream. The Charleston Bump and adjacent Blake Ridge (see image below) will lead to a much shallower fuel source.

Image result for continental shelf map united states south carolina

We all understand!  The storm is going to dissipate and no one on the east coast has anything to worry about.  It’s been the same info from you for 3 days.  I even stopped looking at the NHC as you have more knowledge.  I’m sure this will get removed by a mod but I have no idea why yours remain.  Impacts should be minimum and I’d be happy with nothing.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It's called extra tropical transition. Once it merges with the Westerlies it could deepen again. I don't know why so many people on here don't know this already.

It could deepen but there is no chance in hell it goes down to 937mb, especially since it is grossly overdoing the deepening tonight. It is a bad model projection.

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2 minutes ago, winterymix said:

In the last couple of frames, the eye center seems to slip NNE very slightly.

You are better off with the radar for determining that.

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15 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Dorian persists against encroaching dryer continental air mass and a push east. GOES-16 mid-level water vapor just now.

Dorian.jpg

Most of that dry air is above 700mb. The dewpoint is currently in the mid 70's up here the NYC area.

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Another recon is on its way in (NOAA2).  Looks like it's going in from the SW.  The 4 pm update went with the earlier 962 mb -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 041956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAINBANDS OF DORIAN CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (82 km/h).

The most recent minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane was 962 mb (28.41 inches).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It could deepen but there is no chance in hell it goes down to 937mb, especially since it is grossly overdoing the deepening tonight. It is a bad model projection.

Agreed that it's overdone. 

It's not the only model that deepens Dorian tonight though.

Recon has been finding a slowly deepening storm all afternoon. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Agreed that it's overdone. 

It's not the only model that deepens Dorian tonight though.

Recon has been finding a slowly deepening storm all afternoon. 

Slowly deepening, not 20 mb though. Obviously the Euro is overdoing it. 

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Just now, Stebo said:

Slowly deepening, not 20 mb though. Obviously the Euro is overdoing it. 

We'll see what happens. The radar out of Jacksonville shows a nearly closed eyewall. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

We'll see what happens. The radar out of Jacksonville shows a nearly closed eyewall. 

950mb tonight at the strongest is my call. No way it drops 20mb.

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I'll have to take that back about the ICON - the 5 pm update puts the ICON init right on the money!  Winds are back up to 110 mph and pressure down to 961 mb plus it slowed to 8 mph.

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 042056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

 

152824_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-5pm.png

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Agreed that it's overdone. 
It's not the only model that deepens Dorian tonight though.
Recon has been finding a slowly deepening storm all afternoon. 
If the vortices can consolidate, Dorian can pretty quickly begin to ramp up

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Perhaps this is only short term, but the eye of Dorian has gotten notably more symmetric and circular the past hour. 

Doesn't have too much more to go until it’s at Cat 3 intensity again - and I’d expect it to on the basis of the structural improvements we’ve seen throughout today - in addition to its location over the Gulf Stream overnight on its approach to the Carolinas.

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Think it's probably a major again.

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       

                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  04 SEP 2019    Time :   202015 UTC
      Lat :   30:32:59 N     Lon :   79:37:47 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

 Center Temp : +12.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

 Scene Type : LARGE EYE  

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  142nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES16 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.9 degrees 

05LP.GIF

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15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I'll have to take that back about the ICON - the 5 pm update puts the ICON init right on the money!  Winds are back up to 110 mph and pressure down to 961 mb plus it slowed to 8 mph.

 

152824_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-5pm.png

wondering if the extension of the hurricane warning is an update or a graphics issue - not seeing it in our local advisory.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Think it's probably a major again.

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       

                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  04 SEP 2019    Time :   202015 UTC
      Lat :   30:32:59 N     Lon :   79:37:47 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

 Center Temp : +12.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

 Scene Type : LARGE EYE  

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  142nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES16 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.9 degrees 

05LP.GIF

NHC disagrees. 

Eye still open to NW as per latest recon

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