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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Dorian closing in on the point of no return
 

It's almost spot on track at this moment.  I think the timing of the northeast turn will be more crucial. If that's delayed by an hour or two then we might end up with something the nested NAM is spitting out, putting CHS in the eyewall. I only reference the NAM for illustrative purposes...

NAM1.JPG

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1 pm update and they went with that 963 from dropsonde #10 (plus Jacksonville is getting raked with 40+ mph sustained winds) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 041658
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...

A WeatherFlow station in Jacksonville recently reported sustained
winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (88 km/h).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 963 mb (28.44 inches).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12Z HWRF. Looks like several landfalls.

W3D27XF.gif

 

Yeah, saw that.  Rainfall amounts will be an issue if it sticks that close to the coast.   Not a strong storm but that depiction will still cause a lot of headaches.

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36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Dorian closing in on the point of no return
 

 

Been plenty of storms that hung a hard right at the last moment over the years. I don't think there's a point of no return until it makes landfall.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like recon just got 962.3 on the last pass.

Decent little jog west since the last fix too. Here's some motion towards particular points of interest if anyone cares. I did apparently...

Savannah is a heading of 330°, Charleston is 356°, Cape Fear is 21°, Cape Lookout is 30° and Cape Hatteras is 33°.

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I think it's pretty much out of the upwelled waters now and being ventilated by the incoming trough. The core/eyewall has started to reform in the past couple hours. It may have a window this afternoon/evening where we see continued organization. Some of the intensity forecasts do show this.

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Dorian is slowly starting to look healthier of satellite.  I think we get a period of intensification in the next 12 hours, albeit slight.

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Not sure I believe it, but the 12z HMON also deepens Dorian maxing out at 113kts or so, which would make it a borderline CAT 4 by late tonight.

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HMON restrengthens Dorian back to near Cat 4 intensity before slamming it into the SC coast.    

Edit: beat me to it 

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

HMON restrengthens Dorian back to near Cat 4 intensity before slamming it into the SC coast.    

Edit: beat me to it 

You should clarify that it weakens it rapidly prior to landfall in SC. It doesn’t landfall at that strength.

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You should clarify that it weakens it rapidly prior to landfall in SC. It doesn’t landfall at that strength.

Cat 1, literally a borderline with 64.5kt winds.

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The storm weakens as it's landfalling thanks to hitting the shallow shelf waters of the Carolinas combined with land interaction. I certainly wouldn't take it verbatim either way.

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Well, I know we aren’t talking about a major difference between 90mph and 100mph but the track is back to cat 2 on NC coast. I supposed based on the modeling and him lapping up all that yummy water. Able to hold his own I guess. Got a notification about via local news. 

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Per the latest advisory, hurricane force winds now extend out up to 70 miles and tropical storm winds 175 miles from the center. The center doesn't need to make landfall to cause major impacts, especially in the Carolina low country.

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