• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

Recommended Posts

Haven't looked at Dorian in a bit and I would say it is holding on very well considering the changes it has gone under.  Not looking at it and then coming back to it, the form looks nice.  Windfield has expanded.  Strong bands on the outer edges.  I don't think it is going to die out that easy.  And the stronger rain bands and convection are occurring on the shore side and not the ocean side (like yesterday).

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing chatter about not being shocked if he gets up to 110-115mph at least for a period. Just mentions it on tv so we will see. I bring it up because of the previous post about the cat 4 model. I know 110-115 isnt a cat 4, but makes me wonder. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of 2pm -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 041758 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 45A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...

CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM JACKSONVILLE

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

 

152824_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Per the latest advisory, hurricane force winds now extend out up to 70 miles and tropical storm winds 175 miles from the center. The center doesn't need to make landfall to cause major impacts, especially in the Carolina low country.

And with Charleston forecast to get a foot or more of rain flooding even without the surge is an issue. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HKY_WX said:

12z Euro drops it 14mb's from now through early morning tomorrow as it approaches the SC coastline.

Wow...that's a good little jump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone have the latest SHIPS guidance? Tried to find it myself but couldn't. I believe yesterday it showed a relatively high chance of RI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

12z Euro drops it 14mb's from now through early morning tomorrow as it approaches the SC coastline.

The worst of it misses Charleston, but hits Wilmington pretty good (although not quite as strong at that point) 130 mph gusts just offshore as it passes Charleston

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, olafminesaw said:

The worst of it misses Charleston, but hits Wilmington pretty good (although not quite as strong at that point) 130 mph gusts just offshore as it passes Charleston

True but we're talking 50 miles. Crazy close and obviously worth watching this and whether it turns NE in time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The worst of it misses Charleston, but hits Wilmington pretty good (although not quite as strong at that point) 130 mph gusts just offshore as it passes Charleston

Charleston is going to be in a Easterly and then Southeasterly flow for a long time. That's going to really pile up water into a very flood prone area. Think the storm surge there could break the record. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Anyone have the latest SHIPS guidance? Tried to find it myself but couldn't. I believe yesterday it showed a relatively high chance of RI.

This???

 

tr10I.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro 12z.png

That's almost 20mb deeper than it is currently.   I'm a tad skeptical of that type of deepening, but I suppose anything is possible?   We'll know in about 17 hours or so if this is true? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That's almost 20mb deeper than it is currently.   I'm a tad skeptical of that type of deepening, but I suppose anything is possible?   We'll know in about 17 hours or so if this is true? 

Well, it initialized it almost 10mb deeper than it is right now, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

Lol.. it also takes it down to 936 as it passes Cape Cod

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you look along HWY 17 in coastal SC/NC, you can almost pick out where the shear and dry air really pick up. Rain and moisture look like they hit a brick wall. Can also see it on IR.

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a hunch there is no actual landfall here. I know at least up in New England storms like to bend east at the last minute. Obviously would be nicer if the eyewall misses the coast not sure it stays that far off though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Well, it initialized it almost 10mb deeper than it is right now, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Add the 10 back in, it is 954... Possible since recon just found a 960.5mb pressure (too bad it and a bunch of others were flagged...

184400 3015N 07938W 6966 02808 9605 +149 +068 218009 011 /// /// 03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My parents live on the salt run in St. Augustine, FL right next to Anastasia State Park and the impact there is relatively minor. They were getting TS force winds and there was very high surf probably approaching 20 Feet on the ocean side and impacting the dunes but not completely topping the dunes. The water rose to the level of their dock but did not top the dock. For reference, Hurricane Matthew and Irma had water rise above the level of their dock with Matthew completely destroying it. For Irma and Dorian they prepped the dock and it seems to have helped spare them any damage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

The euro also gets Dorian down to 937mb near 40n so there's that. I'll file that under not happening.

It's called extra tropical transition. Once it merges with the Westerlies it could deepen again. I don't know why so many people on here don't know this already.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

My parents live on the salt run in St. Augustine, FL right next to Anastasia State Park and the impact there is relatively minor. They were getting TS force winds and there was very high surf probably approaching 20 Feet on the ocean side and impacting the dunes but not completely topping the dunes. The water rose to the level of their dock but did not top the dock. For reference, Hurricane Matthew and Irma had water rise above the level of their dock with Matthew completely destroying it. For Irma and Dorian they prepped the dock and it seems to have helped spare them any damage.

I believe both Irma and Matthew passed much closer to that part of FL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Too bad? Are you rooting for this to deepen?

Can speak for the poster, but too bad the data is questionable for forecast and archival purposes. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If you look along HWY 17 in coastal SC/NC, you can almost pick out where the shear and dry air really pick up. Rain and moisture looks like it hits a brick wall.

I'm not so sure about this statement.. It's literally raining Heavy down pours ATM.. Here in Wilm..

We've gotten a couple inches since this Morning..

The ground is saturated.. 10~15 inches of "Down-pours" does NOT bode well,, Here &  around the "Low Country"..

We have been getting (scattered) Heavy Down pours around the area(s) since Saturday Evening..

In addition We have just gotten past the peak, of King Tides .. They are STILL quite high..

Flooding WILL be a Issue here & around the "Low Country".. 

NOT Florence nor Floyd bad, though It's possible We'll face significant flooding Issues..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's called extra tropical transition. Once it merges with the Westerlies it could deepen again. I don't know why so many people on here don't know this already.

Just to add - the "S" word was 940 at landfall and was extra-tropical (I know I'm not allowed to say its name). :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's called extra tropical transition. Once it merges with the Westerlies it could deepen again. I don't know why so many people on here don't know this already.

LOL, I am fully aware of this living where I do. Typical that these get a shot in the arm baroclonic booster juice but 937mb?. That is extreme.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hazey said:

LOL, I am fully aware of this living where I do. Typical that these get a shot in the arm baroclonic booster juice but 937mb?. That is extreme.

937mb is rivaling Sandy. I would take care around the property and make sure your trees are in order if you are a home owner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.