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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Doesn't seem to be moving anymore again. Pretty much sitting over the same spot the past few hours. 
I swear this thing has only moved 10 miles in the past five days. :arrowhead: Why can't snowstorms do that? :lol: 

I see the blue turd has made an appearance. LMAO

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06z GFS is showing 10-15"+ of rain in SE South Carolina on the NW flank of Dorian. due to places getting stuck in persistant rainbands as the storm pivots from NNW-N-NE direction in the 18-24 hour time frame.

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3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

West side of storm looks much stronger this morning, probably why rain totals increased.


.

agreed and although the East side appears to be hurting that can easily fill back in 

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As of 9 am, steady as it goes (same speed/heading) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 041257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
900 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Latest storm surge estimates hot off the twitter machine -

EDn1qcCU4AAIT1S.jpg

And AF304 recon is in bound to Dorian.

The eye is getting up near the FL/GA border.

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20190904.130719-truecolor-09042019.gif

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The core is just too much of a mess/too much dry air to expect any reintensification. what matters at this point is any tweaks to the track, which could effect amount of storm surge in places like NC.

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14 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

West side of storm looks much stronger this morning, probably why rain totals increased.


.

Yes, I was just noticing this and then turned on the TV and the met said that it’s trying really hard to intensify. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In that sat shot it is looking a tad healthier to me than it has in the last 24-36 hours.....maybe it's just me/my imagination though lol????

No it is not your imagination, go look at the meso (images updates every 1-2 minutes)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=ir

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Need recon to confirm but radar indicates the beginnings of a defined eyewall to the North and East of the center. This is in conjunction with a burst of -70C cloud tops to the East and North of the center on the recent IR loop. If that new convection can completely wrap around the center it should be game on.

Even though the shear is actually quite strong to the North, it could actually be helping in this case enhance outflow to the North and ventilate the hurricane.

HUNCYnn.gif

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Need recon to confirm but radar indicates the beginnings of a defined eyewall to the North and East of the center. This is in conjunction with a burst of -70C cloud tops to the East and North of the center on the recent IR loop. If that new convection can completely wrap around the center it should be game on.

Even though the shear is actually quite strong to the North, it could actually be helping in this case enhance outflow to the North and ventilate the hurricane.

HUNCYnn.gif

Recon is flying through the outer bands so it should be getting to the eye soon.

recon_AF304-4305A-DORIAN_dropsondes-09042019.png

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Integrated Kinetic Energy for this system was 57 TJ and increasing a couple days ago. Further, the track likely impeded the Gulfstream which could lead to additional water rise. Surge forecasting is tricky at best and the local surge warning products have backed off. Hopefully they are correct as I'd think there would be a fair amount of water piling into those coastal bends through tonight. 

IKE.JPG

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5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure looks like a northeast turn is in the works, prior to 80W, which would be good news for SC/NC

 

 

Per the 10AM update it's still moving on a 330 degree heading which is the same as its been since yesterday. NNW.

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Even if the center tracks just offshore, the Carolina coastline looks to get raked by the Western eyewall the entire way up.

A quicker turn NE would however probably spare Savannah.

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28 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Someone confirm, but to my eyes it looks like on IR it is moving NNE now

I think if you stare at the convoluted eye (on IR) it makes it seem that way but I think they go by the whole storm motion vs what is swinging around inside the eye (and as noted it is still going NNW).  With something that big, I would expect before it shifts to NE, it would start going N first.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Even if the center tracks just offshore, the Carolina coastline looks to get raked by the Western eyewall the entire way up.

Yeah that would probably worse than actually making landfall, especially with a large eye

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Dorian will probably continue to intensify or at least maintain itself longer if it stays further offshore. The shelf waters immediately off the coast are warm but shallow. That would keep it on top of the Gulf stream longer too. 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Dorian will probably continue to intensify or at least maintain itself longer if it stays further offshore. The shelf waters immediately off the coast are warm but shallow. That would keep it on top of the Gulf stream longer too. 

I don't think we will see restrengthening. At most it will maintain for a bit.

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