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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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13 minutes ago, fluffydelusions said:

At what point is it supposed to start going due north rather than NW?

About 2pm Wednesday afternoon. That will be a potentially critical time. Perhaps the more critical moment will be around 12 hours later when the projected turn to the northeast is forecast to begin. A delayed turn of just an hour or two could put Charleston in the eyewall. The current forecast has the storm center passing about 45 miles southeast of CHS which suggests the eyewall might only be 25 miles away on current forecast track

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Reminder that all josh related post to be made in banter to keep this thread as focused as possible

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5 hours ago, f2tornado said:

If this forecast verifies for Charleston then it would only be second to Hugo. 

surge.JPG

And for Fort Pulaski (nearer Savannah and my interests in Fripp Island), last I looked, Dorian would be a close third behind Matthew and Irma. Matthew was about 12.5 and Irma about 12.2. Last I looked, Dorian was forecast to be 10.9.

OT, but I don't think Hugo showed up even in the top 10 historic tides at Fort Pulaski. For Beaufort County, HHI, and southward, Hugo was just a run-of-the-mill stormy night. 

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6 pm update (included the recent pressure drop) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 032153
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND LASHING
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

The eyewall of Dorian continues to move away from Grand Bahama
Island. However, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge
will continue over that island for a few more hours.

The core of the hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore
of, the east coast of Florida.  A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)
and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) were recently reported at a
weather station at Sebastian Inlet.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

 

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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Good news!!!! :clap:

Glad to hear it! Epic footage from him and Edds to come

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2 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Bands pushing much closer to the coast of FL with Tornado warnings in the Vero area

Was looking at the radar in that area and was wondering if there were waterspouts off the coast as there looked like there were some potentials out over the water.  They apparently just cancelled the TOR.

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12 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Bands pushing much closer to the coast of FL with Tornado warnings in the Vero area

Yeah, watching that radar the past hour there are definitely some pretty stormy conditions coming into that area N of Cocoa Beach.  Wet and windy night at Disney World.

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1 minute ago, Regan said:

The 18z GFS is way inland in NC. Am I seeing things?  

8BA64710-9AA9-4CD9-9375-3FEF57F5425A.gif

Yes. In 2 weeks

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12 minutes ago, fluffydelusions said:

 

At 1:21 and 2:24 in the video you can see the government complex that Josh and lots of residents escaped to. Looks intact.

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NHC:

8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 28.1°N 78.8°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

212619_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

...looks like the forward motion doesn't really speed up until it's at South Carolina.

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Wont be until tomorrow for aerials of Grand Bahama/Freeport I think, the last rainbands are finally there leaving now and they need the winds to die down first.

Just realized that Dorian was the name that replaced Dean. Both storms made landfall at category 5 intensity (only time that has happened in the naming list).

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8 pm update/cone (central pressure fluctated back up) -

Quote
500 
WTNT35 KNHC 032348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN LASHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

 

212619_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-8pm.png

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Orlando has officially made it into the rain bands. Not many recent model runs had much rain reaching that far inland. 

The latest motion is still 325 degrees. It’s going to need to start turning North pretty soon to keep the stronger bands offshore.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Orlando has officially made it into the rain bands. Not many recent model runs had much rain reaching that far inland. 

The latest motion is still 325 degrees. It’s going to need to start turning North pretty soon to keep the stronger bands offshore.

The heavier stuff too...

kmlb_20190904_0014_BR_0.5.png

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32 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The heavier stuff too...

kmlb_20190904_0014_BR_0.5.png

 

So crazy, if you looked at that radar image and didn't know about the forecasted curvature you would think a crushing was imminent for the FL coast.

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