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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Looks like Dorian was done making westward progress 36 hrs ago.

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Most of the 12z tropical guidance has Dorian either maintaining current intensity or continuing on a slight weakening trend. The waters ahead are plenty warm enough for the next two days or so but the upper air environment is not.

fPtW284.gif

hF21kuf.gif

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anyone hear from Josh?

He has been reported missing  according to a twitter account. 

The mods have requested that any questions about Josh's whereabouts be moved to banter

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Man this thing hasn't moved YET? (something told me that it would still be in the same place when I woke up, lol) Mercy...Has it stalled longer than what was originally forecasted, or is this about right? (those poor people...)

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Radar appears the eye is trying to reform a little west of the current position..Reminds me of a strong summer thunderstorm that sits in place and eventually dies out.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does a weaker system get steered any differently in next 24 hours in this situation.... 

I would think not.   

 

This thing is going to be racing by the time it reaches the Carolinas....and should blast right by that area quickly and OTS, limiting the damaging effects I'm thinking.  

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Sheer levels are pretty decent ahead of the storm, but I wonder how that holds as the day unfolds.  Also, recent microwave data shows weakening on the westward side but Levi mentioned the following: 

#Dorian's eyewall is open on west side.

This may change. The left, land-facing side may get beefier w/ time. 

So far, ocean heat fluxes have come from south side & rotated around to make east side strong. Tonight & tmrw, fluxes will come from north side, making west side strong

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Sheer levels are pretty decent ahead of the storm, but I wonder how that holds as the day unfolds.  Also, recent microwave data shows weakening on the westward side but Levi mentioned the following: 
#Dorian's eyewall is open on west side.
This may change. The left, land-facing side may get beefier w/ time. 
So far, ocean heat fluxes have come from south side & rotated around to make east side strong. Tonight & tmrw, fluxes will come from north side, making west side strong
Here is the actual tweet since you didnt link it:
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168891642155323394/photo/1


Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does a weaker system get steered any differently in next 24 hours in this situation.... 

A weaker system would move North more slowly. A deeper system would feel the trough more.

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There is only so long a hurricane can roll in it's own excrements before it takes it's toll. Weakening is great news it's too bad that the Bahamas had to be the punching bag.

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Although cloud filled, long range radar out of KMLB still shows a well defined eye with signs of convection beginning to wrap around the Western side of the eyewall. In addition, current IR loop shows cooling cloud tops in the Eastern half of the storm. While dry air and shear to the North are undoubtedly an issue moving forward, I believe the weakening trend should level off as Dorian begins to move.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Although cloud filled, long range radar out of KMLB still shows a well defined eye with signs of convection beginning to wrap around the Western side of the eyewall. In addition, current IR loop shows cooling cloud tops in the Eastern half of the storm. While dry air and shear to the North are undoubtedly an issue moving forward, I believe the weakening trend should level off as Dorian begins to move.

 

Just now, psv88 said:

Wow. Storm looks horrendous. May not be a hurricane for much longer 

Never change, guys. You’re the best

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Although cloud filled, long range radar out of KMLB still shows a well defined eye with signs of convection beginning to wrap around the Western side of the eyewall. In addition, current IR loop shows cooling cloud tops in the Eastern half of the storm. While dry air and shear to the North are undoubtedly an issue moving forward, I believe the weakening trend should level off as Dorian begins to move.

Can you show me what you're looking at? I'm seeing dry air being pulled into the core and a ragged, expanding mess.

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NHC definitely agrees with the steady state idea.

Quote
INIT  03/1500Z 27.1N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 29.2N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 32.1N  79.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

I'm taking the under.

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Yes dry air is an issue, which I said, but Dorian is still producing plenty of -60 to -70 cloud tops to the North and East of the center which I circled. You can also see the beginnings of a ragged eye. I'm not saying Dorian is going to make a full recovery and become a strong hurricane again, just that the weakening trend should stop for awhile.

WWqW5o6.png

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Although cloud filled, long range radar out of KMLB still shows a well defined eye with signs of convection beginning to wrap around the Western side of the eyewall. In addition, current IR loop shows cooling cloud tops in the Eastern half of the storm. While dry air and shear to the North are undoubtedly an issue moving forward, I believe the weakening trend should level off as Dorian begins to move.

Current IR is showing the storm looking worse and worse with warming cloud tops...

1.jpg

2.jpg

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11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Idk man. The core is exposed and ragged. I think the goose is cooked 

The core is certainly not exposed.

The storm looks pretty horrendous compared to what it was 48 hours ago but we've seen a lot worse looking canes over the years.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes dry air is an issue, which I said, but Dorian is still producing plenty of -60 to -70 cloud tops to the North and East of the center which I circled. You can also see the beginnings of a raged eye. I'm not saying Dorian is going to make a full recovery and become a strong hurricane again, just that the weakening trend should stop for awhile.

WWqW5o6.png

I'm in the camp of some reorganization.  This storm was a beast...I just don't see it folding out in the next 12 hours.

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