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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Also looks like they found around 100kts FL Wind in the Southeast quadrant. Probably supports maintaining intensity at 11AM.

recon_AF304-4305A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Still looking at a 90-95kt storm based on recon.

If you look at the flight path, the strongest winds were displaced well Southeast of the center. 

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11AM update maintains intensity and pressure. Moving now at 335 degrees which is still West of North.

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92kts well Southeast of the center. Also back up to ~120kts or so in several areas just above the surface. I believe that is a big increase over the last recon. 

recon_AF304-4305A-DORIAN_dropsonde5_20190904-1432.png

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As of 11 am update, Dorian has sped up to 9 mph -

Quote
220 
WTNT35 KNHC 041457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

 

092607_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-11am.png

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Watching the GOES and seeing the convection wrapping around. Lots of chatter online about it from the public and some mets. Someone in twitter asked Brad P about it and he said ERCs are gonna happen anymore and the eye will get bigger and bigger and more ragged. Others are saying it’s closing off and tightening as well as looking more healthy. I do not know who to follow on this. Seeing contradicting viewpoints. 

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7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

New GFS coming in a good deal east. Stays ~40 miles off NC/SC coasts.

how come no one noted the NAM was further west?

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Dorian has markedly improved this morning on IR... deep convection seems to be firing around most of the center, and the eye is definitely wrapping up a bit more.

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Dorian has markedly improved this morning on IR... deep convection seems to be firing around most of the center, and the eye is definitely wrapping up a bit more.

That awful dry slot around the eye where the core had eroded is almost gone. 

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Dorian has markedly improved this morning on IR... deep convection seems to be firing around most of the center, and the eye is definitely wrapping up a bit more.

I think the fact that it’s finally moving again and getting off its own cold pool is helping allot. I have seen high end typhoons upwell themselves down to tropical storms despite good atmospheric conditions, after stalling.

As long as the center stays off the continental shelf it has plenty of deep warm Gulf Stream waters to work with

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think the fact that it’s finally moving again and getting off its own cold pool is helping allot. I have seen high end typhoons upwell themselves down to tropical storms despite good atmospheric conditions, after stalling.

As long as the center stays off the continental shelf it has plenty of deep warm Gulf Stream waters to work with

looks like shear should increase later today and into tonight however. 

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Recon is heading in for another center pass, this time from a NE to SW pass. That should sample the strong convection in the Southwest quadrant. 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

looks like shear should increase later today and into tonight however. 

For at least the next 24 hours the shear will remain perpendicular to the track, or parallel to the outflow, actually enhancing it.  

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Just now, hlcater said:

looks like shear should increase later today and into tonight however. 

Most likely just a brief period of reorganization. How close it comes to the coast will determine wether this is still a cane or not when it exits the Outer Banks 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Most likely just a brief period of reorganization. How close it comes to the coast will determine wether this is still a cane or not when it exits the Outer Banks 

I'm honestly surprised it did at all. I thought it was done when it started to get gutted from the inside out. Storms usually dont recover from that, or at least take a super long time to.

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

I'm honestly surprised it did at all. I thought it was done when it started to get gutted from the inside out. Storms usually dont recover from that, or at least take a super long time to.

Agreed. I thought for sure it was only down from there. But the waters off the SE coast are well above normal. We’ll see if it’s just a blip 

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15 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm honestly surprised it did at all. I thought it was done when it started to get gutted from the inside out. Storms usually dont recover from that, or at least take a super long time to.

Same here.  I’ll always remember how, against all professional expectations, we watched Irene never rebuild her hollowed-out core as she climbed the coast in 2011.

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Noon update and no change - steady state -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 041555
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Also looking at the WV imagery, there doesn't appear to be any dry air trying to invade the storm at any of the levels like yesterday afternoon/evening. Current mid-level image (where dry air can do some damage... top = current, bottom = last evening) -

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.09.20190904.162419-watervapor-09042019.gif

COD-GOES-East-subregional-Florida.09.20190903.230114-mid-level-wv-09032019.gif

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