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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Those saying East Coast “dodged a bullet” are already forgetting a key lesson of what we have learned about hurricanes in recent years. Just because a Cat 4 or 5 storm weakens, it still pushes a surge closer to its original strength, instead of its weakened state.  

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KMLB radar is showing that convection has now fully wrapped around what is left of the core, although small banding features seem to be growing inside of that directly around the center. Looks like Dorian is trying to rebuild its core. IR presentation continues to show warming cloud tops near the center so obviously the weakening hasn't stopped yet.

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3 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Is this long term or just a snapshot in time?  Just trying to learn.

Since the 5am adv from NHC, the pressure has been steadily rising 1mb every hour 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

KMLB radar is showing that convection has now fully wrapped around what is left of the core, although small banding features seem to be growing inside of that directly around the center. Looks like Dorian is trying to rebuild its core. IR presentation continues to show warming cloud tops near the center so obviously the weakening hasn't stopped yet.

EWRC?

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Still a west vector and OMG-drier air over land than 50 miles out into the Ocean-that Never happens!!

Dorian is moving NW at 3mph per latest advisory from NHC... what west vector are you talking about?

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I did some cursory research this morning and found that nearly all the high-end 2's to major hurricanes that have ever come close to, or impacted the Carolinas had pretty great forward speed (ie. Hazel). Hazel traversed the entire eastern US in less than a day from landfall.

Unscientific reasoning, but I think its imperative for these storms to never slow down if they are to maintain major strength while gaining latitude.

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I did some cursory research this morning and found that nearly all the high-end 2's to major hurricanes that have ever come close to, or impacted the Carolinas has pretty great forward speed (ie. Hazel). Hazel traversed the entire eastern US in less than a day from landfall.

Unscientific reasoning, but I think its imperative for these storms to never slow down if they are to maintain major strength while gaining latitude.

I hope your research is correct and this storm recurves!

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IMHO it will be hard for Dorian to regain much strength, if any as it is still moving very slowing over upwelled waters. Now whether it can hold of any further weakening will depend on how warm (and how deep that warm layer of water is) as it moves northward paralleling the Florida coast and points northward.

There might be strengthening of sorts as it transitions to a non tropical system as it moves past the Carolinas and goes further north and east. 

 

 

 

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thats two @ROOSTA that i've removed. dont bother with a third time. 

feel free to head over to banter though if you want to start a fight

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I did some cursory research this morning and found that nearly all the high-end 2's to major hurricanes that have ever come close to, or impacted the Carolinas had pretty great forward speed (ie. Hazel). Hazel traversed the entire eastern US in less than a day from landfall.

Unscientific reasoning, but I think its imperative for these storms to never slow down if they are to maintain major strength while gaining latitude.

You're not wrong. This is exactly how most of the powerful New England cat 3's and 4's made landfall. Their forward speed was 30+ mph as they came up the coast so they didn't have time to interact with the cooler waters etc. Dorian is going to struggle the rest of its life up the coast. Maybe a bit of strengthening due to the gulf stream but that's gonna be it. Too many negatives are coming with shear, dry air, and the core being weakened.

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SHIPS did a great job with the early RI signal back on 8-28.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166724009750216710

Latest SHIPS diagnostic message on Tropical Storm #Dorian: There's an abnormally high (44%) chance of rapid intensification of 45kt in 36 hours. This is 10 times higher than the climatological mean. Bold stance.
 
 
Image
 
10:47 AM · Aug 28, 2019·
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I expect more of a Northerly turn later today but if you follow the current path and trajectory, that would bring the center very close to the Port Canaveral area. 

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3 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

You're not wrong. This is exactly how most of the powerful New England cat 3's and 4's made landfall. Their forward speed was 30+ mph as they came up the coast so they didn't have time to interact with the cooler waters etc. Dorian is going to struggle the rest of its life up the coast. Maybe a bit of strengthening due to the gulf stream but that's gonna be it. Too many negatives are coming with shear, dry air, and the core being weakened.

Agree with this but I think the rain and surge it brings is still going to be troublesome, especially for Carolinas. It's not all about the wind. 

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Agree with this but I think the rain and surge it brings is still going to be troublesome, especially for Carolinas. It's not all about the wind. 

Saving grace is the NE approach and the rapid exit. SE-E winds turn W-NW and flush the water back out very quickly.

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5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Saving grace is the NE approach and the rapid exit. SE-E winds turn W-NW and flush the water back out very quickly.

Look how much the wind field expands as the system turns up the coast and transitions.

flhYKTW.gif

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Look how much the wind field expands as the system turns up the coast and transitions.

flhYKTW.gif

Stanton is right, though.  The storm is paralleling the coast while moving faster as it gains latitude.  This will help to keep water rises lower then say a direct LF perpendicular to the coast line.  Once the center passes any singles point, the winds will shift and push the surge out.

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5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Stanton is right, though.  The storm is paralleling the coast while moving faster as it gains latitude.  This will help to keep water rises lower then say a direct LF perpendicular to the coast line.  Once the center passes any singles point, the winds will shift and push the surge out.

Might be lower but someone put up a NOAA graphic that had 10.3 feet at Charleston which is major flooding...

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9 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Stanton is right, though.  The storm is paralleling the coast while moving faster as it gains latitude.  This will help to keep water rises lower then say a direct LF perpendicular to the coast line.  Once the center passes any singles point, the winds will shift and push the surge out.

It's not really about the center anymore at that point. You have an extra tropical system. Think of Sandy. The center came into Southern NJ but the largest impacts from surge were in the NYC area and Central/Northern NJ beaches. The build up of water is going to begin well before the center arrives.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's not really about the center anymore at that point. You have an extra tropical system. Think of Sandy. The center came into Southern NJ but the largest impacts from surge was in the NYC area and Central/Northern NJ beaches. The build up of water is going to begin well before the center arrives.

Agreed, but the Sandy made LF perpendicular to the coastline and piled up water for hours in those areas north of the central NJ coastline.  Dorian will not.

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5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Agreed, but the Sandy made LF perpendicular to the coastline and piled up water for hours in those areas north of the central NJ coastline.  Dorian will not.

Sandy was also the biggest Atlantic hurricane ever, not sure why any comparison was made.

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9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Sandy was also the biggest Atlantic hurricane ever, not sure why any comparison was made.

The comparison is that both storms were transitioning to extra tropical with expanding wind fields spreading out. Think of a tightly wound coil of rope unraveling. The energy is spread out across a much larger area.

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7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

2pm update breaks the streak. Maintains pressure at 959.

But there's more!  Up to 5 mph now.

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 031753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN'S CORE MOVING FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE
ON GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

 

152656_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-2pm.png

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